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4/7 MLB DFS: Chase that money Tuesday

4/7 MLB DFS: Chase that money Tuesday
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – April 7th, 2015

Welcome to Tuesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.

Weather:

STL at CHC – PPD (this news broke late so you will still see player names in the Analysis)

TEX at OAK – Another game with precipitation issues that we’ll be monitoring closely.

Game forecasts by Meteorologist Mark Paquette beneath the Analysis. If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.

Catcher

Top Play:

Buster Posey (ARI) – Posey is the top ranked catcher in our model and, because of the viable salary relief options at other positions, can easily be squeezed into cash game lineups. Posey has accumulated a .351 wOBA and a cool .153 ISO against RHP since 2012. His matchup against Rubby De La Rosa is exceptional. In a limited Major League sample (56 innings), De La Rosa has a below average K percentage (17.6 percent) and allows plenty of hard contact (1.60 HR/9). A shift from Fenway Park to Chase Field won’t do him any favors. According to ESPN park factors from last season, Fenway Park was ranked 27th in home runs while Chase Field was ranked seventh. I view Posey as a great play in all formats tonight, especially given the gap between him and the rest of his peers.

Next in line:

Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) – Lucroy ranks slightly below Posey in our model but I think the gap is a bit wider. The Brewers take on Jordan Lyles, who limits hard contact to RHB (18.7 line drive percentage) and while he allows a good amount of contact (18.2 strike out percentage), he keeps the ball in the ground for the most part (53.9 groundball percentage). Hitting second in the lineup increases his opportunities and Lucroy has posted a .351 wOBA and .164 ISO over the last few years but his matchup isn’t as good as Posey’s matchup. If you want a cheaper option than Posey, Lucroy should be considered but I would rather have Posey in my cash game lineups due to his favorable matchup.

Additional catcher notes: Rene Rivera (TB) and Yasmani Grandal (SD) are two cost-effective options to keep on your radar tonight. Grandal should hit cleanup against RHP and if that’s the case tonight, he makes for an excellent value play. Grandal has posted a .345 wOBA and .172 ISO against RHP since 2012. If Rivera is hitting in a premier lineup spot, he also becomes a great value. Rivera has accrued a .360 wOBA and .222 ISO in a limited sample (128 plate appearances) and his matchup against Wei-Yin Chen (41.6 fly ball percentage, 1.27 HR per nine and 17.5 K percentage), a pitcher who allows plenty of aerial contact (increases opportunities for home runs), fits Rivera’s hitting profile. Mike Zunino (SEA) is an excellent tournament option due to his low price and power potential versus LHBs but a low spot in the lineup keeps him out of cash game consideration.

First Base

Top Play:

Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) – Goldschmidt is the top play at first base and ranks within our top five hitters this evening (Mike Trout and Giancarlo Stanton are the only hitters ahead in our model). While Goldschmidt destroy LHP, he’s still more than effective against same handed pitching as evidenced by his three year .373 wOBA and.215 ISO against it. His matchup against Ryan Vogelsong is very appealing in a plethora of ways. Vogelsong has posted a 4.45 ERA against RHP in the last few seasons, allowing plenty of aerial opportunities (36 fly ball percentage) and striking out RHB at a below average rate (16.7 K percentage). Those aerial opportunities are likely dragged down at his home park, AT&T Park (best pitcher’s park in MLB). However, this game will be taking place at hitter friendly Chase Field, a park that ranked seventh in homeruns and second in runs scored (according to ESPN park factors). While we emphasize top plays at catcher and outfield a bit more (solid values at first base), Goldschmidt remains an option in all formats (particularly on DraftKings where it’s easy to spend a lot on hitting tonight).

