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4/28 MLB DFS: A Weeks worth of value on Tuesday

4/28 MLB DFS: A Weeks worth of value on Tuesday
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MLB DFS Daily Fantasy Rundown – April 28th, 2015

Welcome to Tuesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.

PLEASE NOTE: The content does not include the two games starting at 6:10 PM EST (KC-CLE, TOR-BOS). These games are being excluded on most sites with the exception of user created contests, so we’ve decided to remove them from the content. We will briefly cover them in our lineup alerts. In addition CHW-BAL has been POSTPONED due to the riots in Baltimore. Players from this game have been removed from our content as well.

Weather: There aren’t any major weather concerns on Tuesday. Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.

If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.


Top Play:

Brian McCann (NYY) – We’re in a similar spot on Tuesday as we were on Monday. McCann ranks as the top healthy catcher option in our model, but ranks as just our 75th best hitter option overall. The matchup with Jake Odorizzi isn’t nearly as strong as the matchup with Nate Karns was on Monday. Odorizzi has allowed just a .298 wOBA and 0.94 HR/9 to LHBs while striking out 26 percent of the LHBs he’s faced since 2012. In fact, since the beginning of last season Odorizzi has been more dominant against LHBs than RHBs. The reason McCann rates well in our model is a strong .185 ISO against RHP since 2012 and the boost Yankee Stadium offers to LH power. In addition, the Rays are short LHPs in the bullpen using Teaford last night and trading for Xavier Cedeno yesterday. Most of McCann’s plate appearances should come against RHP. The landscape at catcher is still largely McCann or punt on Tuesday, but the punt options are a bit more compelling than Monday’s slate.

Value Play:

Alex Avila (DET) – Avila is in a stacked Tigers lineup so the batting order doesn’t hurt him as much as it does other catchers (less impact on expected plate appearances and quality of hitters in front of him keeps the value of each plate appearances closer to that of a sixth place hitter). Avila has posted a .338 wOBA and .165 ISO against RHP since 2012 and he faces Mike Pelfrey who has allowed a .321 wOBA to LHBs since 2012. The park environment isn’t great for LH power, but Avila actually grades out as a Top 65 hitter before lineup adjustments will ultimately push him down.  I believe he’s your best punt catcher option.

Additional catcher notes: On sites that Victor Martinez (DET) is catcher eligible, he’s your top option (ranks 13th in our hitter model) and by a wide margin. I would play Martinez before McCann where eligible. If you’re not investing in either of those options, I think there are some attractive “punt” options at the position, just make sure you’re paying punt (bare minimum) prices. Avila is our preferred target which is why we’ve singled him out above, but Mike Zunino (SEA) and Robinson Chirinos (TEX) are fine alternatives with the platoon advantage in one of the best scoring environments of the day. Stephen Vogt (OAK) is another strong tournament option. He’s priced more aggressively than McCann, but has a similar opportunity for success against Jered Weaver‘s declining velocity. We like him most in tournaments as salary relief at catcher takes a slight priority in cash games with the need to spend on starting pitching.

First Base

Top Plays:

Paul Goldschmidt (ARZ) – Goldschmidt ranks as the top overall first basemen in our model, slightly besting Miguel Cabrera. Kyle Kendrick is one of the weaker starters on the slate and he’s allowed a .335 wOBA and 1.18 HR/9 to RHBs since 2012. Goldschmidt is best known for his dominance against LHP but he’s posted a very strong .373 wOBA and .212 ISO against RHP since 2012. He’s not quite Miguel Cabrera, but the better park environment and team total push him slightly ahead of Cabrera in our model.

Miguel Cabrera (DET) – Cabrera ranks just behind Goldschmidt but comes with a slightly discounted price point on most sites. I think they’re comparable options. Pelfrey has actually struggled more with RHBs than LHBs in the last few years (.384 wOBA allowed) but some of that is inflated by a .384 BABIP (.279 vs. LHBs). Cabrera hits all kinds, posting a .419 wOBA and .260 ISO against RHP since 2012, and the Tigers offense is one of the better ones to attack tonight.

