MLB DFS Daily Fantasy Rundown – April 17th, 2015
Welcome to Friday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
Weather: No major issues expected tonight. Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.
If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.
Yasmani Grandal (LAD) – Grandal actually ranks as our top catching option in our model and a top 30 hitter overall. Kyle Kendrick is one of the weaker starters on the slate and Grandal has demonstrated solid skills against RHP in his brief career (.345 wOBA, .172 ISO). A .345 wOBA and .172 ISO against RHP is good for a position player, but it’s exceptional for a catcher. Grandal has been blessed with strong lineup spots early in the season (second, fourth, or fifth) and is discounted below the average cost of a roster spot on most sites. He’s not only our top play at the position, but an elite value play on a day where salary relief is emphasized because of the stud starters going.
Evan Gattis (HOU) – If you’re not using Grandal, Gattis looks like the next best option when you take into account price tag. Jered Weaver‘s velocity is in a freefall (averaging 83.3 mph through two starts) and it’s going to impact his ability to generate strikeouts. Weaver is a fly ball oriented pitcher (48.7 percent fly ball rate vs. RHB since 2012) and Gattis thrives on power. He’s a bit “boom-or-bust” but most hitters are when speaking about Daily Fantasy value. His power upside is higher than Grandal’s and it comes at a similar price point, but his probability of generating positive points is a bit lower.
Additional catcher notes: Carlos Santana (CLE) is the top overall catcher play on sites he holds catcher eligibility. He ranks within our top 15 hitters overall in a friendly matchup against Mike Pelfrey (.326 wOBA allowed to LHBs since 2012). Wilson Ramos (WAS) is part of a Nationals lineup we really like against Sean O’Sullivan, but is priced a bit ahead of Grandal and ranks behind him in our rankings. Hitting sixth isn’t an ideal lineup spot, in terms of expected plate appearances, but they should be quality opportunities in a deep middle of the Nationals lineup. Travis d’Arnaud (NYM) has seen a boost in value hitting second for the Mets with David Wright out. The matchup with David Phelps isn’t particularly compelling (.318 wOBA allowed to RHBs as a big leaguer) but d’Arnaud is another cheap option with a favorable lineup spot if Grandal isn’t in the lineup. Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) is great against LHP and Jeff Locke isn’t an elite LHP but the park shift to Pittsburgh is a significant downgrade for Lucroy and the loss of Carlos Gomez really impacts the depth of the lineup. The individual matchup with opposing pitcher is solid, but the rest of the contextual factors are a negative for Lucroy.
David Ortiz (BOS) – Ortiz only ranks behind Mike Trout in our model. Ubaldo Jimenez has struggled with LHBs in recent years, allowing a .337 wOBA and 1.24 HR/9. Jimenez was phenomenal in his debut start this season but the velocity remained down, which has been a differentiating factor from his time in Colorado and his time in Baltimore. Ortiz has destroyed RHP even as he ages. Since 2012, he’s posted a .412 wOBA and .283 ISO against RHP. He’s not priced as aggressively as other top hitters, which actually makes him a modest value play on most sites.
Next in line: Albert Pujols (LAA) – Pujols has experienced some decline, especially against RHP, in recent years (.348 wOBA, .199 ISO) but he’s in the middle of the order on the team with the highest expected run total today. He ranks inside our Top 10 overall hitters and is a viable alternative to Ortiz.
Carlos Santana/Brandon Moss (CLE) – Santana is a good hitter against RHP (.346 wOBA, .187 ISO since 2012), while Brandon Moss is a great hitter against RHP (.369 wOBA, .266 ISO since 2012). They draw a favorable matchup with Mike Pelfrey who has allowed a .327 wOBA to LHBs since 2012 while generating just a 14.8 percent K Rate. They both rank inside the Top 15 hitters in our model, with Santana getting the slight edge because of lineup positioning and holding his value into the bullpen. Both are solid value plays, but price point leaves them a bit in limbo. On sites they’re priced close to Ortiz, I’d prefer to find the extra salary to bump up. While on sites with tougher salary caps, I’m emphasizing salary relief to afford strong starting pitching.
Ike Davis (OAK) – Davis is the salary relief option at the position. The matchup with Jeremy Guthrie is great (.377 wOBA, 1.66 HR/9 allowed to LHBs since 2012) but the park is one of the most difficult in all of baseball for LH power. In addition the Royals bullpen behind Guthrie is truly elite. This places a hefty emphasis on the first two plate appearances for Davis to earn his value. On a day with a lot of elite starting pitching, this is a more acceptable risk to take.
