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3/2 NBA DFS: Lock Wiggins in on Monday

3/2 NBA DFS: Lock Wiggins in on Monday
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – NBA DFS – March 2nd, 2015

Welcome to Monday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”.  Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.

Point Guard

Top Play:

Chris Paul (LAC) – I have a slight preference towards Paul over Curry tonight but it’s not as wide of a gap as you might think based on matchups. On the season Minnesota ranks 29th in defensive efficiency against point guards, but since Ricky Rubio has returned they rank inside the Top Five. Paul has been shredding defenses since Blake Griffin‘s injury. The bumps in usage rate have been modest, but noticeable. Paul posted a 24percent usage rate since the All Star Break (22.8 percent on the season) and yesterday he topped 26 percent. He’s topped 44 FanDuel points in seven of his last 10 games and his value thresholds on most sites are right around 45 Fantasy points. He’s slightly ahead of Curry as our top point guard play and in contention for the top overall spot.

Next in line:

Stephen Curry (GS) – The Warriors are playing their fourth game in five nights which is the primary reason I’m putting Curry behind Paul on Monday’s short slate. The matchup with Brooklyn is more neutral than great (11th in defensive efficiency against point guards), but Curry’s price point around the industry is trading at a very slight discount.

Value Plays:

Greivis Vasquez (TOR) – With Kyle Lowry out, we expect Vasquez to shoulder the point guard responsibilities once again. With Lowry off the floor, Vasquez has posted a 22.8 percent usage rate and 26.5 percent assist rate compared to a 21.5 percent usage rate and 23.2 assist rate with Lowry on the floor. The usage boost is just a small part of the increased value for Vasquez. He played 34 minutes last time out and on the season he’s averaging just 22.8 minutes per game. It’s difficult to envision scenarios where Vasquez plays less than 30-32 minutes. On the season he’s averaged 0.78 Fantasy points per minute which if extrapolated out to 30 minutes puts him in the mid-twenties. His value thresholds on most sites are hovering in the low twenties. Throw in a plus matchup against the 76ers and you’ve got one of the better core cash game values going tonight.

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