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3/9 NBA DFS: Don’t rob from Peter, just Play Paul

3/9 NBA DFS: Don’t rob from Peter, just Play Paul
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – NBA DFS – March 9th, 2015

Welcome to Monday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”.  Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.

Point Guard

Top Play:

Chris Paul (LAC) – Paul’s salary is starting to adjust for the boost in Fantasy value without Blake Griffin, but it’s not quite all the way there. Paul has averaged 37.2 minutes per game since Griffin went down which is nearly a 10 percent move in playing time above his seasonal average without Griffin (34.5 minutes per game). On most sites his salary has risen 7-8 percent since Griffin’s injury, leaving a hint of value in just the playing time boost alone. Paul also experiences a solid bump in usage rate without Griffin (26.9 percent vs. 22.9 percent), assist rate (39.1 percent vs. 33.9 percent) and Fantasy points per minute (1.30 vs. 1.21). The matchup with Minnesota is tougher than it suggests on paper. The Timberwolves rank 29th in defensive efficiency against point guards this season but rank 14th over their last 10 games which coincides with Rubio’s return. The pace of play still makes the matchup above average and we believe Paul’s price point is slightly discounted. He’s a strong bet for the top overall play on Monday’s slate and our top point guard option.

Next in line:

Stephen Curry (GS) – On sites where Curry’s price point is severely depressed from Paul, I think he makes for an interesting pivot. Curry faces the Suns who have slipped to 20th in defensive efficiency on the season and play at the second fastest pace in the league. More importantly, Curry gets this game on the road where he’s averaged two more Fantasy points per game on the season. Part of the increased production on the road is due to a slight boost in playing time and usage rate due to more competitive environments. With the Warriors favored by just 5.5 points tonight, there is some upside in playing time for Curry and the Warriors other starters that we typically don’t see at home. I think he’s a viable secondary option to Paul.

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