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4/27 MLB DFS: Shield yourself from recent SP blowups

4/27 MLB DFS: Shield yourself from recent SP blowups
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MLB DFS Daily Fantasy Rundown – April 27th, 2015

Welcome to Monday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.

PLEASE NOTE: The content does not include the two games starting at 6:10 PM EST (KC-CLE, TOR-BOS). These games are being excluded on most sites with the exception of user created contests, so we’ve decided to remove them from the content. We will briefly cover them in our lineup alerts.

Weather: The game with the biggest weather implications today is the TEX-SEA game. Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.

If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.


Top Play:

Brian McCann (NYY) – McCann ranks as the top healthy catcher option in our model, but ranks as just our 60th best hitter option overall. The matchup with Nate Karns is a good one for LHBs. Karns has faced 100 LHBs in his major league career and he’s allowed a .357 wOBA and 2.11 HR/9 while walking 16 percent of the LHBs he’s faced. He does strike guys out (23 percent) and generally he’s gotten ground balls (48.3 percent) but the short porch in RF coupled with a favorable lineup spot (typically fifth) makes McCann your best bet for success at a thin catcher position.

Additional catcher notes: On sites that Victor Martinez (DET) is catcher eligible, he’s your top option (ranks 17th in our hitter model) and by a wide margin. Buster Posey (SF) is an elite hitter against LHP but Brett Anderson keeps the ball on the ground (limiting power upside) and the Dodgers pen behind him is lights out. As a result, Posey ranks outside our Top 75 hitters and generally isn’t worth his price tag. The rest of the catchers all rank outside our Top 100. There are going to be some opportunities that arise for punt catchers based on lineup spots, but as a whole this position looks like McCann or punt on sites that don’t have Martinez as catcher eligible.

First Base

Top Plays:

Paul Goldschmidt (ARZ) – Goldschmidt ranks as the top overall hitter in our model, slightly besting Miguel Cabrera. Goldschmidt has posted an incredible .440 wOBA and .293 ISO against LHP since 2012 and he gets to play in a better park environment than Cabrera. The supporting lineup is better for Cabrera but not by a huge margin as the Diamondbacks have guys like A.J. Pollock and Mark Trumbo who hit LHP well around Goldschmidt. The gap between Goldschmidt and Cabrera is narrow so on sites where Cabrera is priced below Goldschmidt he’s a great alternative.

Miguel Cabrera (DET) – Cabrera has “only” posted a .418 wOBA and .242 ISO against LHP since 2012 which is why he’s slightly behind Goldschmidt in our rankings. The Tigers team total is a bit lower than some of the elite offenses (four as opposed to 4.5) but their individual split against LHP is the strongest of any team in our projections. I find myself taking the price discount on Cabrera over Goldschmidt when spending at first base.

Value Plays:

Chris Davis (BAL) – Davis gets a matchup with fly ball oriented Hector Noesi (career 40.8 percent fly ball rate) in a terrific park for LH power in Camden Yards (increases home runs ~14 percent above the league average). Noesi struggles to generate swings and misses (career 16.6 percent K Rate) which amplifies Davis’ power prospects. His .384 wOBA and .284 ISO against RHP pushes him inside our Top 5 overall hitters.

Adam Lind (MIL) – Lind also ranks within our Top 10 overall hitters as the first base position is simply loaded. Jason Marquis has allowed a .384 wOBA and 1.93 HR/9 since 2012 against LHBs (encompasses over 550 batters faced). This is the worst individual split of any pitcher in action tonight. Lind is a great hitter against RHP (.387 wOBA, .206 ISO) and gets to play in a friendly park environment for LH power (Cincinnati inflates LH HRs ~12 percent above the league average).

Additional first base notes: Jose Abreu (CHW) and Joey Votto (CIN) also rank inside our Top 15 hitters overall but come with elevated price points so they represent better tournament plays. First base is so deep on Monday that I think most tournament first base spots will be filled as parts of stacks rather than individual plays. Mark Teixeira (NYY) doesn’t rank nearly as well in our model (outside the Top 50) based on his historical lack of success as a LHB, but as part of a Yankees stack he’s a great tournament play given the power upside with the short porch. Adam LaRoche (CHW), Prince Fielder (TEX), and Victor Martinez (DET) all rank within our Top 30 overall hitters but are priced more as secondary value plays.

