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5/10 MLB DFS: We smell a SP value in Tampa on Sunday

5/10 MLB DFS: We smell a SP value in Tampa on Sunday
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MLB DFS Daily Fantasy Rundown – May 10th, 2015

Welcome to Sunday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.

Weather: LAD-COL is once again a problem area and DET-KC has some concerns as well. Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.

If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.

Catcher

Top Play:

Brian McCann (NYY) – McCann is always a part of the Daily Fantasy Rundown when he faces a below average RHP at Yankee Stadium. This is the case today, as McCann gets to face Bud Norris (has allowed a .362 wOBA and 1.29 HR/9 to LHB since 2012) at hitting friendly Yankee Stadium (increases left-handed power by ~17 percent above the league average). McCann has accrued a .183 ISO against RHP since 2012 (when he was part of the Atlanta Braves) but more importantly, he accumulated a .219 ISO against RHP at Yankee Stadium last season. This matchup against Bud Norris at Yankee Stadium meshes well with his best skill (power). His price point is accessible around the industry and he’s in play across all formats this afternoon.

Additional catcher notes: We’re basically guaranteed that McCann will be in the lineup for the Yankees today (his backup played yesterday). The catcher position is usually fluid on Sundays since teams are playing afternoon games after playing the night before (no need to risk other catchers on early lock sites if lineups aren’t available to us, which makes McCann stand out). Other catcher options that I’ll consider for cash games are Devin Mesoraco (CIN) (much better raw value on FanDuel due to a close to the bare minimum price tag; he will have the platoon edge against John Danks and he’s very good against LHP), Derek Norris (SD) (if Andrew Chafin starts for the Diamondbacks, Norris actually rates as the top overall catcher in our model; since we’re unsure if that’s’ the case and Norris played a game that went to extra innings last night, we’ll consider him a solid value alternative to Brian McCann) and Miguel Montero (CHC) (he’s been hitting cleanup against RHP for the Cubs and Matt Garza is very bad against LHBs). If you want to punt the catcher position, A.J. Ellis (LAD) won’t have the benefit of a good lineup spot but he will have the platoon advantage against the underwhelming Jorge De La Rosa at Coors Field. Check our alerts system later on today to see if these catchers are in their respective lineups.

First Base

Top Play:

David Ortiz (BOS) – Ortiz and Jose Abreu are ranked so closely in our model that the only difference is the price point. Ortiz is just too cheap around the industry, particularly on FanDuel. They’ve priced Ortiz as if he was an average hitter ($3,000) and we know this is untrue. This is what Ortiz has done to RHP since 2012: .412 wOBA, 162 wRC+, .283 ISO and a 1.12 EYE. This is what Ortiz has done to RHP this season: .395 wOBA, 152 wRC+, .221 ISO and 1.08 EYE. I’m not sure why he’s this cheap but he represents the best point per dollar value at any position and his price tag isn’t indicative of the fact that he’s the top overall play on this slate. Throw in a matchup against R.A. Dickey (1.16 HR/9 allowed to LHBs since 2012) at Rogers Centre (increases left-handed power by approximately six percent above the league average, Fenway Park suppresses left-handed power by approximately 10 percent below the league average) and Ortiz becomes an anchor of cash game lineups today.

Next in line:

Jose Abreu (CSW) – Abreu and Ortiz will be the only written options at first base and that’s mostly due to their ranking in our model (top two plays) and their accessible price tags around the industry (especially on FanDuel). Abreu doesn’t have the platoon advantage today but Abreu demolishes RHP (.394 wOBA, .250 ISO in 464 PAs) and he has a matchup against a contact pitcher at U.S. Cellular Field (increases right-handed power by ~14 percent above the league average). The White Sox will settle with a team total pushing 4.5 runs and Abreu is their best hitter.