Value Plays:

Adam Lind (MIL) – Lind remains the top overall value play tonight and a top 10 hitter, making his price tag on FanDuel look silly ($2,800). Lind has an solid profile from a power perspective (.202 ISO) and great overall hitting (.386 wOBA) against RHP since 2012 and his matchup against Jordan Lyles is beyond favorable. I pointed out earlier that Lyles can hold the fort against RHB but the same can’t be said when he faces LHB. Lyles has allowed a .358 wOBA, 22 line drive percentage, 1.18 home runs per nine and his K rate (13 percent) mirrors his walk rate (10.6 percent). It’s also fair to point out that Miller Park was ranked ninth last season in home runs. All signs point towards success for Lind in this matchup and hence why he’s such an exceptional play at his current price point on FanDuel, which has simply not caught up to any of these developments mentioned above.

Brandon Belt (SF) – Earlier in the Rundown I mentioned Rubby De La Rosa as a great matchup to target for the Giants. Well, I didn’t mention his skills (or lack thereof) against LHB and it’s a good time to do so. De La Rosa has struggled mightily against LHB at the Major League level (minor league profile suggests the same), allowing a 23 line drive percentage, 36 fly ball percentage and posting a pedestrian 14.7 K percentage. His 5.8 HR/FB rate is due for massive regression now that he’s pitching at an elite hitter’s park. In summary, De La Rosa allows a ton of aerial opportunities and overall hard contact, which suits Belt perfectly (.357 wOBA and .177 ISO since 2012). Belt is a top 10 hitter this evening and his price tag on FanDuel is too cheap, making him an even better value than Goldschmidt on that particular site.

Additional first base notes: Albert Pujols (LAA) has an exceptional power profile against LHP (.220 ISO since 2012). He draws a favorable matchup against James Paxton who’s likely due for some regression (.263 wOBA allowed to RHB but has a .240 BABIP despite not displaying any elite skills other than awesome groundball skills). Safeco Field is considered an extreme pitcher’s park, which is ultimately why I view Pujols as a better tournament play than a cash game option (albeit an elite tournament option). There’s a cluster of first basemen that I like mostly for the same reasons. Justin Morneau (COL) also draws a favorable matchup against Matt Garza, who allows plenty of aerial opportunities in a hitter’s ballpark. Morneau has a strong three year hitting profile against RHP but he’s not up to the level of Paul Goldschmidt (won’t get dragged down when platoon advantage is taken away). I consider Morneau a great tournament option in a plus matchup. Like Morneau, I also view Chris Davis (BAL) as an elite tournament selection who can be used in cash games on some sites as well. He has displayed a massive power profile against RHP since 2012 (.284 ISO) and a matchup against Nate Karns, who’s holding a spot in the rotation mostly because Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly aren’t healthy at the moment. Karns struggled to keep the ball in the park in the Major Leagues and his Minor League profile suggests more of the same. In 145 IP in the minors last season, Karns posted a 5.08 ERA. Davis is worthy of tournament consideration in a good matchup and on DraftKings he has third base eligibility (makes him a viable value on that particular site at that position). Karns does have a good strike out rate (9.47 K/9 in the Minor Leagues last season) and even though Davis has well above average power, it comes with its costs (31 K percentage with the platoon advantage since 2012). Ike Davis (OAK) and C.J. Cron (LAA) are two hitters that deserve to be on your radars tonight. If weather concerns clear up, Davis would get a remarkable matchup against perhaps the worst pitcher in MLB last season, Colby Lewis. Lewis allows plenty of hard contact to LHB (22.2 line drive percentage) while allowing a barrage of aerial opportunities (44.5 percent fly ball percentage, 1.30 home runs per nine since 2012). Davis has shown a good power profile in the last few seasons (.198 ISO) and if he continues hitting fifth, he will remain a good value. If Cron hits towards the top of the lineup, he should also be considered as a great cost effective value. Cron flashed great power potential (.204 ISO) in a limited sample at the Major League level last season and draws a LHP that should regress this season (James Paxton, who held down RHBs to a .263 wOBA despite not showing any elite skills other than keeping the ball in the ground and a .240 BABIP was a major driver of his success).