Second Base

Top Play:

Robinson Cano (SEA) – Cano gets a big park shift in his favor (over last and current year’s statistics) and he gets the platoon advantage in one of the most favorable hitting environments on the night. Cano ranks as our 22nd best hitting option on the night due to his .382 wOBA and .166 ISO against RHP as a Mariner.

Value Plays:

Ian Kinsler (DET) – Kinsler ranks about a dozen spots below Cano in our model. He doesn’t get the benefit of an elite hitting environment but is surrounded by elite hitters that bump his value. Kinsler has also been great against LHP in recent years, posting a .365 wOBA and .157 ISO since 2012. Tommy Milone has allowed a.321 wBOA and 1.21 HR/9 to RHBs during that time frame. On sites Kinsler is significantly discounted from Cano, he’s one of my favored plays at the position.

Aaron Hill (ARZ) – Hill can hit LHP. He’s posted a .340 wOBA and .186 ISO against LHP since 2012. The question is whether he’ll get in the lineup and where he’ll hit. The Diamondbacks lineups are pretty inconsistent but they have the skills to give LHP trouble. Tyler Matzek has struggled against RHBs in his career. He’s allowed a .368 wOBA, fueled by a 10.5 percent BB Rate. He’s done a good job limiting home runs (0.82 HR/9) but just an average (43.8 percent) ground ball rate leaves him susceptible. Hill comes with a discounted price point over Kinsler and Cano and ranks within our Top 60 hitters. If you need to find some extra cap relief, he’s a fine option to drop down to.

Additional second base notes: I feel strongly about those three options for cash games, but there are some secondary options that could emerge with good lineup spots. Alex Guerrero (LAD) has done nothing but hit for power in the big leagues and his price remains low around the industry. He’s been buried at the bottom of the lineup but if he garners a good lineup spot, there is some upside in his current price point. Jimmy Paredes (BAL) keeps hitting and is getting great lineup spots for an Orioles offense that projects really well tonight. The price point isn’t obscene yet and while he’s overvalued for his historical performance, there is always a chance he’s improved dramatically (I’m skeptical). He’s fine as a part of Orioles stacks or mini-stacks. Dee Gordon (MIA) gets the platoon advantage against Dillon Gee who struggles keeping LHBs off base (.343 wOBA allowed) which makes Gordon an interesting tournament play.


Top Play:

Troy Tulowitzki (COL) – Tulowitzki ranks just outside our Top 10 hitters overall. It’s always a risk investing in the Rockies on the road because of their wide splits, but Chase Field is one of the lighter steps down in terms of playing environment. Chase Anderson has been vulnerable to RHBs early in his career (.347 wOBA, 1.14 HR/9, 28.8 percent LD Rate allowed) as he’s shown some reverse splits. On sites with soft pricing, Tulowitzki is a fine option because of the gap between him and most other options, but in many cases he’s priced as a Top Five option and we have him ranked outside our Top 10.

Value Plays:

Jean Segura (MIL) – Segura is rarely a hitter we recommend because frankly he’s not very skilled. However, he’s been blessed with the leadoff spot and he’s facing arguably the weakest SP on the slate in Jason Marquis. Marquis has allowed a .332 wOBA and 1.16 HR/9 to RHBs since 2012 and ZiPS projection system calls for an ERA over five the rest of the way. Segura owns just a .301 wOBA against RHP since 2012 but he’s more likely to run against RHPs and Brayan Pena is below average in controlling the running game. He ranks within our Top 35 hitters largely based on the matchup with Marquis.

Jhonny Peralta (STL) – Peralta doesn’t rate quite as well in our model as Segura or Owings, but I think he’s a similarly viable option. Cole Hamels is a really good starter but Peralta gets a good lineup spot and has hit LHP well (.361 wOBA, .194 ISO since 2012).

Chris Owings (ARZ) – Owings has not hit much as a big leaguer and he’s actually been better against RHP (.315 wOBA) than LHP (.271 wOBA) but ZiPS projection system is optimistic (.320 wOBA projected against LHP). We’ve covered some of Tyler Matzek’s struggles against RHBs and occasionally Owings draws a premier lineup spot (second). He cracks our Top 75 hitters overall.