Additional first base notes: If you’re not following our cash game approach of starting tier two starting pitchers and loading up on offense this afternoon, Adam LaRoche (CWS) is an awesome salary relief option industry wide. LaRoche is the White Sox cleanup hitter and this is an offense we like today, facing Michael Lorenzen (rookie pitcher who doesn’t project to miss many bats at the major league level) at U.S. Cellular Field (elite hitting environment). LaRoche has solid power skills and this matchup against a contact pitcher bodes well for his DFS value. He’s ranked among our top 20 hitters today but Ortiz and Abreu have the clear edge (top two overall plays). Another good secondary value that ranks among our top 20 hitters today is Lucas Duda (NYM). Duda is a good hitter against RHP and Chad Billingsley isn’t a very good pitcher. Duda also gets the benefit of a superior hitting environment (Citizens Bank Park increases left-handed power by ~9 percent above the league average). Anthony Rizzo (CHC) (nice skill set against RHP and Matt Garza struggles mightily against LHBs), Joey Votto (CIN) (L/L matchup but he’s an elite hitter even without the platoon edge and John Danks struggles against both LHBs and RHB) and Mark Teixeira (NYY) (excellent matchup against Bud Norris, a RHP that struggles to keep the ball in the park against LHBs and Teixeira benefits from the short porch at Yankee Stadium) are my preferred tournament values this afternoon.

Second Base

Top Plays:

Los Angeles Dodgers (Howie Kendrick, Justin Turner and Alex Guerrero) – The Dodgers are a staple of our analysis today since they have a matchup against Jorge De La Rosa (has allowed a .347 wOBA, 1.11 HR/9 and has only struck out 16 percent of RHB since 2012) at Coors Field (best hitting environment in MLB). Kendrick, Turner and Guerrero (all three are ranked within our top 35 hitters today) rate well in our model and they should all have favorable lineup spots today. The Dodgers had right-handed heavy lineup last night but unfortunately the game got postponed due to inclement weather. Kendrick, Turner and Guerrero we’re scheduled to hit 3-4-5 last night so we’re assuming that they will hold the same lineup spots today. Kendrick is the better hitter out of these three (.357 wOBA, .156 ISO against LHP since 2012) but Turner is the better cost effective value on FanDuel ($3,100) while Guerrero is as close to a must play as it gets on DraftKings (only $3,500 on that site). The Dodgers will have a team total around five runs today. Middle infield options with these contextual factors at accessible price tags are hard to find, which makes Kendrick (elite tournament option), Turner (elite value on FanDuel) and Guerrero (elite value on DraftKings) awesome values relative to their position (second base is generally a scarce position, even on a full slate).

Additional second base notes: Other value alternatives to the Dodgers second basemen are Brandon Phillips (CIN) (will have the platoon edge against the underwhelming John Danks at U.S. Cellular Field and will hit fifth), Devon Travis (TOR) (leading off for a Blue Jays offense that has a team total approaching five runs; better on DraftKings where he’s priced at $3,300), Dustin Pedroia (BOS) (won’t have the platoon edge but R.A. Dickey struggles with keeping the ball in the park and this Red Sox offense will settle with a team total around 4.5 runs) and Scooter Gennett (MIL) (minimum priced on FanDuel and will have the platoon advantage against a pitcher that doesn’t miss many bats at Miller Park).

Shortstop

Top Play:

Troy Tulowitzki (COL) – You can expect Tulowitzki to represent the top play at the shortstop position every time he’s facing a LHP at Coors Field. Tulowitzki has accrued a .425 wOBA and .267 ISO against southpaws since 2012 and those type of skills are unheard of at the shortstop position. Unfortunately, the southpaw he will be facing today is Clayton Kershaw (best pitcher in MLB). The shortstop position is so scarce (Jimmy Rollins is the next in line option and the only value that stands out) that Tulowitzki can still be played in cash games on DraftKings (only $4,700 on that site). I know the matchup is very difficult but Rollins is $4,500 on DraftKings and he’s nowhere near the type of hitter that Tulowitzki is.