Additional first base notes: Freddie Freeman (ATL) gets a huge park boost in his favor and Drew Hutchison has struggled with LH power (.340 wOBA, 1.48 HR/9 since 2012). The only concern with Freeman is supporting cast but with his price point coming down, he’s an acceptable value play and an elite tournament play. He ranks alongside Moss and Santana in the Top 15 of our model. Chris Davis (BAL) and Edwin Encarnacion (TOR) rank a bit lower but have great environments for their power. Both are viable tournament options, though better as part of a stack because of their price points. Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) has a great matchup but an expensive price point. We’d prefer his exposure as part of Dodgers mini-stacks in tournaments. Mike Napoli (BOS) is another favored tournament option. He’s got rather neutral splits (.353 wOBA/.208 ISO against RHP since 2012) and the Red Sox have the second highest team total. If Justin Smoak (TOR) lands a Top Five spot in the lineup, he’d surge ahead of Ike Davis as our preferred cheap option at first base.
Robinson Cano (SEA) – Cano remains a great hitter against RHP even if his last few years’ performance is inflated by his time at Yankee Stadium. Cano posted a .327/.398/.493 line (.382 wOBA) against RHP last season. He’s in a tough hitting environment at SAFECO Field but Yovani Gallardo (.321 wOBA, 24 percent LD Rate allowed to LHBs since 2012) is a fair matchup. On sites like DraftKings where Cano’s tag is priced down due to environment, he’s a very strong play. He and Jason Kipnis rank right next to each other as Top 30 options in our model.
Jason Kipnis (CLE) – Kipnis isn’t as skilled of a hitter as Cano (.338 wOBA, .146 ISO against RHP since 2012) but he draws a more favorable matchup on Friday. Mike Pelfrey has yielded a .327 wOBA to LHBs since 2012 but he projects worse (.333 wOBA against LHBs by ZiPS) as he’s benefited from some unusually low BABIPs. Kipnis has a great lineup spot and his expected plate appearances are a bit stronger than Cano as a road hitter, which makes up for much of the gap in skill. On sites Kipnis is priced substantially cheaper, he’s the better option.
Additional second base notes: Jose Altuve (HOU) doesn’t rate as highly as Kipnis or Cano in our model but the matchup with Weaver’s declining velocity is one we’d like to attack in tournaments. He makes sense as a featured player in Astros stacks. If you’re not paying for one of the second basemen mentioned above, I think it’s best to just punt the position. This is best evaluated when lineups come out, but potential punt options include: Alberto Callaspo (ATL) and Joe Panik (SF). Jose Ramirez (CLE) is priced a bit ahead of typical punt options, but he’d offer another cheaper route to the position if he’s hitting second. For each of those punt plays, we’re hoping for a second spot in the lineup. UPDATE: Devon Travis (TOR) is hitting leadoff for the Jays with Jose Reyes out. He’s another fine option where the price point is close to the punt plays.
Ian Desmond (WAS) – Desmond ranks inside the Top 20 overall hitters in our model. Sean O’Sullivan is the worst starting pitcher on this slate. ZiPS projects O’Sullivan for an ERA over five the rest of the season and strikeout rate below 15 percent. Desmond is a solid hitter against RHP (.341 wOBA, .186 ISO) and he’s a got a nice power-speed combination that plays well in DFS. The lineup spot will ultimately dictate how strong of a play he is on Friday but he’s hit second the last few days which is a great spot for value.
Erick Aybar (LAA) – Aybar isn’t a great hitter (.305 wOBA against RHP since 2012) but he’s often blessed with great lineup spots in a very good Angels’ lineup. He’s been hitting leadoff against RHP with Kole Calhoun out and if he maintains the leadoff spot, he’s an elite value play. Roberto Hernandez has allowed a .364 wOBA, 1.49 HR/9, and a 24.3 percent LD Rate to LHBs since 2012. The Angels have the highest team total on the day and Aybar is a cheaper way to access it at a thin position. Despite Aybar’s weak skill set, he ranks within our Top 35 hitters today.