Joey Votto (CIN) – Votto ranks right behind Cabrera and Goldschmidt in our model (all within the Top Five) but is priced a bit below those options on most sites. He gets a great park environment and a matchup with Kyle Lohse who has allowed a 24 percent LD Rate and 1.15 HR/9 to LHBs since 2012. Votto is an elite hitter against RHP (.419 wOBA, .197 ISO) and the Reds offense as a whole is more competitive against RHP as Jay Bruce and Billy Hamilton both have wider splits. If you’re paying up at first base, Votto’s slight price reduction compared to the other two first basemen makes him a solid buy.

Additional first base notes: Pricing is a challenge at first base around the industry, so instead of trying to force some “value plays”, I felt it was easier to tackle potential options that may come at more reasonable price points on the site you’re playing on and reference them to our model rankings. Matt Adams (STL) is cheap on FanDuel and rates within our Top 45 hitters overall in a favorable matchup with Severino Gonzalez who is making his major league debut. Yonder Alonso (SD) and Ike Davis (OAK) are cheap almost everywhere and face attractive matchups in tough ballpark environments. Alonso is the safer bet for some production as Roberto Hernandez has allowed a .359 wOBA and 1.43 HR/9 to LHBs since 2012. The challenge for Alonso is he hits for almost no power, so the production is a grind to value. He’s been great early this year (.366 wOBA against RHP but again just a .127 ISO) and since 2012 he’s posted just a .323 wOBA and .125 ISO against RHP. As a result, I’d rather take my chances with Ike Davis (.349 wOBA, .195 ISO since 2012) who has a tougher matchup on paper with Jered Weaver, but one we think is exploitable. Weaver has seen his velocity drop dramatically (83.3 mph) early in the season and it’s resulting in a lot of contact (81.5 percent, career average of 78.7 percent) and specifically harder contact (24.7 percent LD Rate vs. career 19.2 percent, 13.3 percent HR/FB Rate vs. career eight percent). Davis’ big issue is contact, so with Weaver struggling to miss bats we think there is a higher probability of Davis’ strengths hitting in this matchup. If saving funds at the position, Davis is our preferred target.

Second Base

Top Play:

Robinson Cano (SEA) – Cano is a far worse hitter against LHP (.316 wOBA, .113 ISO since 2012) but he still ranks as our top second base option due to the positive park shift and the likelihood of earning half of his plate appearances against a RH and poor Rangers bullpen. Ross Detwiler has averaged just over four innings per start and frankly, he’s been terrible. His velocity is down and he’s not really generating ground balls at all. Cano ranks inside our Top 40 so with elevated price points, he’s more of a tournament play than a cash game option. I will have exposure to him in tournaments this evening.

Value Play:

Rickie Weeks (SEA) – Weeks looks like “the play” at a thin second base position. He’s generally hit first or second against LHP this year and in those starts he’s averaged 4.4 plate appearances per game which eases some of the concerns over the Rangers heavily right handed bullpen causing a platoon switch late. Weeks has been successful against LHP, posting a .344 wOBA and .169 ISO against LHP since 2012. Ross Detwiler is one of the weaker starters going and Weeks presence at the top of the lineup should allow him to see at least three plate appearances against Detwiler before getting into the right handed bullpen. Even with Detwilers’ early struggles he’s averaged 23 batters faced per game, which would give the Mariners 1-5, three plate appearances against him. Righties have just crushed Detwiler in recent years. He’s allowed a .353 wOBA and 1.07 HR/9 to RHBs and now he’s pitching in the American League and in a very good hitter’s park. The Mariners offense projects very well and Weeks minimal price point gives you great exposure to thin a position at a small cost.

