4/8 MLB DFS: McCarthy is a top starting pitcher value
Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
Weather: Rain looks like it is going to be an issue today. Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.
If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.
Primary targets: I decided to tackle the catchers completely in the notes section today as the top options remain the same as the past two days, and there isn’t really an elite matchup or pricing mistake I’m looking to take advantage of. Rather, I suggest playing it safe at catcher, especially in cash games, and target one of three rather obvious choices, all in good park environments with a lineup spot we like to target (top five or six) against suspect pitching. The first of these is Buster Posey (SF). Rarely will you see us target Posey on three consecutive days against RHP, but he’s the best all-around offensive catcher in baseball and there isn’t a lot of opportunity cost in using him today. He once again gets a pretty massive park shift playing in Arizona’s Chase Field and will face a below average RHP in Jeremy Hellickson (four consecutive seasons with a 4-plus xFIP and 1.24 HR/9 allowed in three of those five). The next in line option is Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) of the infuriating Brewers offense, which will once again have one of the higher team totals on the day. It’s best just to erase Lucroy’s (and the Brewers in general) disappointing first two days from your brain. Lucroy hits second for the Brewers and is at home against Eddie Butler. It’s a R/R matchup but Butler projects to be pretty bad all-around. ZiPS projection system is calling for a 5.24 ERA and below average K and BB rates (in 16 MLB innings last year Butler managed just three strikeouts against seven walks). About Butler’s only skill is his ability to keep the ball on the ground. The third and final catcher I’m targeting in cash games is Yan Gomes (CLE). He’ll face the underwhelming Scott Feldman in an indoor environment (Houston) that boosts right handed power. Feldman has been okay against RHBs the last few seasons (.313 wOBA allowed), but has yielded a 23.1 LD and over a HR/9. Meanwhile, Gomes has sustained decent pop for a catcher against RHP (.177 ISO). On a site like DraftKings where the three are clustered closely in terms of salary, I’d defer to the top option (Posey). But on FanDuel where the salaries are spread out a bit more I may save some money and diversify with Lucroy or Gomes.