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3/6 NBA DFS: Be King of the Hill on Friday

3/6 NBA DFS: Be King of the Hill on Friday
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – NBA DFS – March 6th, 2015

Welcome to Friday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”.  Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.

Point Guard

Top Play:

Stephen Curry (GS) – On DraftKings a lot of the value resides in the expensive options tonight, and there are a few reasons for that. First off, their scoring system benefits high volume players (bonuses for three pointers made and double/triple-doubles). Secondly, they’ve been quicker to adjust prices on the mid-tier value plays (in particular, the point guard and power forwards values are much more expensive on FanDuel relative to the average cost of a roster spot). Finally, the prices on a couple of top tier guys (most notably Curry and Cousins) is flat out too low. Curry is $9,500 on DraftKings giving him a value threshold of 46 points, slightly below his average of 46.5. So Curry simply needs an average game to hit value and there are few factors pointing towards him having a better than average game. For one, despite the high spread (10.5), this is a game against a good playoff team in the West, which should solidify Curry’s minutes and raise the ceiling there. He’s played 37 minutes in both contests against Dallas this season, despite the most recent one turning into a blowout. Secondly, this game features two up tempo teams with good offenses (first and 12th in pace, second and fourth in offensive efficiency), which not surprisingly has led to Golden State having the highest team total on the night at 109.5. Finally, Dallas is 18th in defensive efficiency against point guards, so slightly below average. A little bit of a studs and duds approach is okay on DraftKings tonight, but on FanDuel the mid-tier point guard values rule and I’d focus more on the expensive players in the frontcourt.

Value Plays:

George Hill (IND) – Hill is an underrated option going against an overrated defense. Something I noted Wednesday was we’ll start to put more emphasis on guys playing for teams that need to win as we enter the final month and a half of the season. That’s the case for Hill’s Pacers (in a battle to get one of the final two playoff spots) and Hill’s playing time has risen as a result of that and him moving further and further away from the injury that cost him most of the season up until the end of January. Hill, who is averaging 25.4 minutes per game, saw that rise to 28.1 minutes in February and 30 through two games in March. Those averages are probably light as Hill has been a part of a few blowouts recently, but did notch 34 minutes in his most recent competitive game against the Cavaliers. The rise in minutes would be important for anyone but are particularly so for Hill who is quietly averaging more than a Fantasy point per minute (1.04 on FanDuel, 1.11 on DraftKings). Simply based on the rising playing time and a price that still hovers around the average cost of a roster spot Hill has a decent shot at hitting value. However, the matchup is tremendous and offers a lot of profit potential. Not surprisingly, the Bulls defense has really dipped since Derrick Rose got hurts. Since he went down they are dead last in defensive efficiency against point guards, and it’s not even close (although Russell Westbrook has probably skewed this a bit). Aaron Brooks is a horrific defender (career 110 defensive rating), in part because he’s so small. Hill, who is effective on pick-n-roll ball handler play types (73rd percentile in terms of points per possession) should have his way with Brooks who is yielding .93 points per possession on these play types (15th percentile). Teams recognize Brooks’ weakness here as he gets attacked on these play types with the eighth highest frequency in the league.

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