Additional second base notes: Dee Gordon (MIA) and Ian Kinsler (DET) are viable options at second base. Kinsler is part of a great overall offense and gets a premier lineup spot, while Gordon’s speed upside plays better against a young SP-C duo for the Mets. Rafael Montero has also struggled with command against LHBs (13 percent BB Rate in 108 LHBs faced) at the major league level.  Neither ranks particularly high in our model (Top 90) which makes their price points more challenging, but second base is really thin and they provide a more stable shot at production. Yangervis Solarte (SD) carries second base eligibility on DraftKings and offers some salary relief. He draws a favorable matchup against Roberto Hernandez who has struggled with LHBs and a solid lineup spot (typically second). If Aaron Hill (ARZ) gets into the Diamondbacks lineup, he’s got a fair price point around the industry. I prefer Weeks over him, but he’s a viable fallback if Weeks gets a bad lineup spot or surprisingly doesn’t start.


Top Play:

Troy Tulowitzki (COL) – Tulowitzki ranks inside our Top 10 hitters overall. He gets a modest downgrade in park environment and Archie Bradley profiles far worse than his early results. Bradley’s walked 15.5 percent of batters faced and he’s generating a pitiful 5.9 percent swinging strike rate. However, he’s limiting hard contact (6.5 percent LD Rate) and keeping the ball on the ground (65.2 percent). It’s a hard combination to target. Bradley isn’t really good, but he also doesn’t really allow much hard contact. His command issues can put him in some difficult situations and the high expected run total is the result of his overall profile. On sites with softer pricing, I think Tulowitzki is a viable spend but on most sites I’d rather allocate expensive resources to attack a pitcher I have a stronger negative opinion on than Bradley.

Value Plays:

Jhonny Peralta (STL) – Peralta gets to face Severino Gonzalez who is making his major league debut this evening. Gonzalez hasn’t been particularly successful working his way up the Phillies system. He posted a 4.59 ERA and 4.60 FIP at AA last season in 27 starts and early on this season he’s struggled to miss bats in three AAA starts (4.58 K/9). Peralta typically gets an elite lineup spot in a very good Cardinals offense. He’s posted a solid .326 wOBA and .152 ISO against RHP since 2012 and rates as a Top 80 hitter in our model.

Asdrubal Cabrera (TB) – Cabrera actually rates a bit better than Peralta in our model largely due to the stronger hitting environment. Cabrera has posted a .318 wOBA and .154 ISO against RHP since 2012 and he’ll face Chase Whitley who was very vulnerable to LHBs in his brief major league experience last season, allowing a .380 wOBA and 1.37 HR/9 to the 176 LHBs he faced. I’m a bit more optimistic on Whitley’s outlook than our model is, but the price discount between Cabrera and Peralta on most sites makes Cabrera a viable play.

Additional shortstop notes: Starlin Castro (CHC) gets a premier lineup spot against LHP (typically fifth) and is right behind a bunch of great on base threats. This typically provides a few premium opportunities. Castro isn’t a great hitter against LHP (.318 wOBA, .117 ISO since 2012) and he’s ground ball oriented which isn’t ideal against a ground ball pitcher, but the opportunities make him a viable option. Marcus Semien (OAK) is an interesting option if he continues to hit near the top of the order. Semien hasn’t hit at all against RHP in his career (.296 wOBA) but Weaver’s reduced velocity makes him interesting as part of a stack or mini-stack in tournaments. Billy Hamilton (CIN) is a nice option on DraftKings where he has shortstop eligibility.

Third Base

Top Plays:

Kris Bryant (CHC) – Bryant projects as an elite power hitter against LHP. ZiPS projection system is calling for a .377 wOBA and .251 ISO. Jeff Locke has held RHBs in check (.314 wOBA, 0.92 HR/9 since 2012) for the most part, but Bryant has been remarkably consistent as a Fantasy asset without even hitting a home run yet. He ranks within our Top 10 hitters overall and is one of the top options at third base.

