Daily Fantasy Rundown – NBA DFS – March 28th, 2015
Welcome to Saturday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.
Russell Westbrook (OKC) – I don’t remember the last time that the Daily Fantasy Rundown started without Russell Westbrook being the top overall play. It sure won’t start today as Westbrook continues to be the top overall DFS play and his upside is unparalleled (40.2 percent usage rate, 51 percent assist rate without Kevin Durant this season). The big concerns with Westbrook tonight is his matchup against the Jazz (ranked dead last in pace and Rudy Gobert is an elite rim protector) and his high price point industry wide will make it difficult for him to meet value (averaging 1.39 Fantasy points per minute, 38 minutes of playing time gets him within three to four Fantasy points away from his value threshold). There are a good amount of value plays tonight and the Hawks might rest all their starters (creating more salary relief options) but my preferred choice of lineup construction this evening is a balanced approach. Westbrook remains in play but I’d rather have my exposure to him come via tournaments, where I could benefit from his mammoth upside.
Next-in-line: Stephen Curry (GSW) – (elite tournament option and an average game on DraftKings puts him above his value threshold; there are cheaper value plays available tonight at the point guard position but none of them carry Curry’s upside)
Dennis Schroder (ATL) – Is Schroder a good play? Yes. Schroder is an elite value play yet again as long as Jeff Teague remains out of the starting lineup. The Atlanta Hawks clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs last night and we’re assuming all their starters are questionable. They no longer have anything to play for in the regular season, which means you’ll continue to see Schroder’s name at the top of the value play list. Schroder is averaging .96 Fantasy points per minute and 33 minutes of playing time (what he usually averages as a starter); this combination puts him easily above value thresholds industry wide. At his current price point on all the sites I’ve checked, he provides awesome profit potential (26 percent below the average cost of a roster spot industry wide) regardless of his neutral matchup (Charlotte is ranked 17th in defensive efficiency against point guards). As of right now, Schroder might be in a position where he’s the number one option for the Hawks and his price point is nowhere near reflecting that situation. Continue to deploy Schroder in all formats and take advantage of his depressed price point before it catches up to his production as a starter.
Trey Burke (UTA) – Burke will have his hands full as he attempts to contain Russell Westbrook but if Dante Exum is out, Burke will be inserted into the starting lineup and hover around 38 minutes of playing time (as long as the game remains close). Burke is averaging .82 Fantasy points per minute and playing time into the high thirties puts him over his value thresholds on both FanDuel and DraftKings (above the average cost of a roster spot on DraftDay, where he should be considered for tournaments). The added possessions that Utah receives by playing an up-tempo Oklahoma City team (ranked seventh in pace, Utah is ranked dead last) is another positive contextual factor going for Burke tonight. Burke is a great value play that should be utilized in all formats as long as Dante Exum is out.