Additional shortstop notes: Rey Navarro (BAL) is a really intriguing punt option on DraftKings. He’s hit a little bit the last few years in the minors (.300/.363/.421 at AAA) and the Orioles hit him seventh last time against a RHP. At a thin position, I don’t mind a punt option on sites with tighter pricing. Asdrubal Cabrera (TB) remains priced near the minimum on many sites and gets a great lineup spot in a favorable stadium for left handed power. Cabrera doesn’t have a ton of power but as a punt play that lineup spot is worthy of consideration.

Third Base

Value Plays:

Aramis Ramirez (MIL) – Ramirez ranks as our top option at the third base position in our model and once again it’s largely because Jason Marquis is terrible. Ramirez has posted a solid .339 wOBA and .156 ISO against RHP since 2012. The knock on Ramirez is lineup positioning. He’s been hitting sixth lately and ideally we’d like to see him inside the Top Five. But on sites where price is similar to a punt option, I think Ramirez makes a lot of sense as a source of salary relief. He ranks inside our Top 30 overall hitters.

Kyle Seager (SEA) – Seager ranks a bit lower in our model (Top 45) but gets a big park shift in his favor and the platoon advantage against Yovani Gallardo. The challenge with Seager is often price point as he’s priced like the top plays at other positions that all rank within our Top 25 hitters and he ranks closer to our Top 45. Gallardo is vulnerable to LHBs (.320 wOBA, 24 percent LD Rate allowed) and the Rangers pen lacks LH relievers to negate any of Seager’s value late in the game.

Additional third base notes: Adrian Beltre (TEX) and Nolan Arenado (COL) get great hitting environments but don’t have the platoon advantage or particularly appealing price points. They’re better tournament options than cash game plays. Chase Headley (NYY) and Alex Rodriguez (NYY) are nice tournament options as part of Yankees stacks or mini-stacks. Kris Bryant (CHC) always has tournament worthy power but the playing conditions in Chicago don’t look favorable for power. Yasmany Tomas (ARZ) is minimum priced on FanDuel and worthy of consideration as a punt play if he lands in a favorable lineup spot. On sites with multiple position eligibility I like Chris Davis (BAL) and Miguel Cabrera (DET) as opposed to the other expensive third base options. Getting as many “first basemen” into your lineups as possible tonight seems like a great approach given their rankings in our model.


Top Plays:

Adam Jones (BAL) – Jones is not the highest ranking outfielder in our model but he’s the outfield option I’m most comfortable spending on. Jones is still in the prime of his career and his early season performance (.403/.450/.708) is highlighted by a substantial growth in his contact rate (81.8 percent compared to a career average of 75.2 percent). Jones is also getting way more balls in the air than ever before (34.4 percent GB Rate compared to 47.7 percent career average) and he’s facing a RHP that has trouble missing bats and keeping the ball on the ground. Noesi has yielded a .356 wOBA and 1.32 HR/9 to RHBs since 2012 and Jones has posted a .350 wOBA and .208 ISO against RHP during this time. He’s the high priced outfield option I’m most likely to stretch for on Monday.

Ryan Braun (MIL) – Braun ranks as the top outfield option in our model and a Top Five hitter overall. Braun’s early season struggles (.230/.277/.279) are certainly a concern when paying a hefty price tag but Braun ranks 14th in exit velocity on batted balls according to data from This gives some hope that the slow start is “luck-related” and not a serious drop off in skill. I think there are a number of other outfield options that are comparable to Braun in this section, but his historical performance places him above the rest in our model.

Value Plays:

Gerardo Parra (MIL) – Parra is the hitter most likely to find his way onto my rosters tonight because of his low price point around the industry. Parra has been an above average hitter against RHP, posting a .327 wOBA and .144 ISO since 2012 and of late he’s hit second or third in the Brewers lineup. Jason Marquis is dreadful against LHBs (.384 wOBA, 1.93 HR/9) and Parra has a near minimum price tag around the industry. He ranks within our Top 30 hitters overall and if he gets a great lineup spot again, he’ll be a foundation of my lineups.