Adrian Beltre (TEX) – Beltre has a better hitting environment than Bryant and a better matchup and he projects similarly to Bryant. ZiPS projection system is calling for a .384 wOBA and .178 ISO against LHP this season. Since 2012, Beltre has posted a .374 wOBA and .187 ISO against LHPs. J.A. Happ has surrendered a .330 wOBA and 1.11 HR/9 to RHBs during the same time frame. With a strong park environment and solid team total, Beltre cracks our Top 20 hitters overall. The big power gap between the two is creating the gap in our model rankings and I think some of that is suppressed by current weather conditions in Chicago (cold) and as a result I view them as closer to near equivalents.

Value Play:

Josh Harrison (PIT) – Harrison is a solid hitter against LHP (.339 wOBA, .173 ISO) and he faces a below average LHP on Tuesday. Travis Wood has surrendered a .330 wOBA and 1.17 HR/9 to RHBs since 2012 and that is despite just a .278 BABIP allowed. Harrison leads off for a very good Pirates offense against LHP and ranks within our Top 30 hitters.

Additional third base notes: Todd Frazier (CIN) makes for a compelling tournament play as part of a Reds mini-stack. It’s a great hitting environment and Frazier has posted neutral splits throughout much of his career. He’s also posted exceptional peripherals to start the season (1.10 BB/K Ratio, .279 ISO, and just a 37.3 percent GB Rate). Matt Carpenter (STL) is another elite value play, hitting leadoff against a RHP making his major league debut. Carpenter is very expensive and his power upside is limited so he has to grind out value in each plate appearance, but this is a good matchup for this to happen.  Kyle Seager (SEA), like Robinson Cano, is a viable tournament option as part of a Seattle stack or mini-stack. Like Cano, he should see good opportunities early against Detwiler and then an all right handed bullpen late provides great individual matchups.


Top Plays:

Nelson Cruz (SEA) – Cruz has destroyed LHP since 2012 posting a .408 wOBA and .255 ISO. He’s produced most of those numbers in great offensive environments (Texas, Baltimore) and he’ll get back to one of them on Tuesday night. We’ve covered Ross Detwiler’s struggles in depth and Cruz is uniquely qualified to take advantage of them. He’s our top overall outfield option and a Top Five hitter in our model.

Andrew McCutchen (PIT) – If I’m not spending all the way up for Cruz, McCutchen is the next best option to spend on. Like Cruz, McCutchen has tormented lefties the last few seasons. He’s compiled a .445 wOBA and .259 ISO against LHP since 2012. Travis Wood is fly ball oriented pitcher and McCutchen is getting a big park shift in his favor, leaving spacious PNC Park for the “Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field”. McCutchen is our second ranked outfielder and another Top Five hitter in our model.

Value Plays:

Arizona Outfielders (ARZ) – Ender Inciarte, A.J. Pollock, David Peralta and Mark Trumbo all crack the Top 25 hitters in our model. They get a favorable matchup with Kyle Kendrick who has allowed a .335 wOBA and 1.18 HR/9 to RHBs as well as a .330 wOBA and 1.10 HR/9 to LHBs since 2012. The Diamondbacks have one of the highest team totals of the night and Kendrick’s relatively neutral splits keep all the options in play. Only three will find their way into the Diamondbacks lineup, but any of those three can find their way into yours.

Jay Bruce (CIN) – Bruce has some pretty wide splits and he’s very power dependent, which makes him a great play in DFS whenever he’s facing a below average RHP in Cincinnati. He’s posted a .340 wOBA and .218 ISO against RHP since 2012 and will face Kyle Lohse who has generated just a 36 percent GB Rate against LHBs in that span. Combine Bruce’s power potential, Cincinnati’s small park, and Lohse’s inability to keep the ball on the ground and we have a great opportunity for power output. Bruce ranks inside our Top 25 overall hitters.