Second Base

Top Play:

Robinson Cano (SEA) (not a favorable matchup against a LHP tonight but makes for a good contrarian tournament play)

Value Play:

Ben Zobrist (OAK) – I mentioned earlier that Oakland has a great matchup against Colby Lewis, who has a pedestrian skill set against LHB. It’s worth repeating that Lewis provides a ton of aerial opportunities (44.5 fly ball percentage, 1.30 home runs per nine). Zobrist has displayed excellent plate discipline (0.95 EYE), which bodes well for sites that gives negative points if a hitter failed to get on base (FanDuel). Additionally, Zobrist has a .158 ISO against RHP since 2012, giving him some power upside on a site like DraftKings where home runs and doubles are weighed more heavily. There’s plenty of salary relief due to the pitcher options that are available to us tonight (other than Greinke and he’s not expensive on most sites), making Zobrist a nice value around the industry even if the price isn’t where you want it. He hit third for the Athletics last night, giving him an elite lineup spot to produce and get more at bats. He’s a remarkable value tonight and the best way to access the matchup against Colby Lewis (as long as weather concerns dissipate later on today).

Joe Panik (SF) – We reaped the benefits of yesterday’s content, as we saw Joe Panik have a very good night (two singles, one double and two runs) batting second for the Giants against a weak starter that pitches to contact. Panik will once again hit second for the Giants tonight and will get another matchup against a pitcher that allows plenty of contact to LHB. He comes at very low cost on FanDuel and allows you to get exposure to a top of the order bat in one of the better hitting situations on this slate.

Jace Peterson (ATL) – Yesterday, co-writers Drew Dinkmeyer and Michael Leone raved about Peterson’s spot in the lineup (batting second) and his favorable hitting profile at the Minor League level (.306/.406/.464 at AAA last season) combined with his ability to run (192 stolen base attempts in 389 career minor league games). The reason I’m quoting yesterday’s content is because the same remains true tonight. Peterson should continue to hit second for the Braves and comes at a near minimum price tag around the industry. Middle Infield is a great position to save some salary and in order to fit top plays like Paul Goldschmidt, Mike Trout or Buster Posey. It makes sense to punt the position with a hitter at the top of the lineup who has the platoon advantage and comes at a low cost.

Additional second base notes: Scooter Gennett (MIL) continues to rank as one of our strongest platoon advantages of this slate but it seems like he will continue to bat seventh in the lineup. If Ryan Braun sits, I’m hoping that Gennett slides back into the top of the lineup and if that’s the case, he becomes the best value play at the position. His matchup against Jordan Lyles (allows plenty of hard contact to LHBs) provides solid profit potential to a hitter like Gennett, who has accrued a .366 wOBA against RHP over the last couple of seasons. If Logan Forsythe (TB), Martin Prado (MIA) and Jeff Baker (MIA) obtain a premier lineup position, they have strong platoon advantages (Forsythe has by far the better matchup) and are punt options (throw Rickie Weeks (SEA) in that group as well). These hitting situations will be monitored via our alerts system.

Shortstop

Top Play:

Troy Tulowitzki (COL) – It’s difficult to not name Tulowitzki the top overall option at the shortstop position when the next available options are Jimmy Rollins and Asdrubal Cabrera (both really solid values). No hitter at the shortstop position (and could argue at any position when Tulowitzki is at Coors Field) comes close to Tulowitzki’s upside and on a night where we have to roster secondary starting pitching options, there’s enough salary left over to play him in every format. He’s not at Coors Field and he’s priced as if he is but no other shortstop has the upside that he brings to the table.

Additional shortstop notes: Jimmy Rollins (LAD) and Asdrubal Cabrera (TB) are my favorite values at the shortstop position. Rollins doesn’t have an appealing matchup but his leadoff position in a potent lineup is certainly favorable. Cabrera has a favorable matchup against a fly ball oriented pitcher and if he continues to hit third, he will remain a good value. He’s not a great hitter (or even an average hitter) but he’s solid enough that a lineup boost (hitting third) makes him a nice value. Willie Bloomquist (SEA) becomes a pure punt play if he draws the start. His value relative to his salary is nice considering he would have the platoon advantage in a favorable matchup, although his skills do leave much to be desired.

