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4/14 NBA DFS: Shine bright with Bledsoe on Tuesday

4/14 NBA DFS: Shine bright with Bledsoe on Tuesday
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4/14 NBA DFS: Shine bright with Bledsoe on Tuesday

Welcome to Thursday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”.  Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games.  Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.

Short Slate Disclaimer:

Short Slates are typically a day of rest for the NBA and should be a day of rest for you. The schedule typically ranges from two to four games and that will result in heavy overlap around the industry. The more overlap there is, the smaller the margin for error and the more variance that is introduced into the results. We understand that the appeal of Daily Fantasy is the ability to start fresh each day, but we recommend either avoiding short slate NBA nights altogether or playing a significantly reduced portion of your bankroll (I’ll personally take the night off from playing tonight with just three games on the schedule).

Short slate approach: I am going to approach today’s analysis a little bit differently since there are only two games on the schedule. I will be doing a game by game preview rather than position by position, something I have done before when we have less than four games on the schedule.

Boston Celtics AT Toronto Raptors

Line: Toronto +4

Total: 208

Pace rankings: Boston 5th, Toronto 20th

Defensive efficiency ranks by position

Against point guards: Boston 20th, Toronto 28th

Against shooting guards: Boston 7th, Toronto 25th

Against small forwards: Boston 14th, Toronto 7th

Against power forwards: Boston 22nd, Toronto 15th

Against centers: Boston 22nd, Toronto 10th

Rebounding rate rank: Boston 19th, Toronto 19th

Turnover ratio (from least to most): Boston 7th, Toronto 4th

Value Plays:

Isaiah Thomas (BOS) – With playoff seeding still for the taking, Thomas should play his regular bench role (around 26 minutes), which gets him close to his value threshold around the industry. The matchup is favorable (Toronto is ranked 27th in defensive efficiency against point guards) and if he’s effective on the floor (head coach Brad Steven has a tendency to leave the players that are being more effective on the court), he could get rewarded with a few extra minutes. His profit potential isn’t huge (usually never plays more than 30 minutes) but he’s a strong bet to deliver value at his current salary.

Tyler Hansbrough (TOR) – Hansbrough is averaging 35 minutes in his last five starts and if Amir Johnson continues to be out tonight, he will draw another start. He’s averaging .70 Fantasy point per minute and 35 minutes of playing time gets him right on top of his value thresholds around the industry. The Celtics have trouble in the paint with big men (Celtics are ranked 20th in defensive efficiency against opposing frontcourts), setting the stage for Hansbrough to deliver value. His Fantasy production isn’t great but his 35 minute role is favorable and bodes well for his overall DFS value. He can be started in all formats this evening (particularly cash games).

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