Austin Jackson/Justin Ruggiano (SEA) – Ruggiano has crushed LHP since 2012 (.392 wOBA, .273 ISO) while Jackson has been merely good (.340 wOBA, .145 ISO) during the same span. Jackson is less vulnerable to pinch hit opportunities late in the game which neutralizes the gap in skill set between the two hitters. Lineup spots will ultimately dictate our preference here, but both represent fine plays against Ross Detwiler’s struggles with RHBs.

Additional outfield notes: Lineups will help dictate some additional value plays, but guys like David DeJesus (TB) and Anthony Gose (DET) are viable value plays in the leadoff spot. Gose is atop an elite offense which overcomes his limited offensive skill set and DeJesus gets a power profile boost in Yankee Stadium. We’ll cover some tournament options in the section below, but there are many outfield options with higher price points that are better suited for tournament exposure as parts of stacks or mini-stacks. Some of those names that rate well in our model include: J.D. Martinez/Yoenis Cespedes (DET), Brett Gardner/Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY), Charlie Blackmon/Carlos Gonzalez (COL), and Jason Heyward/Matt Holliday (STL).

Starting Pitcher

Rankings (price not considered):

Tier 1

1) Clayton Kershaw (LAD)

Tier 2

2) Johnny Cueto (CIN)

3) Tyson Ross (SD)

Tier 3

4) Michael Wacha (STL)

5) Madison Bumgarner (SF)

Tier 4

6) Anibal Sanchez (DET)

7) Sonny Gray (OAK)

Tier 5

8) Jake Odorizzi (TB)

9) Rafael Montero (NYM)

10) Jeff Locke (PIT)

11) Julio Teheran (ATL)

12) Tanner Roark (WAS)

Top Play:

Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – There isn’t much to this recommendation. Kershaw is the best starter in baseball. He’s pitching in a favorable environment and he has a plus matchup. The Giants currently rank 16th in wRC+ against LHP while striking out in 21.3 percent of their plate appearances. Their offense isn’t built to strike out a ton, but the projected lineups against LHP rank as some of the weakest in all of Major League Baseball. Kershaw is a heavy favorite (-180) despite Madison Bumgarner on the other side and the Giants have a team total of just 2.5 runs. Kershaw’s very expensive but he’s clearly the top option at starting pitcher.

Next in line:

Johnny Cueto (CIN) – The Brewers are a mess offensively. They’re without Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez due to injury and Ryan Braun has been sitting the last few days while he tries to work out some swing mechanics. They’re simply devoid of offensive talent right now. It’s evident, as the Brewers rank 26th in wRC+ against RHP while striking out in 23.1 percent of their plate appearances. Cueto is pitching in a tough home environment but he’s accustomed to that. Cueto is among the largest favorites on the day (-210) and despite the tough environment, the game has a total of just seven. This suggests an implied run total for the Brewers under three runs.

Value Plays:

Tyson Ross (SD) – We often reference how strikeouts are king in Daily Fantasy and the Astros provide as strong of a strikeout profile as any opponent. They’ve struck out in over 24 percent of their plate appearances against RHP and rank in the bottom third of the league in wRC+. Ross’s peripherals are all over the place early in the season but the stuff is still there (13.1 percent swinging strike rate, 26.7 percent K Rate). He’s falling behind more consistently and hitters aren’t chasing as many pitches outside the strike zone. Given the swinging strike rate is so strong, I’m chalking this up to some small sample sizes influenced by a tough early season schedule. Vegas seems to agree, listing Ross as a -170 favorite in a game with just a total of seven.

Michael Wacha (STL) – The Phillies rank 30th in wRC+ against RHP early in the season and this is about where projections systems expect their offense to reside for the season. Wacha’s strikeout rate is down early in the season but all of the peripherals are in line. He’s generating swinging strikes and his velocity remains strong. In addition, his batted ball data is tremendous as he’s generating a 55 percent ground ball rate. Wacha is the heaviest favorite on the board (-215) in a game with a total of seven. Wacha’s strikeout upside prevents him from a top three spot in our rankings, but he’s a very strong value play with his current price point.