Value Play:

Jimmy Rollins (LAD) – Rollins has a very accessible price point on FanDuel (priced as an average hitter and not taking into account all the juicy contextual factors). Rollins is a switch hitter so he will always have the platoon edge (good for his DFS value) and he will take on Jorge De La Rosa (doesn’t miss many bats) at Coors Field. Rollins is blessed with a good lineup spot (second) and he will be part of a Dodgers offense that will have a team total of at least five runs. Rollins is a remarkable value on FanDuel (viable alternative to Tulowitzki on DraftKings if you’re uncomfortable picking on Kershaw) and the next shortstop option is ranked outside of the top 100 hitters this afternoon (Rollins and Tulowitzki are ranked among our top 35 hitters).

Additional shortstop notes: Fringe secondary values at the shortstop position include Jhonny Peralta (STL) (will have the platoon edge against a below average southpaw but the hitting environment isn’t favorable) and Alcides Escobar (KC) (will be leading off for an offense that should find success against the underwhelming Shane Greene).

Third Base

Top Play

Todd Frazier (CIN) – Frazier is ranked among our top 20 hitters today and even though he’s priced accordingly across the industry, the matchup and contextual factors couldn’t get any better. Frazier has nice power skills against LHP (.206 ISO against LHP since 2012) and he’s generating more loft this season (47 percent FB rate, great for his power potential despite a HR/FB that should regress eventually). He will have a matchup against John Danks (.353 wOBA, 1.53 HR/9 and 16 percent K rate against RHBs since 2012) at U.S. Cellular Field (elite hitting environment). The Reds offense will have a team total anywhere from 4.5 to 5 runs this afternoon and Frazier will hit cleanup. Frazier is a great DFS option across all formats today.

Next in line:

Kris Bryant (CHC) – Bryant is ranked right behind Frazier in our model and he comes at an accessible price tag around the industry. We’ve been harping on the awesome loft that Bryant is generating (47 percent FB rate) and we trusted that homeruns per coming. Last night, Bryant delivered and hit his first career homerun at the major league level. More power is coming for the 23 year old, as ZiPS is projecting a .228 ISO for Bryant the rest of this season. Despite struggling against LHBs, Matt Garza has had success against RHBs in the last three seasons, holding them to a .300 wOBA. However, he’s been awful against RHBs this season (.366 wOBA allowed to RHBs) and he’s not generating strikeouts (15 percent K rate). This represents a favorable matchup and hitting environment (Miller Park) for Bryant and he’s a nice value alternative to Todd Frazier in cash games today.

Value Play:

Pablo Sandoval (BOS) – Sandoval is a nice cost effective value on FanDuel, where he’s priced below the average cost of a hitter. Sandoval will hit as a LHB today (better hitter from that side of the plate, has accumulated a .349 wOBA and.163 ISO against RHP since 2012) and he benefits from having a good lineup spot (fifth) in a potent Red Sox offense. The Red Sox will settle with a team total around 4.5 runs today and R.A. Dickey (struggles against LHBs, particularly keeping the ball in the park) represents a good matchup for this offense in this hitting environment (Rogers Centre is one of the premier destinations for hitters in MLB).

Additional third base notes: Other value alternatives at the third base position include Evan Longoria (TB) (has destroyed LHP in the last few seasons, accumulating a.385 wOBA and .244 ISO and he gets to face the below average Wandy Rodriguez) and Josh Donaldson (TOR) (much better hitter when he has the platoon advantage but his matchup against Clay Buchholz, the elite hitting environment and expected team success are factors that are driving his value in the right direction today). Alex Guerrero (LAD) has third base eligibility on DraftKings and he’s an elite value play regardless of the position on that site.

Outfield

Top Play:

Mike Trout (LAA) – (elite hitter without the platoon advantage and Scott Feldman has allowed a 1.15 HR/9 to RHB since 2012; poor hitting environment and high price point keeps him away from being a cash game value but his incredible skill set is enough to consider for tournaments).

