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4/1 NBA DFS: Only a fool fades Aldridge on Wednesday

4/1 NBA DFS: Only a fool fades Aldridge on Wednesday
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – NBA DFS – April 1st, 2015

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”.  Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.

Point Guard

Top Play:

Russell Westbrook (OKC) – Westbrook is the top overall play on Wednesday’s slate. The Thunder still need a few more wins to cement their playoff spot and they’re at home in the game with the highest total of the evening (216) with a tight spread (Thunder favored by 2.5). We’re at a point in the season where targeting players in competitive environments comes at a premium. Westbrook’s value threshold on most sites is around 60 Fantasy points. In 32 games without Durant this season, Westbrook has averaged 58.9 DraftKings points per game. The question with Westbrook, as always, is whether the opportunity cost at the position and in the price tag, makes him a primary or secondary option. As of this writing, the depth of options at the point guard position push Westbrook behind James Harden and to a lesser extent Anthony Davis (price matters more here) in terms of priority for cash game lineup building. However, for tournaments, I think Westbrook makes an exceptional play; especially if the point guard values are solidified with more injury news.

Next in line:

Chris Paul (LAC) – We’ve harped on Portland’s defensive approach and how it funnels opportunities towards point guards, specifically in the mid-range. Paul has been the primary beneficiary of this defensive strategy when the two teams have played this season. In three previous games against the Blazers, Paul has averaged 27 points, 5.3 rebounds, 11 assists, and 1.3 steals per game while posting a 33 percent usage rate. On the season, Paul has posted just a 25 percent usage rate. Only one of those three games was without Blake Griffin. Paul’s price point varies around the industry and, like Westbrook, the opportunity cost for value at the position is meaningful. On sites like DraftKings where the price is down a bit, I think Paul has a similar probability at besting value thresholds at a more reasonable price tag.

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