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4/8 NBA DFS: Wednesday Sessions on Value Investing

4/8 NBA DFS: Wednesday Sessions on Value Investing
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – NBA DFS – April 8th, 2015

Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”.  Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.

Point Guard

Top Play:

Reggie Jackson (DET) – Jackson projects as the top point guard option on Wednesday’s slate. He faces the Celtics who rank 22nd in defensive efficiency against point guards. The game environment is strong (200.5 total, one point spread) but Jackson’s usage rate is in question. Greg Monroe is ready to return to the lineup and Jackson’s recent run has come without Monroe on the floor. For the season, Jackson has posted a 32.8 percent usage rate without Monroe on the floor but that dips to just 26.9 percent with Monroe on the floor. The challenge with Jackson is he’s largely priced off this recent bump in usage rate which we don’t expect will continue with Monroe back. The matchup with Boston should boost efficiency and Spencer Dinwiddie‘s injury could elevate his minutes. This gives some hope for Jackson to overcome Monroe’s presence, but the risk places a greater emphasis on price point. On sites like FanDuel where the price has moved slowly, Jackson still earns cash game consideration. On sites that the price has moved aggressively, he’s more of a secondary value play.

Value Plays:

Ramon Sessions (WAS) – Sessions will draw the start in John Wall‘s absence and he’ll likely play heavy minutes. The only other point guard on the roster is Will Bynum who is on a 10 day contract and has played five minutes in three games. I actually think Bynum is a decent player but Sessions should handle 30-35 minutes as the starting point guard. For his career, Sessions has averaged 0.87 Fantasy points per minute. If you project him for 30 minutes, a neutral matchup would earn a projection of 25-27 Fantasy points. Sessions will face the 76ers who rank 19th in defensive efficiency against point guards. With a minimum price tag, Sessions makes for one of the higher probability options to exceed his value thresholds.

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