Daily Fantasy Rundown – NBA DFS – March 29th, 2015
Welcome to Sunday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.
Top Play: Russell Westbrook (OKC) – There’s not much to add here we haven’t covered over the past several days. Westbrook has a good shot of meeting value thresholds given his insane usage/rebounding/assist rates with Kevin Durant out and an elite game environment on a short slate (213 total, one point spread). However, his enormous price tag (around double the average cost of a roster spot across the industry) prevents him from being a primary value play. Target him in tournaments but go with a more balanced roster in cash games.
Next in line: Chris Paul (LAC) (nice uptick in tempo but a better tournament option, particularly on DraftKings where the price is friendly, due to opportunity cost at the position today)
Reggie Jackson (DET) – Jackson hasn’t delivered a sub-40 Fantasy point game since Greg Monroe (doubtful) has been out. In fact, he’s averaging 50.7 DraftKings points in the six games Monroe has missed, well above his 41.2 value threshold. Look at the increases he’s seeing on his usage/rebounding/assist rates the past six games: usage rate plus 5.2, rebounding rate plus 3.1, assist rate plus 32.9. The increase to his assist rate itself would be a great assist rate for an average guard. With Jackson carrying these responsibilities, he becomes a great cash game option. Sure, there may be one or two other guys that project for more value, but it’s awfully tough to fade the combination of floor and ceiling that Jackson has shown with Monroe out.
Goran Dragic (MIA) – Not that we ever get a good read on Heat players ahead of time, but I’m inclined to think that Dwyane Wade rests after having his knee drained yesterday. If that’s the case, Dragic will sport usage and assist rates in the high twenties (season long marks are in the low twenties). Between those increases and a really high floor on minutes (barring an injury or extreme blowout) for a Miami team that is fighting for a playoff spot (played at least 34 minutes in eight of his last nine games, averaging 37.4 outside of last night’s blowout loss on the front end of a back to back), Dragic is a safe option for cash games that also carries meaningful upside. Dragic will be at home tonight in a game with a tight three point spread.