Next in line:

Jose Bautista (TOR) – Bautista is the one outfielder that I’m willing to pay up for today. He’s an elite hitter against RHP and LHP and his matchup against Clay Buchholz is favorable. Buchholz has been a mess against RHBs this season, allowing a.400 wOBA (albeit in a small sample size). Bautista has amassed a .383 wOBA, .246 ISO and 0.91 EYE against RHP since 2012. The Blue Jays will settle with a team total pushing five runs this afternoon so it makes sense to have exposure to this elite offense. The tier 2 staring pitching options give you enough salary flexibility to roster a hitter like Bautista in your cash game lineups while still having exposure to the other top hitting situations.

Top Values:

Los Angeles Dodgers – Scott Van Slyke and Chris Heisey should be a part of the Dodgers lineup today against a LHP. Yesterday, Heisey was supposed to leadoff while Van Slyke was going to hit sixth (game got postponed). As long as those lineup spots remain, both Van Slyke and Heisey are awesome values industry wide (especially on FanDuel, where Van Slyke is priced as an average hitter and Heisey is minimum priced). In 232 PAs against LHP, Van Slyke has posted a .386 wOBA and .263 ISO while Heisey has a .222 ISO IN 275 PAs against southpaws. Heisey is a pinch hit risk later in the game so I’m taking a price sensitive approach here. Regardless, both have a premier matchup against an underwhelming LHP (Jorge De La Rosa) in the best hitting environment in MLB (Coors Field). Both are in play across all formats this afternoon but Van Slyke is the better value (ranked among our top 10 hitters and he’s priced as a top 30-40 hitter on most sites).

Marlon Byrd (CIN) – Byrd has a nice combination of skills (against LHP) and contextual factors today. Byrd has done very well against southpaws since 2012, posting a .363 wOBA and .208 ISO. He gets a matchup against John Danks (allows plenty of hard contact to RHBs and doesn’t miss many bats) at U.S. Cellular Field (elite hitter’s park). Byrd is blessed with a good lineup spot (second) and he will be a part of a Reds offense that has a team total pushing five runs today. Byrd is ranked among our top 15 hitters today and he’s priced as a top 30 outfielder. There’s value in that price tag so make sure to exploit this situation in cash games and/or tournaments.

Secondary Values:

Melky Cabrera (CHW) – Cabrera isn’t as good of a hitter as the written options above (hence why he’s more of a secondary value) but he will hit second for a White Sox offense that’s expected to do well (team total should settle around 4.5 runs) against Michael Lorenzen (doesn’t miss many bats and has a 5.08 ZiPS projected ERA this season). Cabrera is a fine value play this afternoon but he lags behind the written options above.

Alex Gordon (KC) – Gordon has posted a .278/.354/.437 triple slash line against RHP in the last few seasons but his matchup against Shane Greene is what we’re targeting today. Green has allowed a .357 wOBA, 23 percent LD rate and he’s only striking out 16 percent of LHBs (has faced 265 LHBs). Greene is not a good pitcher and his lack of strikeout ability won’t mesh well with this offense (not power driven but they make lots of contact). Gordon is generating nice loft (43 percent FB rate this season), which could improve his homerun totals. His price tag is fair around the industry but he makes for a nice value alternative to the written options above (Royals will have a healthy team total pushing 4.5 runs).

Additional outfielder notes: Preferred tournament values include Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY) (will have the platoon edge against Bud Norris at Yankee Stadium and he’s always a threat to steal multiple bases), Andrew McCutchen (PIT) (has been an elite hitter against LHP and he will have the platoon edge today), Michael Brantley and Brandon Moss (CLE) (they will have a matchup against Trevor May, who has allowed a .359 wOBA to LHBs since last season), Billy Hamilton and Jay Bruce (CIN) (Hamilton is always a threat to steal multiple bases and he will leadoff for an offense that’s expected to do well against John Danks; Bruce will be ignored due to a L/L matchup but he’s accumulated a .202 ISO against LHP since 2012). If the Padres outfield (Justin Upton, Matt Kemp and Wil Myers) get a matchup against Andrew Chafin (LHP), they become nice value alternatives to the written options above (they move ahead of Melky Cabrera and Alex Gordon). The Padres offense gets a huge park shift in their favor (from Petco Park to Chase Field) and they have a right-handed heavy offense. Upton and Kemp are the better hitters against LHP but Myers gets a nice lineup spot (leadoff) and will be surrounded by great hitters (Kemp will hit third while Upton will hit cleanup).