Additional shortstop notes: If Aybar is leading off, the rest of the shortstop value plays fall a bit further behind him. If, however, Aybar is hitting sixth the value plays become more bunched. Jimmy Rollins (LAD) ranks well in our model with a leadoff spot against Kyle Kendrick but he’s a bit pricier around the industry. He’s a better option if both Desmond and Aybar fall on unappealing lineup spots. Jose Ramirez (CLE) would represent a fine alternative to Aybar on sites he holds shortstop eligibility if hitting second. Yunel Escobar (WAS) has been leading off for the Nationals, which is an offense we are comfortable attacking on Friday night. I’m comfortable using him as an alternative to Aybar if the lineup spot is poor. Everth Cabrera (BAL) also has the potential to earn punt consideration with a solid lineup spot in a high total game. His primary skill set (speed) is a bit neutralized by Ryan Hanigan who is a great defensive catcher, which is why Cabrera falls below Ramirez and Escobar as alternatives to Aybar. Jed Lowrie (HOU) doesn’t rate particularly well in our model and his price point isn’t compelling but a great lineup spot makes him a nice option as part of an Astros stack in tournaments.
Adrian Beltre (TEX) – All of the third base value plays are congested within our model so think of this group as all very similar options where price point can help separate them. J.A. Happ is vulnerable to RH power, allowing a .330 wOBA and 1.08 HR/9 to RHBs since 2012. Beltre gets a park downgrade and the supporting cast is negatively impacted with a LHP on the mound, but his individual skill set remains strong. Beltre has posted a .378 wOBA and .188 ISO against LHP since 2012. He ranks as a Top 40 hitter in our model.
Pablo Sandoval (BOS) – Sandoval hits fifth in one of the offenses with a higher team total on Friday. Sandoval has posted a solid .349 wOBA and .169 ISO against RHP since 2012 and much of that production has come in a far worse hitting environment than Fenway Park. We’ve highlighted Jimenez’s struggles against LHBs which makes Sandoval a compelling option on sites he’s not priced aggressively. He ranks as a Top 50 hitter in our model, but if priced the same I might choose Sandoval over Beltre for more exposure to the Red Sox elevated team total.
Kyle Seager (SEA) – Seager ranks slightly below the two options above in our model as his skill set isn’t as strong as Beltre and the scoring environment isn’t as strong as Sandoval. Seager has posted a .358 wOBA and .186 ISO against RHP since 2012 and he faces Yovani Gallardo who is an average RHP. Seager’s especially cheap on DraftKings where he represents a strong salary relief option if paying up for pitching.
Lonnie Chisenhall (CLE) – Chisenhall is the option that represents the best source of salary relief on most sites, but comes with the worst lineup spot. The Indians haven’t faced a RHP in almost a week and without Michael Brantley and Yan Gomes I’m hopeful there is an outside chance Chisenhall gets a more favorable lineup spot. Chisenhall has been solid against RHP in his major league career (.335 wOBA, .175 ISO) but we’re expecting growth from the 26 year old as he enters his peak power years. Chisenhall rates as a Top 50 hitter in our model, but he’ll drop some if he remains low in the order. A Top five spot and he’s one of the better values out there.
Additional third base notes: Luis Valbuena (HOU) ranks below all of these options in our model but has nice power upside against Jered Weaver‘s fly ball tendencies. I don’t mind taking a shot on his price point in cash games but he’s best in tournaments as part of an Astros stack. Chase Headley (NYY) rates well in our model given Nate Karns struggles against LHBs (.373 wOBA, 1.72 HR/9 allowed to LHBs in a limited sample – 77 batters faced), but in a tough hitting environment in Tampa Bay he falls down our list of preferences. Aramis Ramirez (MIL), like teammate Jonathan Lucroy, has a solid individual matchup but the overall scoring environment is poor and PNC Park really suppresses RH power which limits his upside. David Freese (LAA) is my favorite tournament play, as part of an Angels stack, as he’ll get a solid lineup spot against a below average RHP. He’s a bit pricey for cash games on most sites (DraftKings is an exception) and he doesn’t rate particularly well in our model (outside the Top 100) but the opportunities should be strong.
Mike Trout (LAA) – Trout’s the top overall play in our model and once again it’s by a relatively large margin. The gap between Trout and Ortiz in our model is equivalent to the gap between Ortiz and the 40th ranked hitter. Trout owns a .417 wOBA and .257 ISO against RHP and he’s getting a nice park shift in his favor playing in Houston. His price point makes him more of a tournament play than a cash game option as we recommend spending on starting pitching in cash games.