A.J. Pollock/Mark Trumbo (ARZ) – Pollock and Trumbo rank inside our Top 15 hitters overall with Pollock ranking inside the Top 10. They both have hit LHP well in recent years (Trumbo – .367 wOBA, .275 ISO, Pollock – .360 wOBA, .214 ISO) and get to face Tyler Matzek who has really struggled with RHBs. Pollock ranks ahead of Trumbo because he has softer true platoon splits (carries his value deeper into the game) and has speed upside that Trumbo doesn’t hold. In addition I think a matchup against Matzek who is more vulnerable to command than power, is slightly better for Pollock’s profile. They’re both great options.

Carlos Gonzalez (COL) – Gonzalez is a lot like Braun. His early season struggles look terrible (too many ground balls, not enough power) but again he rates well in the exit velocity (eight in MLB) data and historically has been an elite hitter. With the price tag down and a likely bump in the order due to Corey Dickerson‘s injury, I think Gonzalez is worthy of strong consideration on sites the tag is discounted. He ranks inside our Top 10 overall hitters and while I wouldn’t pay Top 10 prices, I think there are opportunities around the industry to get him closer to Top 30-50 prices and those make sense.

Orioles Outfielders (BAL) – Steve Pearce, Alejandro de Aza, and Travis Snider each rank within our Top 35 overall hitters and come with severely discounted price points. Pearce’s value is directly tied to his lineup spot, as is Snider’s, while de Aza is a bit steadier. We’ve noted Noesi’s struggles against all handedness and these three OFs have hit RHP well the last few years: Pearce – .347 wOBA, .180 ISO, de Aza – .328 wOBA, .142 ISO, and Snider has posted a .322 wOBA, .159 ISO since 2014.

Additional outfield notes: Seth Smith (SEA) is another SEA LHB getting a big park shift that doesn’t have to worry about LH relievers mitigating them in later innings. He’s a fine play as well. Khris Davis (MIL) has shown good power against all pitching in his career (.206 ISO vs. RHP) and although he’s a volatile hitter power plays well in DFS. He’s another Brewer that ranks in our Top 30 hitters. Rajai Davis (DET) has seen his price soar after the big game on Saturday and he’s dealing with a groin issue. He hits LHP well but I’d rather not pay up for a speedster with leg issues unless it’s in tournaments as part of a stack. The Yankees LHBs rank well in our model but come with challenging price points. We’ll cover more on them in the tournament section. Andre Ethier (LAD) could operate as a source of salary relief (though likely unnecessary) if he keeps hitting second for the Dodgers. Lineup spots are really important for the LHBs as the Giants have two LH specialists in their pen so you want to maximize plate appearances in the early innings. Jayson Werth (WAS) has historically crushed LHP and his price point isn’t egregious anywhere. He just gets pushed down our preferred list of options because of all the other strong outfielders in play tonight. He’s an exceptional tournament play. J.D. Martinez/Yoenis Cespedes (DET) are better versions of Werth, more viable for cash games, but also falls down the list of preferences a bit due to the depth of outfield options. They both rank inside our Top 20 hitters overall.

Starting Pitcher

Rankings (price not considered):

Tier 1

1a) David Price (DET)

1b) James Shields (SD)

Tier 2

3) Collin McHugh (HOU)

Tier 3

4) Cole Hamels (PHI)

5) John Lackey (STL)

Tier 4

6) Jimmy Nelson (MIL)

Tier 5

7) Tim Lincecum (SF)

8) Ubaldo Jimenez (BAL)

9) Jason Hammel (CHC)

10) Doug Fister (WAS)

Top Plays:

David Price (DET) – Short memories are essential in Daily Fantasy and David Price is tonight’s example. Price was horrendous last time out against the Yankees but draws another favorable matchup tonight against the Twins. The Twins project as a slightly below average offense against LHP with a strikeout rate slightly above the league average. Early on in 2015, they rank 24th in wRC+ against LHP but have held strikeouts down (18.3 percent) below the league average. Price has shown resiliency in his career, bouncing back from outings in which he’s allowed five earned runs or more to post a 2.76 ERA and 119 strikeouts in 119 1/3 innings compared to just 16 walks (data from 2011-2015 represents 16 starts). Price sits atop our starting pitching model rankings, but by a very narrow margin over James Shields. They’re essentially equals in our minds.