Third Base

Top Play:

Evan Longoria (TB) – Besides being the top play at third base, Longoria is a top 15 overall hitter according to our model. Longoria saw a steep reduction in his power last season (.151 ISO last season compared to .230 and .238 in the previous two seasons), especially when he held the platoon advantage (.175 ISO against LHPs last season compared to .266 and .348 ISO in the previous two seasons). That could have been the effect of playing a full season (first time in his career) or the beginning of deterioration due to age (he’s 29, usually happens in the early thirties but not every hitter ages quite the same). Regardless, Longoria still held a nice power profile last season against LHPs (even if it wasn’t the same as it used to be) and his matchup against Wei-Yin Chen, a southpaw that allows plenty of aerial opportunities (41.6 fly ball percentage, 1.27 home run per nine), fits his hitting profile, especially if you expect a bounce back season in general. Longoria is a great option on looser pricing sites, but don’t be afraid to dip into the value play section on a site like FanDuel (pricing a bit tougher if playing Greinke).

Value Play:

Jacob Lamb (ARI) – This recommendation will certainly need to be verified in the alerts system but if Lamb is hitting in a top 5-6 lineup spot, he becomes a great value play. Last season, Lamb put up a triple slash of .318/.399/.551 at the Minor League level (439 plate appearances). Last night, he almost singlehandedly salvaged the game for the Giants, making a pinch hit appearance with the bases loaded and delivering with a bases clearing double. Sure, it’s a small sample but his matchup against Ryan Vogelsong (25.4 line drive percentage, 36.5 fly ball percentage) gives him enough opportunities to deliver great value relative to his modest price point (minimum priced on FanDuel). We’re a bit bullish on Lamb in general at this price tag thanks to a nice Spring Training backed up by scouting endorsements (such as ESPN’s Keith Law).

Additional third base notes: Aramis Ramirez (MIL) can be considered as a next in line option to Evan Longoria. His price point remains favorable around the industry. Jordan Lyles is mostly a contact pitcher (16.5 K percentage, well below league average) and Ramirez has posted a .281/.344/.439 since 2012. Nolan Arenado (COL) is an elite tournament option.

Outfield

Top Plays:

Mike Trout (LAA) – Trout is the top overall hitter according to our model this evening (and it’s not particularly close), as he gets the platoon advantage against a southpaw that will face regression, regardless of his great groundball profile (James Paxton held RHB to a .263 wOBA, which was mostly BABIP induced). Trout has posted a .394 wOBA and .226 ISO against LHP in the last few seasons, which makes him a top play on most nights regardless of the matchup. Scary to think that Mike Trout is only 23 years old and has already displayed this type of hitting profile, which means it’s possible we haven’t seen his tools fully developed. It’s fairly easy to fit Trout in on two starting pitcher sites due to the plethora of cost effective values in the middle infield and starting pitching. He’s in play in all formats, particularly in cash games.

Next in line:

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) – Stanton is the second overall hitter (according to our model) tonight and even though his matchup isn’t great (Alex Wood is a good pitcher, holding down RHB to a .294 wOBA and posting a 23 K percentage), his skills make him matchup proof (178 wRC+, .319 ISO against LHP since 2012). Like Trout, Stanton hasn’t even reached peak levels yet (25 years old) and only continues to get better (.403 wOBA, .267 ISO last season compared to .368 wOBA, .231 ISO in 2013). He’s a better tournament option than a cash game play due to his matchup but if you’d like to diversify your portfolio of high end cash game plays, Stanton makes for an excellent next in line option to Mike Trout.