Anibal Sanchez (DET) – The Twins rank 28th in wRC+ against RHP and have struck out in 23.3 percent of their plate appearances against RHP. Sanchez is striking out over 25 percent of the batters faced early in the season and it’s supported by growth in his swinging strike rate. Sanchez is a volatile commodity because of below average command (8.3 percent BB Rate) and early in the year he’s been very fly ball oriented (49.2 percent, career 35.9 percent) which makes him vulnerable to home runs. Walks and fly balls can make for a disastrous combination which is why Sanchez is probably best served in tournaments; but on sites with tighter pricing and multiple starting pitchers required, there may be some use in cash games.

Additional starting pitcher notes: In general, I think the first four tiers are where you want to stay in cash games with an emphasis higher up the ladder for sites that require just one starting pitcher. Within Tier Five there are some tournament options that have interesting strikeout potential but difficult matchups. There are also a few unlisted starters that are viable tournament options because they’re priced so cheaply on multiple starting pitcher sites. On DraftKings specifically, David Phelps (MIA) and Chase Whitley (NYY) are priced like average hitters.  In tournaments, the volatility in their performance profiles can be absorbed at those price points.

Macro Thinking, Stacks, and Tournament Notes:

This is a new section we’ve created to try and offer more dedicated macro thinking to our analysis and hopefully add more value to those playing tournaments. The format is a bit of a work in progress and we welcome feedback ( if you have suggestions.

Top Tournament Stacks/Cash Game Mini Stacks:

1) Seattle Mariners

2) Arizona Diamondbacks

3) Detroit Tigers

The Mariners have a unique combination of elite matchup and soft price points to attack in cash games with mini-stacks. I think there is also tournament value in using some of the premier left handed bats in hoping the game gets into the bullpen early which contains no LH relievers.

Arizona and Detroit are secondary options to pluck pieces from in cash games and consider for mini-stacks. Both teams have strong team totals and a matchup with a below average starter. The price points on the Tigers bats pushes them below the Diamondbacks for priority.

Contrarian/Secondary Stacks:

1) St. Louis Cardinals

2) Oakland Athletics

3) Cincinnati Reds

4) Pittsburgh Pirates

5) New York Yankees

6) Chicago Cubs

7) Colorado Rockies

8) Tampa Bay Rays

The Cardinals and Reds are the closest to cash game consideration as they each have individual price points that you can attack and perhaps build some mini-stacks, but it’s usually two as opposed to three pieces. In tournaments, I think they’re both good options for more wide spread mini-stacking. They also get a boost for full stack consideration due to the weakness of the opposing bullpens.

Oakland is my favorite contrarian stack. Jered Weaver‘s velocity issues are a huge concern for a fly ball oriented starter and the A’s offense isn’t thought of as a juggernaut but ranks third in wRC+ against RHP early in the season. The Pirates and Cubs are also strong contrarian stacks in a game with a low total. The Cubs offense is loaded with power and Clint Hurdle has shown a willingness to use the weakest parts of his pen while trailing so there is the potential for an amplifying effect, which is what you want in tournaments. The Pirates just crush LHP and Travis Wood is vulnerable to fly balls and power. If the weather were better, the Pirates would rank as one of our favorite stacks.

The Rockies are an expensive stack and Archie Bradley doesn’t yield much hard contact so the hope is that his command fails and the Rockies can get into the bullpen earlier. The likelihood of power production rests in the bullpen which is why they fall down our rankings a bit.

The Yankees and Rays are in a great park for LH power and facing RH pitchers. The Rays have the easier matchup but they don’t have as many LH hitters to take shots at the short porch which is why they fall down our rankings. Jake Odorizzi is a good starter and potentially dominant against LHBs but the Yankees stack them up and the Rays are without many LHs in the pen to neutralize them. The elevated cost of the Yankees stack will also keep them low owned.