Starting Pitchers

Tier 1

1) Felix Hernandez (SEA)

2) Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – weather risk

Tier 2

3a) Jake Odorizzi (TB)

3b) Danny Salazar (CLE)

3c) Garrett Richards (LAA)

6) Michael Pineda (NYY)

7) Andrew Cashner (SD)

Tier 3

8) Jordan Zimmermann (WSH)

9) Jesse Chavez (OAK)

10) Ryan Vogelsong (SF)

Top Plays:

Felix Hernandez (SEA)/Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – It’s no surprise to see Hernandez and Kershaw at the top of our pitcher rankings. They’re ranked at the top of the SIERA rankings and their strikeout abilities always gives them an edge in DFS. Unfortunately, both have a couple of factors that makes them better tournament options rather than cash game values. Hernandez will have a matchup against an Oakland offense that doesn’t strike out much (16 percent K rate against RHP this season) and ranks seventh in wOBA (albeit in a small sample). Kershaw is the best pitcher in all of baseball but he will get an above average Rockies offense in the best hitting environment (Coors Field). Couple these factors with high price points (due to their great skills) and nice value pitchers that allow you to get exposure to the top offenses on a full slate and it makes sense to fade Hernandez and Kershaw in cash games.

Value Plays:

Jake Odorizzi (TB) – In terms of point per dollar value, Odorizzi is the top value play (especially on DraftKings, where he’s $1,400 cheaper than Danny Salazar, who represents the next in line option to Odorizzi). Odorizzi has an above average K rate, he barely walks anyone (five percent BB rate) while sporting a 2.21 ERA/2.24 FIP and all the underlying peripherals are above the league average this season. Combine that with the fact that Odorizzi has perhaps the best matchup of any pitcher on this slate (Texas projects to be a bottom five offense against RHP and they’re facing a significant downgrade in hitting environment going from Globe Life Park in Arlington to Tropicana Field, an elite pitching environment) and it’s easy to see why he projects so well in our model. On a full slate of games, it makes sense to use Odorizzi and Danny Salazar in cash games. They offer great value (nice K upside) at accessible price points and they allow you to have exposure to the top offenses (Cincinnati Reds and Los Angeles Dodgers) on this slate.

Danny Salazar (CLE) – Like Odorizzi, Salazar has a matchup against a below average offense. The Twins project to be a bottom half offense against RHP this season and their main power hitters (Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe) are significantly better against LHP. This offense doesn’t have much power potential outside of Dozier and Plouffe and they don’t have the benefit of having the platoon advantage today. This plays to Salazar’s favor since he can be prone to giving up the long ball (career 1.15 HR/9). Salazar is an elite strikeout pitcher (28 percent K rate in 188 career IP) but this season he’s taken his talents to another level. His K rate stands at 35 percent while his BB rate is a measly 4.7 percent. When looking at his underlying peripherals, it makes sense why this is happening. Salazar is getting hitters to chase at an elite level (38 percent chase rate, league average is 30 percent) and his SwStr rate is beyond great (16 percent SwStr rate, league average is 9.3 percent). He added a curveball to his pitching repertoire and he’s using his changeup more often (to go with his 96 MPH fastball). He’s a next in line option to Odorizzi but in reality he’s just as good of an option in cash games (and tournaments) today. Part of the reason I don’t see the need to force Felix Hernandez and Clayton Kershaw in cash games is because we’re getting discounted price points on Odorizzi and Salazar and their skills (while they’re not King Felix or Kershaw) are very good (particularly their K upside in their respective matchups).

