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3/30 NBA DFS: Josh Smith is a core value

3/30 NBA DFS: Josh Smith is a core value
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – NBA DFS – March 30th, 2015

Welcome to Monday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”.  Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.

Point Guard

Top Play: Damian Lillard (POR) (gets an up tempo opponent in one of only two games with a total over 200; not a great individual value but tournament worthy due to game environment and lack of top tier point guard options)

Value Plays:

Mike Conley (MEM) – The point guard position today doesn’t really carry anyone I’d call a core value, but there are a handful of options that project to meet their value thresholds. Mike Conley is one of these options and seems to hold the most universal value on the night due to a combination of soft pricing (below the average cost of a roster spot on FanDuel and DraftKings but less valuable on DraftDay where he’s more expensive) and a strong matchup. An average game for Conley puts him right on top of his value threshold on FanDel, which showcases the soft pricing, and there are plenty of reasons to expect Conley to have a better than average game. He should see increased possessions against a Sacramento team ranking eighth in the NBA pace. On top of the tempo boost, Sacramento doesn’t provide much of a challenge defensively. They are ranked 26th in defensive efficiency against point guards. Ray McCallum gets attacked a ton in pick-n-roll handler situations (51 percent frequency), which is where Mike Conley generates most of his offense. McCallum is average in terms of points per possession allowed on those possessions but quite terrible in isolation, where he gets attacked more often than most point guards and is in the seventh percentile in points per possession. Conley doesn’t attack that way often, but when he does he’s effective (67th percentile), and the matchup may lead to increased frequency in that regard.

Kemba Walker (CHA) – Walker’s price is pretty fair, but there are a few other contextual factors working in his favor this evening. For starters, he hasn’t seen a dip in offensive responsibility with Mo Williams present, which has allowed him to maintain value. Secondly, he’s at home tonight, and Walker has one of the more consistent and extreme home/road splits I’ve seen. I’d tack on two Fantasy points to his baseline simply by being at home. Thirdly, Walker is playing way up in pace as Boston ranks fifth in the NBA in pace. Finally, on a day like today where there are several decent point guard options, I like to use team competitiveness as a tiebreaker. Minutes can fluctuate greatly this time of year, so there’s some value in utilizing a player like Walker in an important game. Charlotte is currently just a half game behind Boston in the standings, and Boston is just a half game out of the eighth and final playoff spot.

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