James Shields (SD) – Shields has been tremendous in his first four starts with the Padres (27.9 percent K Rate, 14.5 percent swinging strike rate, 3.16 xFIP, 3.24 ERA) and he gets a matchup we frequently like to target against the Astros. The Astros are a dangerous offense because they have a lot of power, but they also provide a nice floor for Daily Fantasy players streaming starters against them because of their high strikeout rate. Our projected lineups for the Astros against RHP expect a K Rate around 24 percent. No other unit in baseball has a K Rate above 22.5 percent in our projected lineups. On the season the Astros are striking out in 23.9 percent of their plate appearances against RHP (tops in the league) and they rank 21st in wRC+. They also experience a substantial park shift playing in PETCO Park and lose the DH in a National League park. The Astros have largely used Evan Gattis or Chris Carter at DH, so the loss of the DH will likely lower the expected K Rate but also substantially lower the risk of runs scored. The only negative with Shields is the win probabilities are lower than Price because he’s facing another strong pitcher in Collin McHugh. Many times win probabilities are overstated because the difference in a -170 and -120 line (like Price and Shields tonight) is just 7-8 percentage points of the team win. Then when you factor in the starting pitchers chances of capturing that win, the differences are on the margins. As a result, we choose to view them as tiebreakers. In this case, Price earns the tiebreaker on overall value, but on many sites the price gap between the two can push the decision towards Shields.

Value Play:

Collin McHugh (HOU) – The Padres are a similar offense to the Astros with a bit more experience and refinement. They strikeout a bunch (21 percent against RHP this season) and rely heavily on power, but they project as below average against RHP overall with an above average strikeout rate. McHugh has been as good as Shields early in the season (24 percent K Rate, 11.3 percent swinging strike rate, 2.63 xFIP, 2.41 ERA). Shields has garnered more strikeouts but McHugh has kept the ball on the ground and generally limited run scoring better. In DFS, the strikeouts are king and the most projectable asset which is why Shields ranks ahead of McHugh in our model. McHugh remains a very strong option and on multiple SP sites, I don’t mind using both McHugh and Shields.

Additional starting pitcher notes: Those three starters stand out considerably from the field in our rankings. If you’re dipping down for other SP options on multiple SP sites, there are a handful of viable options all with different risk-reward profiles. John Lackey (STL) and Doug Fister (WAS) have favorable matchups against below average offenses, but neither pitcher projects well in the strikeouts category. I’d be surprised if either pitcher pitched poorly, but strikeouts dictate so much of the scoring in DFS that it’s hard to get excited about either. Lackey has the higher strikeout potential and facing a matchup that generates more strikeouts (Phillies at 20.6 percent vs. RHP, Braves at 17.4 percent against RHP), so he ranks higher in our model. Ubaldo Jimenez (BAL) and Jimmy Nelson (MIL) represent a different group. They both have great strikeout potential but pitch in difficult environments. Nelson has the softer matchup of the two and thus ranks higher in our model but the Reds project as more of an average offense against RHP than a well below average offense. Tim Lincecum (SF) is somewhere in between those two groups as he gets a good park environment and has historically missed bats but his velocity is way down early in the season (87.1 mph) as is his strikeout rate. If I’m selecting a secondary SP from these groups, I’d most likely lean on Lackey or Nelson as those are the best combinations of strikeout upside and security in matchup from the remaining options.

Macro Thinking, Stacks, and Tournament Notes:

This is a new section we’ve created to try and offer more dedicated macro thinking to our analysis and hopefully add more value to those playing tournaments. The format is a bit of a work in progress and we welcome feedback ( if you have suggestions.