Value Play:

Nelson Cruz (BAL) – Cruz should be priced like Trout or Stanton based on his hitting profile against southpaws but that’s not the case around the industry. Cruz has accrued a .395 wOBA and .232 ISO against LHP since 2012 and even though regression is likely coming at some point (he’s 34 years old, usually the age where skills deteriorate but it’s fair to point out that not all hitters age in a linear way), a matchup against C.J. Wilson (rapidly deteriorating, had a 4.51 ERA last season after posting 3.83 and 3.39 ERAs in the previous two seasons and has allowed a 22 line drive percentage to RHB since 2012) is a great spot to spend on Cruz’s depressed price point (likely a result of moving to a pitcher friendly park after being in a hitter friendly park). If you choose to spend on two top tier pitchers, spending on Cruz instead of one of Stanton or Trout on two pitching sites is an ideal decision for cash games.

Additional outfield values: There are a plethora of values at the outfield position and I’ll try to be brief with them. Once again, Carlos Gonzalez and Corey Dickerson (COL) have the platoon advantage in a plus matchup once again. Gonzalez (hitting second) is the cheaper value around the industry but if Dickerson is able to crack a spot in the top of the lineup, he becomes an even better play. As of right now, Gonzalez is a next in line option to the top plays (Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton) while Dickerson is also in the conversation as a next in line Top play but his lineup spot (hit sixth in the lineup yesterday) hurts his value for cash games. Both have outstanding hitting profiles against RHP and Matt Garza struggles to keep the ball in the park (1.10 home runs per nine) and gives up plenty of aerial opportunities (37 fly ball percentage) in a park that’s not conducive of supporting fly balls (Miller Park is an extreme hitter’s park). Angel Pagan and Norichika Aoki (SF) are way too cheap on FanDuel and Greinke is close to being fairly priced on that site, which makes it harder to spend on top outfield options like Stanton or Trout in cash games. Pagan and Aoki are my top outfield values after Nelson Cruz, Carlos Gonzalez and Cory Dickerson and even though they don’t have a good power profile, they’re intricate parts of the top of the order for the Giants offense (Aoki is the leadoff hitter, Pagan is currently hitting third). They’re part of one of my favorite hitting situations on this slate (facing a weak RHP who struggles against LHs in a great hitter’s park). Mark Trumbo (ARI) is an exceptional value if he’s able to draw a premiere lineup spot. His matchup against Ryan Vogelsong (allows plenty of opportunities for hard contact) fits his power profile well. If Ryan Braun is out, Gerardo Parra (MIL) can be grouped with Aoki and Pagan as one of my favorite values around the industry (if hitting in top 5-6 lineup spot). Parra has one of our strongest platoon advantages in our hitter model and a matchup against a contact pitcher fits his hitting profile well. Carlos Gomez (MIL) can be considered a good tournament play. He gets another matchup against a contact pitcher (.351 wOBA, .192 ISO and 24 K percentage against RHP since 2012). Alejandro De Aza (BAL), Travis Snider (BAL) and Eric Young Jr. (ATL) continue to have the platoon advantage and make for solid values but they’re better on sites that require more salary cap relief options from the outfield position.

Starting Pitcher

Top 5

Tier 1

1) Zack Greinke

Tier 2

2) Tyson Ross

3) Alex Wood

4) Mat Latos

5) Jesse Hahn

Top Play:

Zack Greinke (LAD) – Greinke has been a dominant number two pitcher for the Dodgers, posting ERAs of 2.63 and 2.71 in the last two seasons. His three year profile, which includes a 8.43 K rate, 2.17 walk rate, 47.9 ground ball percentage and 0.76 HR/9, gives us more depth into just how good he’s been. He faces a revamped Padres offense, consisting of Justin Upton, Wil Myers and Matt Kemp. While those hitters are obvious upgrades, they’ll also strike out a lot and don’t hold the platoon edge on Greinke. Myers, Kemp and Upton struck out more than 24 percent of the time in the last three years and ZiPS projections for this season indicates more of the same for these hitters. Greinke should have a good amount of success against this predominantly right-handed lineup, since he’s held right-handed batters to a .280 wOBA and a measly 0.64 HR per nine in his last three years while posting a 23.9 K percentage. Greinke can be utilized in all formats tonight but I’m particularly utilizing him in cash games as a foundational component of my lineups. He’s the second highest favorite on this slate (-160) and this game has a projected low scoring environment (six and a half game total, lowest on this slate).

