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4/6 MLB DFS: Enjoy a good Brew on Opening Day

4/6 MLB DFS: Enjoy a good Brew on Opening Day
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MLB DFS Daily Fantasy Rundown – April 6th, 2015

Welcome to the Opening Day edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.

Weather: No concerns in regards to precipitation, game forecasts by Meteorologist Mark Paquette beneath the Analysis.

If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.


Top Plays:

Buster Posey (SF) – Posey is our highest ranked catcher in our hitter model. He gets a significant park shift in his favor and is facing a contact oriented fly ball pitcher in Josh Collmenter. Posey owns a .351 wOBA against RHP since 2012 with a healthy .153 ISO. With an emphasis on front line pitching on opening day, Posey’s price point is a bit restrictive for cash games, but we think Posey is a really nice tournament option especially when paired with other Giants offensive players.

Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) – Lucroy ranks a bit below Posey and comes at a more favorable price point. He’ll represent a popular option as the Brewers take on one of the weaker opposing starters in Kyle Kendrick. Kendrick has allowed a .334 wOBA and 1.11 HR/9 to RHBs since 2012. He’s shown very neutral splits and he’s one of the weaker starters going on Opening Day, so it makes sense to attack with the Brewers collection of above average RHBs. Over the last few years, Lucroy has been the third best Brewers bat against RHP, posting a .351 wOBA and .164 ISO. Posey’s boost on park advantage is the only thing keeping him ahead of Lucroy.

Value Plays:

Brian McCann (NYY) – We were hoping for slightly warmer conditions in New York but high fifties and low sixties isn’t prohibitive. Yankees Stadium is a great environment for LHBs with the short porch in right field and Drew Hutchison has struggled with lefties in his career. He’s allowed a .347 wOBA and 1.44 HR/9 to LHBs as a big leaguer. The Yankees lineup projects to have seven or eight regular left-handed bats which makes it a very difficult matchup for Hutchison and one of the better lineups to target for power. McCann’s performance against RHP has dropped off in recent years due to the effects of the shift, but the skills are very strong. He’s posted a 0.69 EYE, .183 ISO, 21.2 percent LD Rate, and 44.8 percent FB Rate. A .227 BABIP has held down the performance (.317 wOBA), but we project that to regress over time. McCann actually ranks ahead of Lucroy in our model and comes at a substantially cheaper entry point. He’s our top value play at the catcher position.

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