Next in line:
Bryce Harper (WAS) – Harper ranks third in our model and he’s far more affordable than Harper. He has a similarly great matchup as Sean O’Sullivan has yielded a .426 wOBA to LHBs in a very limited sample (86 batters faced) against big leaguers since 2012. Harper has been very good already in his young career against RHP (.374 wOBA, .212 ISO) and we project additional growth for the 22 year old. The Phillies bullpen has just one left handed reliever which should ensure at least three and most likely four plate appearances against RHP. If you’re spending in cash games on one outfield spot, he’s likely a better value than going all the way up for Trout.
Matt Joyce (LAA) – Roberto Hernandez has really struggled with LH power (.364 wOBA, 1.49 HR/9 against LHBs since 2012) which suits Matt Joyce well. Joyce has posted a solid .343 wOBA and .173 ISO against RHP since 2012 and he’ll enjoy a nice positive park shift in his favor playing against Houston. For a cleanup hitter on an offense with the highest total of the night, Joyce is a nice bargain around the industry.
Carl Crawford/Andre Ethier (LAD) – Both Dodgers outfielders are undervalued for their respective skills against RHP (.336 wOBA/.364 wOBA) and in a good matchup against Kyle Kendrick who has allowed a .326 wOBA to LHBs since 2012. Lineup positioning will ultimately determine which is a better value and how great of a value they are, but I’m rooting for Ethier to hold the better lineup spot as he’s the better hitter and priced down more significantly. Both rank inside our Top 40 overall hitters.
Seth Smith (SEA) – Smith is another value play that I like taking advantage of this weekend against the Rangers because we have no concerns about losing plate appearances given they don’t have a LH reliever in their pen. Smith has crushed RHP (.362 wOBA, .204 ISO) in his career and he’s typically hit second in front of Cano, Cruz, and Seager which offers a lot of value. The price point hasn’t moved much despite his strong start to the season, which makes him a really solid value.
Chris Carter (HOU) – Carter comes with a ton of volatility, but his price point mitigates some of the risk and a matchup against Jered Weaver‘s declining velocity and elevated fly ball rates are a good time to indulge in the home run or nothing approach. Carter’s posted a .253 ISO against RHP since 2012 and Weaver’s propensity for fly balls (48.7 percent FB Rate against RHBs) gives Carter a better chance to unlock that power.
Additional outfield notes: If Kole Calhoun (LAA) returns to the lineup, he’s an elite option who ranks just behind Harper and Stanton in our model. On sites where he’s priced differently than those types of hitters, I’d take advantage. Mookie Betts (BOS) price point varies wildly around the industry. He’s a great value on FanDuel ($3,100) but priced as one of the most expensive outfield options on DraftKings ($4,900). He ranks inside our Top 35 hitters so anywhere he’s priced a little bit above the average price point, he’s a really good value play. Michael Bourn (CLE) is another hitter that I found with a wildly volatile price point. He ranks as a Top 60 hitter in our model with a great lineup spot on a good offense against RHP, but the price varies wildly. I’d prefer to take him where priced below the average outfield price.
Rankings (price not considered):
1) Clayton Kershaw (LAD)
2) Max Scherzer (WAS)
3) Corey Kluber (CLE)
4) Michael Wacha (STL)
5) Johnny Cueto (CIN)
6) Drew Hutchison (TOR)
7) Jimmy Nelson (MIL)
8) Bartolo Colon (NYM)
9) Sonny Gray (OAK)
10) Jake Peavy (SF)
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – Kershaw faces a good Rockies offense but gets them in a far worse hitting environment than they’re typically accustomed to. ZiPS projection system still projects the Rockies offense as above average against LHP but also with an elevated strikeout rate. Vegas is listing Kershaw as a -250 favorite in a game with a team total of just 6.5. Kershaw is the most expensive pitcher on the board, but with good reason. The depth at the position means Kershaw isn’t a must play, but he projects as our top overall starter.
Next in line:
Max Scherzer (WAS)/Corey Kluber (CLE) – The difference between Kershaw and Scherzer in our model is nearly equivalent to the gap between Scherzer and Kluber. Scherzer is facing the Phillies who project as a bottom five offense against RHP and are experiencing a downgrade in park environment playing in Washington. Their strikeout rate projects lower than the league average, but Scherzer should make up for any loss in strikeout potential with limited runs and greater innings. Like Kershaw, he’s a -250 favorite but in a game with a total of seven. Kluber has the least attractive matchup of the group but the matchup that projects for the most strikeouts. He’s on the road and a more modest favorite (-140) than the other studs but the strikeouts should be there against a Twins lineup that projects for a 20+ percent strikeout rate against RHP. On sites like DraftKings where there is a wide pricing gap between Kluber and Scherzer, he’s a very strong play.