Value Play:

Jesse Hahn (OAK) – In a small sample last season (73 innings at the Major League level), Hahn posted an above average K rate (8.59), HR per nine (0.49) and FIP (3.40) thanks to a devastating changeup but had problems with his command (3.93 walk rate, well below league average and ZiPS projects that this will carry over into this season). The Rangers offense battled through a myriad of injuries throughout last season (Prince Fielder only played 42 games before he needed back surgery and was out for the rest of the season) but they posted a .294 wOBA against right-handed pitchers (ranked 26th in MLB). They got Prince Fielder back this season but didn’t make any real improvements to the offense during the offseason (other than getting healthy). Take advantage of his cheap price point around the industry (particularly as a second pitcher on DraftKings) while he takes on a below average offense in a great pitchers park (according to parkfactors.com, Oakland Coliseum is an extreme pitchers park). Hahn and the Athletics are the biggest favorites on this slate (-165) and while I view him as an excellent source of salary relief at a position that lacks depth (most elite starting pitchers took the mound last night), he’s a better cash game option on two pitchers sites (Greinke ranks well ahead of him in a better game environment).

Additional starting pitcher notes: Mat Latos (MIA) is a secondary cash game value tonight. The Braves trotted out six left-handed batters last night (against Henderson Alvarez) but none of these hitters are a threat (especially towards the bottom of the lineup, where Kelly Johnson and Alberto Callaspo are currently slotted). Latos has been solid against left-handed batters in the last three years, holding them to a .307 wOBA. Even though Latos allows a good amount of aerial contact (36.6 fly ball percentage against left-handed batters), going from an extreme hitter’s park (Great American Ballpark) to an extreme pitcher’s park (New Marlins Ballpark) should help. Like Hahn, Latos is better on two pitchers sites as we’re not fully convinced the favorable Vegas game odds reflect some of his risk (poor K rate and velocity last season, Spring Training did nothing to soothe those concerns). Tyson Ross (SD) is an awesome tournament play, taking part in the best game environment for pitchers tonight (lowest game total). He’s walked 11 percent of left-handed batters in his last three years but keeps the ball on the ground at a good rate (55.7 ground ball percentage) and has meaningful strikeout upside. Due to the lack of values at the position now that STL-CHC has been postponed, Ross can be considered for cash games on two pitcher sites.

Macro Thinking, Stacks, and Tournament Notes:

Top Stacks:

  1. San Francisco Giants
  2. Arizona Diamondbacks
  3. Milwaukee Brewers

Tournament Stacks:

  1. Colorado Rockies (this stack is also viable for cash games)
  2. Los Angeles Angels
  3. Seattle Mariners
  4. Atlanta Braves (contrarian)

The San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks are my top stacks. The hitting environment in this game (Chase Field) combined with the pitchers (both are below average) makes it intriguing from a power perspective (Goldschmidt, Trumbo, Belt) as well as overall contact (Pagan, Aoki, Panik, Lamb). This game is surrounded with top plays as well as excellent values and if I’m looking to stack for any format, these two teams are at the top of my list. The favorable pricing on Giants hitter also played a role in making them a top stack. The Milwaukee Brewers will likely be ignored after they failed to do anything yesterday but I still view them as a good stack for tournaments and some of the individual plays (Aramis Ramirez, Jonathan Lucroy, Gerardo Parra and Scooter Gennett, the latter two if they draw a good lineup position) are viable for cash games. Khris Davis has a good power profile (even without the platoon advantage, posted a .220 ISO in the last few seasons) and faces a contact pitcher (bodes well for his hitting profile since he has a 30 K percentage against RHP).