Top Tournament Stacks/Cash Game Mini Stacks:

1) Detroit Tigers

2) Baltimore Orioles

3) Arizona Diamondbacks

4) Seattle Mariners

The Tigers vs. LHP is arguably the best split in all of baseball to attack. They’re loaded with RHBs who crush LHP and they’re facing Tommy Milone who has allowed a .321 wOBA and 1.21 HR/9 to RHBs since 2012 while generating a meager 39.2 percent GB Rate and 17.4 percent K Rate. He’s a below average starter who struggles to keep the ball on the ground or miss bats. In addition most think of Minnesota as a bad park for hitters but it actually grades out above league average for RHBs. It’s a tough park for LHBs, specifically power, but RHBs have a much better chance. The Twins also have the bullpen that has performed the worst in baseball so far, according to xFIP (4.59). This is the premier stack to attack in cash games (mini-stacks) and tournaments (both full and mini-stacks are advisable).

The Orioles also face a below average starter with contact (16.6 percent career K Rate) and ground ball (37.9 percent career GB Rate) issues. They face him in a superior hitting environment and currently rank second in MLB in wRC+ against RHP (128) with a .200 ISO. The risk with the Orioles is a good White Sox bullpen behind Noesi and the potential for losing an inning to accumulate runs as the home team.

The Diamondbacks face a below average LHP in their home environment which inflates RH power considerably. They have the ability to get very RH which can cause a lot of problems for Matzek. The challenge is price point around the industry for their anchor Paul Goldschmidt. I think it makes them more likely used in tournaments and cash games but they’re one of a few offenses with a team total of 4.5.

The Mariners get a huge park shift in their favor moving from Seattle to Texas. Yovani Gallardo isn’t the weakest starter going but has shown some vulnerability to LHBs (.320 wOBA, 24 percent LD Rate since 2012) and the Rangers pen lacks a LH reliever to neutralize the wide splits of players like Seth Smith, Robinson Cano, and Kyle Seager.

Contrarian/Secondary Stacks:

1) New York Yankees

2) Milwaukee Brewers

3) Chicago White Sox

4) Texas Rangers

5) Washington Nationals

6) Los Angeles Dodgers

The Yankees get the benefit of facing a RHP with issues against LHBs in their home stadium which inflates LH power considerably. Nate Karns has allowed a .357 wOBA and 2.11 HR/9 to LHBs in his brief major league career (100 LHBs faced). The Yankees will load up with LHBs and the Rays only have one LHP in the pen to neutralize them late in the game. The challenge with Yankees options is the price point. Most of the Yankees LHBs are priced aggressively, which makes them better options in tournaments than cash games. I think they represent one of the top tournament stacks as a lower owned option because of price point and the perception that the Rays have an elite pen.

The Brewers face arguably the weakest starter on the entire slate in Jason Marquis. ZiPS projection system expects an ERA of 5.15 over the rest of the season with a below average strikeout rate and above average walk rate. The Brewers lineup lacks depth without Lucroy and Gomez so they’re probably better for mini-stacks than a full stack but the replacement players also allow for some more cost effective entry points. I think the Brewers options are more likely to find themselves in cash games than the Yankees because of pricing.

The White Sox and Rangers are in similar spots. Both offenses are in elite offensive environments in games with elevated totals, but pricing forces them as secondary options. The Rangers offense isn’t particularly skilled (29th in wRC+ against RHP) but Taijuan Walker has been explosive in a few outings and the scoring environment is great. Vegas has them as one of the highest total teams, but I’m less excited about deploying them in stacks. The White Sox play in a great park but it’s not much of a park shift for them and Ubaldo’s performances are exceptionally volatile. He makes any opponent a strong tournament stack but his strikeout rate (and so far elite GB Rate) make him more difficult to pick on in cash games. The Orioles pen hasn’t performed well early in the season but it’s a diverse group of specialists and Buck Showalter is a great manager at deploying them. It’s a fine option to attack in tournaments, but like the Rangers I’m less likely to use White Sox in my cash games.

The Dodgers and Nationals are two stacks I expect will be very low owned. They’re playing in neutral pitching environments with low totals but they’re each facing a weak SP. Eric Stults has been a slightly below league average starter for most of his career despite pitching in elite offensive environments. He doesn’t miss bats and he’s relatively homer prone (1.05 career HR/9) despite pitching in elite environments. The Nationals have a handful of very good RHBs (Werth, Zimmerman, Ramos, and Desmond) that perform well with the platoon advantage. The Dodgers face Tim Lincecum who has been struggling with his velocity (87 mph). Lower velocity often leads to harder contact and while that hasn’t played out yet, the Dodgers have been the best team against RHP this season according to wRC+ (138). The Giants bullpen has two lefty specialists which negates some of the late game upside but on sites like DraftKings where pricing is accounting for the scoring environment, they represent a cheap stack. I’d prefer to mini-stack than full stack Dodgers simply because of the lefty specialists in the Dodgers pen that should cost Ethier or Crawford (or both) an at bat late in the game.