Michael Wacha (STL) – The Reds rank 20th in wRC+ against RHP early on this season and have struck out 23.3 percent of the time against RHP. ZiPS projection systems projects the Reds as slightly below average against RHP when you park adjust their offense and they’re getting a downgrade in their scoring environment playing in St. Louis. Wacha doesn’t carry a big strikeout rate, but his price doesn’t require one as a secondary option and Vegas expects a low run scoring environment (Reds have a team total of three).
Drew Hutchison (TOR) – Atlanta projects as the weakest lineup against RHP in all of baseball. They do get a substantial boost with the park shift to Toronto and the use of the DH, but they’re a lineup without much power which is the best part about The Rogers Center. The Braves hold just a 3.5 team total in one of the best hitting environments in all of baseball. They don’t strikeout a ton and they’ve been solid against RHP early on, but the talent level of the lineup is well below average. Hutchison is one of the few mid-tier starters with double digit strikeout potential. He’s an exceptional tournament play and a fine option on multiple starting pitcher sites.
Jimmy Nelson (MIL) – Nelson dominated the Pirates in his first start of the season and did so at home. Now he gets another crack at them in a far friendlier pitching environment in Pittsburgh. The caveat for Nelson is this time he’s unlikely to get the benefit of facing a lineup without Andrew McCutchen. Nelson has always posted strong strikeout rates in the minor leagues (24.8 percent or higher in each of the last three years) and he’ll have the benefit of the platoon advantage over most of the Pirates lineup. The price point is still deflated but like Hutchison he makes for a better cash game option on multiple starting pitcher sites and tournament option on one starting pitcher sites.
Additional starting pitcher notes: The rest of the starting pitcher group lacks strikeout upside or compelling price points. Bartolo Colon (NYM) is priced fairly and has a plus matchup against a right hand heavy Marlins lineup, but the moderate strikeout upside pushes him behind Hutchison and Nelson in both tournaments and cash games. Jered Weaver (LAA) has a good matchup against a strikeout prone Astros squad, but I’m not confident in his ability to miss bats anymore. His average fastball velocity is down to 83 mph in his first two starts and his swinging strike rate is a career low 7.4 percent. He’s also getting a big park shift downgrade pitching in Houston. David Phelps (MIA) and Adam Warren (NYY) are the two super cheap options I’d consider in tournaments. Phelps flashed solid strikeout rates in the American League with the Yankees and gets the benefit of pitching in the National League against a below average Mets lineup. Warren gets a depleted Rays lineup (potentially no Longoria) in a great pitching environment. He’s posted strong peripherals as a reliever but we don’t have much data to evaluate his value as a starter. I’d only deploy this strategy in tournaments to stack expensive bats.
Macro Thinking, Stacks, and Tournament Notes:
This is a new section we’ve created to try and offer more dedicated macro thinking to our analysis and hopefully add more value to those playing tournaments. The format is a bit of a work in progress and we welcome feedback (firstname.lastname@example.org) if you have suggestions.
Top Tournament Stacks/Cash Game Mini Stacks:
1) Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are an elite offense getting a big park shift and facing one of the weakest starters on the entire slate. Three of their hitters rank inside the Top 10 in our model and the Angels have the highest team total of the evening. They represent expensive options but this is a group to target in cash games with mini-stacks.
2) Boston Red Sox
3) Houston Astros
4) Baltimore Orioles
5) Seattle Mariners
6) Washington Nationals
7) Los Angeles Dodgers
8) Cleveland Indians
The Red Sox have a similar team total as the Angels but they fall slightly behind in the rankings. They are at home which brings some added risk of only eight frames to hit and they’re facing Ubaldo Jimenez who was dominant in his first outing against the Blue Jays (34.8 percent K Rate, 76.9 percent GB Rate in seven innings). Jimenez’s velocity wasn’t up substantially so I’m largely writing the game off, but the performance is enough to at least push the Red Sox a tier below the Angels.
We noted Weaver’s velocity issues in the pitching section and that plays into the Astros hands. The Astros are far better against LHP and they’re a volatile offense in general, but facing a contact oriented fly ball pitcher is a blessing for their contact problems. I’m excited to take a chance on the power blossoming in this matchup.
