4/26 MLB DFS Picks: Marte Party
DailyRoto’s MLB Solo Shot Host, Logan Hitchcock, gets you headed in the right direction with his 4/26 MLB DFS Picks. Check out where his mind is at today when it comes to roster construction at FanDuel and DraftKings.
Where To Focus?
Unfortunately, Coors Field was broken last night. Stacking up Pirates and Rockies seemed like the best bet, but everything faltered when only seven runs were scored total. Does that mean we should abandon Coors completely tonight? No. But, with Gerrit Cole on the bump for the Pirates, I’m not as concerned about loading up exposure.
Where I’ll be grabbing my exposure at Coors Field will be with the Pirates bats against Jorge de la Rosa. The left-hander has been traditionally worse against right-handers in his career, allowing a .348 wOBA and 1.12 HR/9. The good news is the Pirates have more than a few right-handed hitters capable of punishing de la Rosa. Andrew McCutchen has struggled early, but I’m not going to miss out on using his career .417 wOBA and .237 ISO against southpaws. Furthermore, McCutchen’s outfield companion, Starling Marte has a career .372 wOBA and .185 ISO against southpaws that I’ll also be taking advantage of. The Pirates should also provide quite a bit of right-handed value with David Freese, Jordy Mercer, Sean Rodriguez and Josh Harrison to let you pay up for any of the numerous aces on the mound tonight.
If you are looking to find a stack outside of Coors Field, look no further than the New York Yankees. The Yankees won’t be playing in the slugfest inducing Yankee Stadium, but the Ballpark in Arlington is still a solid run scoring environment. Plus, the Yankees get a matchup with extreme flyball pitcher, AJ Griffin. Griffin has not been “awful” yet this season, but his flyball tendencies and a 5.33 xFIP suggest he has not been good. It’s perhaps not the most obvious stack option, but on a night with so many top pitchers, I’m going to be looking to exploit the bad ones.
I Need Some Value!
With Coors Field on the slate plus Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and others, you’ll need to find some value bats tonight. Rather than simply list one or two players out of the blue, I’m going to provide you with some teams that possess potential value options tonight.
Also consider, that value hitters largely depend on their position in the lineup. Given that I’m writing this piece well before lineups are out, it’s difficult to project certain value options on the offensive end. Be sure to check out the lineups in the best run scoring environments and see if anyone jumps out before lineup lock!
Oakland Athletics – The A’s are not a stout offensive team, but their matchup with Mike Pelfrey and their cheap price tags make them options tonight. Not sure what else to say about Pelfrey other than he is bad. The A’s will use Josh Reddick, Chris Coghlan and a bevy of others that are priced fairly low allow the industry and given their matchup are great options tonight. I prefer Reddick thanks to his lineup spot, but I’ll wait to see what Bob Melvin throws out tonight.
Minnesota Twins – Much like Pelfrey, Cody Anderson is not a pitcher to fear in the slightest. Anderson does not strike anyone out and has already struggled this season with the home run ball, despite being around average in terms of GB and FB tendencies. The Twins best value is Eduardo Nunez, who leads off and has a multi-hit and stolen base potential, but you can also grab their stars at lower than normal prices. Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano are easy accessible and if you’re looking for a contrarian tournament option, Oswaldo Arcia provides plenty of power potential.
Oh boy, this is not going to be a fun night for most hitters. There are so many top options on the slate, plus a game at Coors Field, so it’s going to be interesting to see the different strategies that are employed around the industry. Personally though, I’m in the camp that is paying up for pitching. As we know, pitching provides a bit more safety in predictability and given the extreme plus matchups tonight, there is no reason to mess around.
The crazy thing about this list is that I didn’t even include Chris Sale or Carlos Martinez another two options that are near the top of the board on nearly every other slate.
Kershaw is the clear favorite tonight against a really weak Miami Marlins team but the difficulty in using him is his price tag. Kershaw is $13,800 on DraftKings and keep in mind, you’ll need to roster two pitchers! I don’t think I need to begin to rationalize his play, as Kershaw’s extreme run prevention and strikeout skills make him the top option on the slate.
Scherzer gets to face a weak Philadelphia Phillies lineup at a slightly discounted price to Kershaw. There is a bit more volatility with Scherzer than Kershaw, but the strikeout baseline is still just as high. So far this season, Scherzer has struggled a bit with his command as he’s shown an increased walk rate from last season. Nevertheless, he still projects at well over a strikeout per inning and against this inept Phillies lineup he’s a huge favorite tonight. You won’t be able to roster both Kershaw and Scherzer on DraftKings, and while I’d pick Kershaw if choosing just one, Scherzer is a solid complementary option.
David Price follows suit with an equally enticing matchup against the Atlanta Braves. The Braves have the second lowest wOBA in the league to left-handed pitchers so far this season and are striking out at a clip of 23.7%. Price features a lower strikeout baseline and even more volatility than Scherzer and Kershaw but there is no one in this lineup that can hurt him as long as he’s pounding the strike zone. He’s in the upper-tier of pricing in terms of starting pitchers and he’s ranked third for a reason, but I still love him against the Braves.
Johnny Cueto draws a solid matchup with the San Diego Padres, but the downfall is his limited strikeout upside. Thankfully though, the Padres provide a solid boost in terms of strikeout baseline as they are striking out nearly a quarter of the time against right-handed pitchers. Secondly, the Padres have the second lowest wOBA against right-handers this season so far and are experiencing a huge negative park shift playing in San Francisco. I have a hard time paying for Cueto over the other options thanks to the lack of strikeouts, but he’s still a solid option tonight.
Yes, the former AL Cy Young award winner Dallas Keuchel is the fifth starting pitching option I’d use in cash games tonight. Keuchel draws a solid matchup with a left-handed heavy Seattle Mariners lineup in a great park for pitchers. Keuchel has struggled so far this season as he’s getting less swings outside the strike zone, but given his extreme ground ball ways and an increased strikeout baseline, I still think he’s in play tonight. IF paying up, I’d rather go all the way up and use Kershaw, Scherzer or Price, but he’s another feasible option.