MLB Game Weather Forecasts

In the scales below, a 10 strongly favors the batter, a 1 strongly favors the pitcher and a 5 has no impact on the game.

On the scales used below, a 10 strongly favors the batter, a 1 strongly favors the pitcher and a 5 should not impact the game at all.

TOR at BOS 6:10: Scattered showers some which may contain brief, heavy downpours. A 30% chance of a short delay. There should not be a steady, area of rain. Temps in the low to mid 50s falling into the upper 40s. Air density is a 4 falling to a 3. Wind north-northwest at 8-16 mph which blows in from left. The wind is a 3.

KC at CLE 6:10: A 10% chance of a brief shower. Temps in the upper 40s falling into the low to mid 40s. Air density is a 3 becoming a 2. Wind north-northwest at 6-12 mph which blows in from left. The wind is a 4.

WSH at ATL 7:00: Dry. Temps in the mid to upper 60s falling to near 60. Air density is a 5 or 6. Wind northwest 5-10 mph which blows left to right. The wind is a 5.

CHW at BLT 7:05: A 10-20% chance of a brief shower. Should not cause a delay. Temps in the mid 50s falling into the upper 40s. Air density is a 4 falling to a 3. Wind northwest 7-14 mph lessening to 5-10 mph which blows from left to right. The wind is a 5.

TB at NYY 7:05: A 20% chance of a brief shower or two. Temps in the mid 50s falling to near 50. Air density is a 4 becoming a 3. Wind northwest 6-12 mph which blows from left to right. The wind is a 5.

MIL at CIN 7:10: Dry. Temps in the mid 50s falling into the upper 40s. Air density is a 4 becoming a 3. Wind north-northwest 7-14 mph lessening to 5-10 mph which blows out to center. The wind is a 6 becoming a 5.

NYM at MIA 7:10: Retractable roof. Warm with some scattered showers/thunderstorms around. So I will assume the roof will be closed. If it is open, temps in the mid to upper 80s falling to the lower 80s. Air density is a 7 or 8. Wind east-southeast 5-10 mph which blows in from left-center. The wind is a 4.

SEA at TEX 8:05: A 20-30% chance of a shower or thunderstorm around. This is not going to be a long-lived, soaking rain. So, I think there is a risk of a delay (~20%) but they should play this game. Temps in the mid 60s falling to near 60. Air density is a 5. Wind north-northeast 10-20 mph which blows from left to right or in from left at times. The wind is a 4. I would not be afraid of this game.

PIT at CHC 8:05: Dry. Temps near 50 falling in the low to mid 40s. Air density is a 3 becoming a 2. Wind north 7-14 mph becoming 5-10 mph which blows in from left-center. The wind is a 4.

DET at MIN 8:10: Dry. Temps in the mid 60s falling into the upper 50s. Air density is a 6 becoming a 5. Wind north 5-10 mph becoming light and variable. The wind is a 5.

PHL at STL 8:15: Dry. Temps in the low 60s falling into the mid 50s. Air density is a 5. Wind north-northeast 7-14 mph lessening to 5-10 mph which blows in from left. The wind is a 4.

COL at AZ 9:40: Retractable roof. Dry and warm. The roof may be open. Temps in the low to mid 80s falling into the mid 70s. Air density is a 7 or 8. Wind west-southwest at 6-12 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 6.

SF at LAD 10:10: Dry. Temps in the low to mid 70s falling into the mid and upper 60s. Air density is a 7 becoming a 6. Wind west-southwest at 8-16 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 6 or 7.

HOU at SD 10:10: Dry. Temps in the mid 70s falling to near 70. Air density is a 7. Wind west-northwest at 7-14 mph which blows from left to right or in from left at times. The wind is a 4.

MLB Daily Analysis