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3/16 NBA DFS: Millsap makes sense on Monday

3/16 NBA DFS: Millsap makes sense on Monday
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – NBA DFS – March 16th, 2015

Welcome to Monday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”.  Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.

Point Guard

Top Play:

Russell Westbrook (OKC) – He’s the top overall play on Monday’s slate and once again the decision to use him comes down to roster construction practices as opposed to his specific value threshold. Westbrook needs 55-60 Fantasy points to earn his price tag. Westbrook has hit this threshold in seven of the last eight games and shown 80-90 point upside in this recent stretch. He faces the Mavericks who rank 19th in defensive efficiency against point guards and 15th in overall defensive efficiency. Vegas expects a healthy environment (Mavericks five point favorites, 212.5 total) which should foster Westbrook’s production. On the other hand, Westbrook is on a back-to-back and playing his third game in four nights. Ultimately the decision comes down to roster construction. While Westbrook’s elevated floor makes for a nice foundation in cash games, a plethora of strong upper end values makes him less necessary. If injuries crop up and open a number of minimum priced value plays, Westbrook will become a better cash game option. As it stands of this writing, I think the depth of mid-tier value plays makes him a better tournament option. UPDATE: With value emerging everywhere, it’s a bit easier to fit Westbrook into rosters without negative consequences. I think this is a better cash game option now with fading Westbrook and attacking mid-tier values, a preferred tournament strategy.

Next in line:

John Wall (WAS) – Wall has started to round back into form and has the advantage of a slightly depressed price point, a plus matchup for opportunities, and rest. The Wizards are one of just six teams on the slate that are not playing in a back-to-back or their third game in four nights. The matchup for Wall is solid. The Blazers are a strong defensive team and they rank 13th in defensive efficiency against point guards, but they funnel a lot of opportunities to guards in the pick-and-roll. Portland allows almost 20 percent of their play types defensively to the pick-and-roll ball handler. The league average is just over 15 percent. This is also the most common play type for Wall as 38 percent of his plays come as the pick-and-roll ball handler. We expect a usage bump for Wall in this matchup that should mitigate any mild loss in efficiency. With a slight discount in the tag, we think he’s a next in line option that deserves consideration in cash games.

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