MLB Game Weather Forecasts

In the scales below, a 10 strongly favors the batter, a 1 strongly favors the pitcher and a 5 has no impact on the game. On the scales used below, a 10 strongly favors the batter, a 1 strongly favors the pitcher and a 5 should not impact the game at all.

TOR at BOS 6:10: Dry. Temps in the mid to upper 50s falling into the mid 50s. Air density is a 5. Wind northwest 10-20 mph which blows from left to right. The wind is a 5.

KC at CLE 6:10: Dry. Temps in the low to mid 50s falling to near 50. Air density is a 5 becoming a 4. Wind northwest at 5-10 mph becoming nearly calm. The wind to begin blows in from left. The wind is a 4 becoming a 5.

CHW at BLT 7:05: Dry. Temps in the low to mid 60s falling into the mid 50s. Air density is a 5. Wind northwest 6-12 mph to start becoming nearly calm. The wind to start blows from left to right. The wind is a 5.

TB at NYY 7:05: Dry. Temps near 60 falling into the mid 50s. Air density is a 5. Wind northwest 5-10 mph which blows from left to right. The wind is a 5.

WSH at ATL 7:10: Dry to start the game. Rain may move in after 9-10 PM. So, they will start this game but late in the game and especially if it goes long, there is a 30% chance of a stoppage of play. Temps near 70 to start falling into the low 60s. Air density is a 6 becoming a 5. Wind east at 5-10 mph which blows in from right. The wind is a 4.

MIL at CIN 7:10: Dry. Temps near 60 falling to near 50. Air density is a 5 becoming a 4. Wind north 5-10 mph becoming nearly calm. The wind to begin blows out to right. The wind is a 6 becoming a 5.

NYM at MIA 7:10: Retractable roof. Numerous showers and thunderstorms. I will assume the roof will be closed.

SEA at TEX 8:05: A 20-30% chance of a leftover shower or two. Will not be a soaking rain, they will play this game with <20$ chance of a delay. Temps in the upper 50s falling into the low to mid 50s. Air density is a 5. Wind north at 8-16 mph becoming northwest 5-10 mph. This wind blows out to right to start the game then out to center. The wind is a 6.

PIT at CHC 8:05: Dry. Temps in the low 50s falling into the mid 40s. Air density is a 4 becoming a 3. Wind northeast 6-12 mph which blows in from center. The wind is a 4.

DET at MIN 8:10: A 30% chance of a few showers near the start of the game. This is not a steady, soaking rain, just a light shower or two. <20% chance of a delay to start the game. Temps in the mid 60s to start falling into the low 50s. Air density is a 6 becoming a 5. Wind north-northwest 7-14 mph which blows from left to right. The wind is a 5.

PHL at STL 8:15: Dry. Temps in the low to mid 60s falling into the mid to upper 50s. Air density is a 6 becoming a 5. Wind northeast 6-12 mph becoming nearly calm. The wind to start blows in from center. The wind is a 4 becoming a 5.

COL at AZ 9:40: Retractable roof. Dry and very warm. Temps near 90 to start the game so the roof will likely be closed? If not, air density is a 8 with a light and variable wind. The wind is a 5.

LAA at OAK 10:05: Dry. Temps in the mid 60s to start falling into the upper 50s. Air density is a 6. Wind west 9-18 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 7.

SF at LAD 10:10: Dry. Temps in the  mid 70s to start falling into the upper 60s. Air density is a 7 to start becoming a 6. Wind west at 7-14 mph which blows out towards right. The wind is a 6.

HOU at SD 10:10: Dry. Temps in the mid 70s to start falling to near 70. Air density is a 7. Wind northwest at 7-14 mph becoming nearly calm. The wind blows in from left to begin. The wind is a 4 becoming a 5.

MLB Daily Analysis