After San Francisco, Milwaukee and Arizona, the Colorado Rockies make a lot of sense in just about any format. They will also be playing in a great hitting environment (it’s not Coors Field but it’s still a great hitter’s park) and Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, Nolan Arenado, Corey Dickerson and Justin Morneau have great power profiles (Charlie Blackmon can still be considered but he doesn’t have the same power upside as the names above). Matt Garza has fly ball tendencies, especially against LHBs, and this Rockies lineup is comprised of a good amount of powerful bats (especially Dickerson and Gonzalez). If you want very strong platoon advantages in a bad hitter’s park, the Los Angeles Angels and the Seattle Mariners are the way to get exposure to that type of situation. Mike Trout, C.J. Cron and David Freese have good profiles against LHP and James Paxton is due for some regression (.240 BABIP last season). He has a great ability to keep the ball on the ground but these hitters are very good (especially Trout and Pujols). Nelson Cruz and Justin Ruggiano make for a good mini stack for cash games (and tournaments). Both have great skills against LHP, especially in the power department. C.J. Wilson has been deteriorating quickly, which can be attributed to a lack of command and allowing hard contact (22 line drive percentage since 2012). Rickie Weeks and Willie Bloomquist could emerge as serviceable punt plays in both cash games and tournaments if they’re able to start. They have wide platoon splits and therefore are better options for tournaments (could lose at bats later on in the game against RHP).

The Atlanta Braves are just contrarian plays to fill the rest of your roster. Their lineup isn’t built around much power (key departures in the offseason) but Marlins Ballpark is good for contact hitters (like Eric Young Jr. and Jace Peterson), who are able to utilize their speed and contact abilities to create extra base hits. Nick Markakis was in a good lineup spot yesterday (third) and he can also be considered if you want to utilize some off the radar contrarian tournament plays (these options are all cheap around the industry). Freddie Freeman (ATL) has a good power profile and overall hitting skills, which makes him a good contrarian tournament play in an okay matchup. Mat Latos tends to be fly ball prone, especially against LHBs (36.6 fly ball percentage) and while that bodes well for him now that he’s in a pitcher’s park, the contact hitters I mentioned are in a good spot to put some fly balls in play and utilize their speed. With all that said, this is mostly a play taking a chance that 1.) Mat Latos is broken (rough Spring and low velocity/K rate last year) and 2.) Change to get a stack coming with extremely low ownership.

Weather Forecasts

STL-CHC: Postponed, remove all players from consideration.

TEX-OAK: Showers, cool, damp. Shouldn’t be heavy rain so they may try and get this one in. However, there will be quite a bit of rain during the day prior….so real tough call. If they play, severely favors pitching. Temps in the mid 50s, Winds west 10-20 mph, which is blowing out towards right but that should not help the hitters much in real tough hitting conditions.

For game time, there will be showers around. Maybe some thunder. My biggest concern is that the field (which I know is not the most modern) is pretty wet. If they cancel the game, it would be from lots of water on the field. So, they may cancel this one early if they need to.

ATL-MIA: Dry, warm. Upper 70s. Moderate humidity. Air density favors hitters. Winds east 8-16 mph (blowing out towards left).

BAL-TB: dome

COL-MIL: Similar to Chicago so they will likely close the roof.

SF-ARZ:  Dry, warm. Near 70 falling into the mid 60s. Wind west 10 mph. Neutral air density. Wind west at 10 mph which blows from right to left.

LAA-SEA: Scattered showers and chilly. I will assume they will close the roof. A 5-10 mph northwest wind which blows in from left.

SD-LAD: Light rain at times. Temps near 60. Winds West 10 mph. Rain should be light enough that they get this one in. Air density severely favors the pitcher. Wind southwest 5-10 mph which is blowing out towards center.

MLB Daily Analysis

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