The Orioles get a park downgrade but it’s a high total game (nine) and they’re on the road with a guaranteed nine innings for offense. Joe Kelly is an interesting pitcher to attack. He’s utilizing a four seam fastball more often along with his slider as he’s getting away from using just his sinker. This is going to increase his strikeout rate but also make him more homer prone. I’m not sure projection systems can evaluate him effectively until we get more data on how the repertoire change impacts him overall but Vegas is optimistic on both offenses in this game. Whenever I feel challenged evaluating a situation, I’ll lean on Vegas.
Seattle is an offense we’re usually hesitant to stack because of their platoon tendencies but the Rangers lack of a left handed reliever in their bullpen ensures a full complement of plate appearances for Dustin Ackley and Seth Smith. Add in the platoon advantage for their top offensive options (Cano and Seager) and you’ve got a nice stack with the top of the order.
The Nationals and Dodgers are heavy home favorites which pushes their expected at bat total down in our model as they’re more likely to get eight offensive innings than nine. They both face below average starters in Kyle Kendrick and Sean O’Sullivan and Vegas has solid team total (above four) expectations. It’s a good spot for value bats and stack fillers, while also a viable option for mini-stacks with the top hitters in the order. I’m less likely to full stack with the risk of just eight offensive innings.
I want to love the Indians as a stack against Mike Pelfrey and a sub-par bullpen behind him, but the lack of Michael Brantley in the middle really thins out the Indians lineup. It’s a great matchup in a neutral park but I’d like some more depth to the lineup before hopping in.
MLB Game Weather Forecasts
In these scales, a 10 strongly favors the hitter, a 1 strongly favors the pitcher while a 5 means that it should not influence the weather.
PHI at WSH 7:05: A 20% chance of showers. Temps in the lower 70s. Air density is a 6. Wind west 5-10 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 5.
MIL at PIT 7:05: Dry. Temps in the lower 60s falling into the middle 50s. The air density is a 5. Wind northwest 4-8 mph which blows out to right-center. The wind is a 5.
ATL at TOR 7:07: Retractable roof. Dry. Temps in the middle 60s to start falling to the lower 50s means that they may leave the roof open. If it is open air density is a 5 and the wind will be northwest at 5-10 mph lessening to 3-6 mph which blows in from left. The wind is a 5.
BAL at BOS 7:10: Dry. Temps in the lower 60s falling into the middle to upper 50s. Air density is a 5. Wind southwest at 8-16 mph to start lessening to 5-10 mph which blows out to left-center. The wind is a 6.
MIA at NYM 7:10: A 20% chance of showers to start the game. Temps in the middle 60s falling to near 60. Air density is a 5. Wind nearly calm. Wind is a 5.
NYY at TB: Dome
OAK at KC 8:10: A 20-30$ chance of showers/thunderstorms to begin the game increasing to 30-40% as we go through the game. Temps near 70 to start falling into the mid-60s. Air density is a 6. Wind northeast 5-10 mph which blows in from center. The wind is a 5. A 20-30% of a delay at any time, less than 10% chance of a cancellation.
Hour 1 chance of rain: 25%
Hour 2: 30%
Hour 3: 35%
Hour 4: 35%
CLE at MIN 8:10: Dry. Temps near 70 falling into the mid-60s. Air density is a 6. Wind northwest 4-8 mph which blows from left to right. The wind is a 5.
LAA at HOU 8:10: Retractable roof. Showers and thunderstorms will be around so the roof will be closed.
CIN at STL 8:15: Dry. Temps in the lower to middle 70s falling into the middle to upper 60s. Air density is a 6. Wind southeast 4-8 mph which blows from right to left. The wind is a 5.
TEX at SEA 10:10: Retractable roof. Dry. Temps in the lower 60s to start falling into the middle to upper 50s. Air density is a 5. The roof may be open. If it is, the wind will be northwest at 8-16 mph which blows from left to right. The wind is a 5.
COL at LAD 10:10: Dry. Temps near 70 to start falling into the middle 60s. Air density is a 5. Wind west-southwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph to start lessening to 5-10 mph late which blows out to right. The wind is a 7 to start falling to a 5.
AZ at SF 10:15: Dry. Temps in the upper 60s to start falling to near 60. Air density is a 5. Wind west-northwest at 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph to start falling to 8-16 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 7 falling to 6.