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4/15 NBA DFS: Thunder will be heard from on Wednesday

4/15 NBA DFS: Thunder will be heard from on Wednesday
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – NBA DFS – April 15th, 2015

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”.  Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.

Today’s Format:

First off, thank you everyone for subscribing to us this season! Today will be the last day of content for the season, but look for some free content throughout the playoffs on DailyRoto.

As far as the final slate of the NBA season goes, I’m going to switch up the format a little bit. With so many people potentially resting or playing limited minutes, let’s take a team by team approach rather than position by position. This will make it easier to identify the potential scenarios that may unfold tonight and highlight some of the safer situations. In general, I’d advise playing a drastically reduced portion of bankroll tonight and perhaps look to have some fun multi-entering tournaments rather than attempting to optimize cash game lineups. As an example of the risk for tonight, this morning only three game lines were even posted on SportsBook, and none of those had any totals associated with them. More lines have since been released however.

Teams with something to play for (order within tiers is simply schedule based so don’t read into it)

Houston Rockets: The Rockets can end up anywhere between the second seed and the sixth seed, so this game is definitely important. That’s a huge difference, particularly in the West where you’ll want to delay seeing Golden State and get as much home court as possible. While the Rockets instantly get a big bump given that they are one of just a handful of teams with something important to play for, it probably couldn’t be a worse matchup. Utah is one of the best defensive teams in the league and runs at a very slow pace (dead last in the NBA). James Harden obviously has huge upside at the shooting guard position but Russell Westbrook is the expensive player to target in cash games. Perhaps enough salary cap relief arises that you can utilize both, but in general it’s a lot easier to find cap relief options at shooting guard. Dwight Howard is always a risky proposition but even in a sub-30 minute role he can pay off his current price tag (particularly on DraftKings). Trevor Ariza may not carry a ton of profit potential but carries one of the higher floors for today’s small forward options. In general, the Rockets players seem priced more favorably on DraftKings than on FanDuel.

Oklahoma City Thunder: While it’s not a bold call, Russell Westbrook strikes me as a must play in cash games tonight, despite his high price tag. Enough salary cap relief options should pop up to allow you to fit that salary in, and he is in the best situation of any single player tonight. The Thunder have to win to keep their playoff hopes alive, and they’ll continue to ride the NBA’s leader in usage rate and second highest assist rate, Russell Westbrook. Aside from by far the most assured volume just due to game importance and usual offensive responsibility, Westbrook benefits from facing an up-tempo Timberwolves team, ranking 11th in the NBA in pace. They also can’t defend, ranking 29th in the NBA in defensive efficiency against point guards. Since there is going to be a lot of risk tonight anyways (risk in cheap players is my usual argument against a studs and duds approach), lock in the highest expected Fantasy scorer into your cash games. Teammate Enes Kanter is the safest center option this evening. The matchup provides profit potential (pace, Minnesota ranking dead last in defensive efficiency against centers and 26th in team rebounding rate) while the game importance sets a high floor. The secondary players on the Thunder (Steven Adams, Dion Waiters, Anthony Morrow and to a much lesser extent Nick Collison) are tournament options.

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