Daily Fantasy Rundown – NBA DFS – March 18th, 2015
Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.
Russell Westbrook (OKC) – If Durant remains out as expected, Westbrook should be right on top of his value thresholds. However, given his enormous cost and that cost forcing less reliable cheap guys in your lineup, Westbrook really needs to project to exceed value thresholds to be considered a top target in cash or tournament formats. I tend to prefer a more balanced roster construction so prefer taking one of the value play guards below over Westbrook even if their projected values in a vacuum are similar.
Next in line:
Stephen Curry (GS) – It should be a fun night for NBA DFS as there are a lot of different routes to take as it currently stands. If going the route of paying up at point guard, Curry is my preferred option in all formats. As we’ve discussed plenty of times before, Curry’s seasonal averages and consequently his DFS price are driven down by conservative minutes’ totals. Curry is averaging just 33 minutes a game both this month and on the season. That looks to me to be a conservative projection for tonight, leaving room for upside beyond it, in a game against a good Atlanta Hawks team. In 20 games decided by single digit points, Curry has averaged 35.4 minutes per game (with 14 of them at his season average or higher and just one game below 31 minutes). That amount of playing time, based on Curry’s per minute averages (1.28 FD points, 1.39 DK points), puts him at or above value thresholds across the industry. The higher expectation on Curry’s minutes combines with Klay Thompson‘s absence to make him a great play. Not only does Golden State being thinner at the guard spots also contribute to a higher floor/ceiling on Curry’s minutes, but his per minute numbers while on the court should improve. His season long usage rate of 28.1 sees a healthy bump to 31.7 when Thompson is off of the floor. The price tag on DraftKings is particularly appealing.
Jeff Teague (ATL) – While Curry is an attractive high end option, a balanced roster with upside at every spot is another alluring way to build rosters. Teague, like Curry, will benefit from what should be a competitive game and gets the added bonus of playing up in pace (Warriors are first in the NBA in pace). On top of that, Teague should see more usage with Kyle Korver out. On the season, Teague has a usage rate of 25.4 but that grows to 27.4 with Korver out, more than offsetting the slight drop off in assist rate. While it’s a tough matchup from an efficiency standpoint, the expected uptick in volume (minutes, possessions, usage) is more important. Also consider that Teague’s price point is pretty favorable. On FanDuel where he is priced five percent higher than the average cost of a roster spot, his average game puts him just two points below his value threshold.