3/5 CBB DFS Picks: Senior Day Special
With only 8 days until Selection Sunday we welcome you to Saturday’s Senior Day Special edition of DCoop328’s 3/5 CBB DFS Picks. Today we will break down the top plays at each price range (based on FanDuel pricing).
Ben Simmons (LSU, Forward) The usual question: To “Simmons or not to Simmons” is the question again today. Unless you are new to CBB DFS you should know that Simmons is one of the top scorers, rebounders, and assisters in the nation and is a viable play nearly every slate. On paper this is not a great matchup for Simmons, but this season he has shown that he is matchup proof. In a blowout win over Kentucky in the two’s first matchup, Simmons put up a 20-10-3 stat line in only 27 minutes of play. At Rupp Arena, Kentucky is favored and Simmons will likely play his normal 36-40 minutes. I think Simmons will elevate his game in what’s likely his final regular season college game against mighty Kentucky. I would not be surprised to see Simmons take 25 shots in this game leading to likely 30-40 real points and 50-60 fantasy points, well over his 4x value.
Tyler Ulis (Kentucky, Guard) In just over a year, Ulis has transformed from a serviceable sixth man on a great team, to a lead stud on a pretty good team. Ulis has repeatedly shown up in big games, and Saturday he plays in a huge one, facing the aforementioned Simmons and the overhyped LSU Tigers. Luckily for Ulis and the Cats, LSU leads the SEC in tempo and ranks 11th in adjusted defense. This up-tempo style plays right into the hands of a speedy point guard like Ulis who is 13th in the SEC in usage and has the league’s leading assist rate.
Zach Auguste (Notre Dame, Forward) Zach Auguste is our first Senior Day Special play of the day. Auguste has really come on down the stretch for the Fighting Irish, taking a lead offensive role (27.0 usage rate). Auguste is one of the best rebounders in the country with a 27.1 defensive rebounding rate (21st nationally). Auguste gets a great matchup against North Carolina St., the worst defensive team in the ACC, and also gets a projected senior day scoring bump, being ND’s only senior that plays regular minutes.
Other Top Plays: Roosevelt Jones (Senior Day), Marcus Georges-Hunt (Senior Day), Matt Costello (Senior Day)
Mid-Range Plays ($6000-$8000)
Kellen Dunham (Butler, Guard) Kellen Dunham is our second Senior Day special play of the day. Dunham is a three-point chucker (41% from three) and in his final game at Hinkle Field House, there is no reason to believe the senior won’t take ten three-pointers. This senior night usage boost was shown when Washington Huskies senior chucker Andrew Andrews scored a Division I season high 47 points in his final home game at UW on Wednesday. Dunham, although notorious for being a one category fantasy scorer, has provided five rebounds in four straight games. Assuming Dunham can put up 5-10 peripheral points, 30-35 fantasy points from the chucker is easily in reach.
Jamel Artis (Pitt, Forward) Contrary to popular belief, Artis is actually the most utilized player in the Pitt offense, shooting 25.6% of shots while in the game. Artis playing the small forward role, gives three category upside as a result of a top 25 in the ACC, rebound and assist rate. Pitt plays in a tempo up game against a soft Yellow Jacket interior that fouls more than any other team in the ACC. Tech’s foul problems give Artis (25th in the ACC in fouls drawn) an added scoring boost.
Myke Henry (DePaul, Guard) Henry is another player that draws the senior day boost playing for a terrible DePaul team. Henry, already DePaul’s top usage player (5th in the Big East), will have free reign to take more shots in his final home game. 6’6 Henry, playing the four position for the undersized Blue Demons, is also an elite rebounder – ranking 13th in the Big East in rebounding rate. In addition, Henry draws a tempo boost in a matchup against Isaiah Whitehead and Seton Hall. At the low price, Myke Henry gives stud scoring upside with a safe floor for his price, making him a great play in all formats.
Khadeen Carrington (Seton Hall, Guard) Carrington came into Seton Hall last season as a highly touted recruit alongside Isaiah Whitehead and Angel Delgado. All three have performed up to the hype but Carrington continues to be the cheapest of the three. Carrington takes 25.4% of the team’s shots while on the floor and ranks 20th in the Big East with a 16.7 assist rate. As a pure price play, Carrington is a great bet to put up a solid 22-25 point stat line, hitting his 4x cash game value threshold with ease.
Other Top Plays: Danuel House (Senior Day), Tomasz Gielo, Michael Young, Luke Kornet
Value Plays ($4500-$6000)
James Farr (Xavier, Forward) Coming off the bench for the Musketeers this season, Farr has arguably been their most important player. With stud big man Jalen Reynolds regularly in foul trouble, Farr has consistently stepped in and performed well. As a result of senior day, Farr will likely start this game and get 30-35 minutes of action, a significant uptick from his typical 15-20 minutes. When Farr has seen minutes, he’s performed consistently. During his last 30-minute game Farr put up 24 points, 11 rebounds, and three blocks for a total of over 50 fantasy points. Farr has amazing per minute stats as a result of an elite 25.5 usage rate, 23.3 rebound rate, and 4.5 block rate. Could a play get any better? Yes! Farr will likely be less than 10% owned in GPPs because his game logs aren’t pretty, so he’s not only safe in cash but a great GPP play.
Durand Johnson (St. Johns, Guard) Johnson is another high-upside senior playing on a terrible team who will likely jack up a ton of shots. Durand is already St. Johns’ most utilized shooter, taking 27.8% of the team’s shots while on the floor. An added bonus between Durand and the other senior chuckers is that he is the cheapest, coming in as a $5500 value play. Johnson is not great at racking up peripheral statistics, but his scoring upside on senior day makes him a great value in all formats with 40-point upside in GPPs.
Steve Vasturia (Notre Dame, Guard) Although Vasturia has had some recent woes, he is still one of the safest cash game guards. And now you get to plug him in at a discounted $5500 price! Vasturia plays 38-40 minutes basically every game, giving him ample time to hit value. He is a solid scorer, taking 19% of Notre Dame’s shots and hitting a solid 38% of his three’s. In addition, Vasturia is a solid peripheral player, reflected in his 15.6 assist rate. He draws a matchup against an NC State team – that as mentioned earlier – has the worst defense in the ACC. With an optimal price and matchup, Steve Vasturia is a lock and load cash game play for me.
Other Top Plays: Charles Mitchell (Senior Day), Shembari Phillips (if Punter Jr. Out), Ron Mvoulika (Senior Day), VJ Beachem, Nick Jacobs (Senior Day)
Good luck today everybody and as always if you have any questions hit me up in the forums or on twitter @dcoop328dfs.
* statistics courtesy of kenpom.com