3/5 CBB DFS: Andrew Andrews headlines Thursday’s values
Welcome to Thursday’s edition of DCoop328’s CBB Daily Plays. This article will break down the best plays at each price range (based on Fanduel pricing). This will be followed by price-adjusted cash game rankings showing the best 50/50 and head to head plays for today’s slate.
Nigel Williams-Goss expects to play vs. Colorado, but Shawn Kemp Jr. is out with calf strain http://t.co/hurqIZwX05
— Husky Sports Now (@HuskySportsNow) March 4, 2015
With the news that Williams-Goss will play, our headliner Andrew Andrews takes a little bit of a hit but is still a good cash game option. The Andrews/Williams-Goss relationship is similar to Durant/Westbrook because they are two studs who have high usage rates on poor teams. When one is out the other is a top play, but when they both play they still can be good plays. Colorado is a good matchup for Andrews and he should still be a nice pick. Andrews is now my third ranked price-adjusted guard for cash games. Mike Anderson can be removed from consideration.
Frank Kaminsky (Wisconsin, Forward) – Frank the Tank comes in at a very hefty price of $10,400. But… There is a reason he is so expensive. He is an absolute beast and he is starting to heat up, just as he did last year. He is one of those players that does not have to put in 100% in all games because his team is so good, but when March Madness comes around he puts in full effort. To add to this, he gets a great matchup against the 38th fastest team in the nation, Minnesota. Kaminsky will be extremely heavily owned so fading him could be risky.
Daniel Hamilton (UConn, Forward) – Hamilton is one of my favorite players to own in Daily Fantasy college basketball. The reason for this is that he does not have to score to reach value. Over the past five games Hamilton has averaged 12 rebounds per game and six assists per game. Hamilton is basically the team’s point guard on offense and the team’s rebounding forward on defense. Hamilton has a very similar upside to Kaminsky at a $1,500 discount. The only difference is that he less consistent than the tank.
Mid Range Plays ($6500-$8500)
Will Cummings (Temple, Guard) – When I hear talk of Temple being a bubble team I just laugh. They are absolutely horrendous offensively other than Cummings. Cummings is Temple’s whole offense. He either shoots or assists on over 50% of his team’s shots. Cummings’ huge usage rate makes his Fantasy play extremely consistent, scoring 35 points in four of Temple’s last five games. Cummings is usable in both cash and GPP formats facing an East Carolina team that is slow paced but ranked 216th in adjusted team defense.
Andrew Andrews (Washington, Guard) – Besides Andrews’ amazing name, he is an absolutely lethal shooter. He has hit more game winning 3’s this year than anyone I can remember. But that is beside the point. Washington’s top player Nigel Williams-Goss is out for today, along with another starter Shawn Kemp Jr. With two of their three top scorers out, Andrew Andrews should play nearly the whole game and take 20+ shots. With his increased usage Andrews should blow past his value threshold. See Update on top.
Shaq Goodwin (Memphis, Forward) – Memphis’ leading scorer Austin Nichols is doubtful for today’s game. (Make sure to check Twitter to make sure he is not playing). Assuming Nichols is not playing, Shaq becomes Memphis’ number one scoring option. Nichols missed a stretch in February and Shaq averaged nearly 35 points per game over that stretch, putting him well over his DFS value threshold. Shaq makes a great cash game play no matter the status of Nichols, but becomes an elite play if Nichols is announced out.
Low Priced Values ($4500-$6500)
Mike Anderson (Washington, Guard) – This play is solely based on his increased usage rate with Williams-Goss and Kemp Jr. missing the game. Due to injury Anderson has stepped in to be Washington’s number two scoring option. See Update on top.
Duane Notice (South Carolina, Guard) – Notice is one of the streakiest players in college basketball. The key to Notice is to play him when he is cheap and starting to heat up. In the month of December he averaged 19.5 points per game and was priced in the $7,000 range. Since then he has been ice cold, dropping his price to $5,500. But over the last four games Notice has scored 16 points per game and 25 Fantasy points per game. Notice’s streakiness should give you a $7K player at a $5.5K price. Notice also gets a matchup against an Arkansas team ranked fifth in adjusted tempo, which will give South Carolina more possessions than usual and ultimately provide Notice with more opportunities to rack up Fantasy points.
Rodney Purvis (UConn, Forward) – Purvis has been extremely inconsistent all season but comes into tonight’s game coming off of a 40-fantasy point performance (8x value). This upside shown by Purvis at a miniscule $5,200 price makes him a great GPP play. When rostering Purvis beware that he has an extremely low floor, so I would not chase his past results and roster him in cash games. Purvis is GPP only option for me tonight.
Michael Humphrey (Stanford, Forward) – Humphrey has scooped up nearly all of Rosco Allen’s minutes since his injury on February 15th, averaging nearly 26 minutes a game (well above his season average of 11.8 minutes). Humphrey is still extremely underpriced at $5,100. Since the injury Humphrey has averaged 25 Fantasy points per game, way over his value threshold. Playing Humphrey as a value selection allows you to roster a stud such as Frank Kaminsky. Lock in Humphrey in your cash game lineups with confidence.
*Adjusted team statistics are from kenpom.com
Price-Adjusted Cash Game Rankings:
- Andrew Andrews (now ranked third, see update on top)
- Will Cummings
- Duane Notice
- Andre Hollins
- Mike Anderson (no longer an option, see update on top)
- Terry Whisnant II
- Delon Wright
- Chasson Randle
- Jabari Bird
- Caleb White
- Frank Kaminsky
- Daniel Hamilton
- Shaq Goodwin
- Michael Humphrey
- Maurice Walker
- Amidah Brimah
- Sam Dekker
- Jaylen Bond
- Bobby Portis
- Josh Hawkinson