Garrett Richards (LAA) – Richards’ price point varies more considerably than the two recommendations above but he pitches in the best environment against a weak offense on paper. Without George Springer, the Astros project as a below average offensive unit with a K Rate that approaches the league leaders. Richards hasn’t been able to produce an above average K rate (19 percent K rate through four starts) but the underlying peripherals are in line with the league average. There is reason to believe his K rate will improve, particularly in this matchup (Astros are striking out 24 percent of the time against RHP). The Astros will settle with a team total around 3-3.5 runs and the Angels are -160 favorites to win this game. Where priced similarly to Odorizzi and Salazar, Richards is another strong value play.

Additional starting pitcher notes: There are a few alternatives to the written options above. Michael Pineda (NYY) is pitching better than any of the value alternatives listed in this section (25 percent K rate, 2 percent BB rate and 54 percent GB rate) and he’s been a staple of our content this season. He gets the benefit of facing an Orioles offense that strikeouts 23 percent of the time against RHP. Unfortunately, this same offense is ranked second in MLB in wOBA through the first month of the season and they project to be an above average offense against RHP for the rest of the season. It’s a difficult matchup for Pineda at Yankee Stadium (short porch in right field) but his awesome skill set keeps him in the conversation as a cash game option. Andrew Cashner (SD) is the last secondary value that has some worth in cash games. Like Pineda, Cashner doesn’t get the benefit of a premiere pitching environment (Chase Field). However, he does have some wide splits (struggles against LHBs but dominates RHBs) and this plays in his favor today. He has a matchup against an average Diamondbacks offense that features anywhere from seven to eight RHBs. Cashner is striking out over a batter per inning and he’s keeping the ball in the ground for the most part (49 percent GB rate this season). He’s a fine secondary cash game option this afternoon.

Macro Thinking, Stacks, and Tournament Notes:

This is a new section we’ve created to try and offer more dedicated macro thinking to our analysis and hopefully add more value to those playing tournaments. The format is a bit of a work in progress and we welcome feedback (help@dailyroto.com) if you have suggestions.

Top Tournament Stacks/Cash Game Mini Stacks:

1) Los Angeles Dodgers

2) Cincinnati Reds

3) Toronto Blue Jays

4) Boston Red Sox

Contrarian/Secondary Stacks:

1) New York Yankees

2) San Diego Padres

3) Chicago White Sox

4) Cleveland Indians

5) Kansas City Royals/Detroit Tigers

The top tournament stacks/cash game mini stacks don’t deserve much commentary. The Dodgers, Reds, Blue Jays and Red Sox were the main offenses featured in the Daily Fantasy Rundown today. These offenses will face below average pitchers in elite hitting environments. They belong in all formats.

The Yankees headline the contrarian section of our secondary tournament stacks. This offense will get the short porch of Yankee Stadium and will face a pitcher (Bud Norris) who struggles to against left-handed power. I would consider any LHB from this lineup in tournaments today, particularly Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann.

The Padres are the second ranked offense in our contrarian stacks but that hinges upon the starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks today. Early indications are pointing towards LHP Andrew Chaffin making the spot start and if that’s the case, Wil Myers, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Derrick Norris belong in all formats, particularly tournaments. There are enough good hitting situations today and that should keep ownership rates at reasonable levels. This offense is very stackable today as long as a LHP is taking the mound.

The White Sox have a matchup against a contact pitcher in their home park (U.S. Cellular Field). This offense isn’t very good but Adam Eaton, Melky Cabrera, Jose Abreu, Adam LaRoche and Avisail Garcia can be stacked in a multi-entry tournament. The reason they’re ranked third in our tournament section is because there are better offenses in similar (or better) situations.

Trevor May struggles against LHBs and the Indians have a lineup full of them. I don’t deem it necessary to stack this whole offense but the first five hitters (Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana, Brandon Moss and Lonnie Chisenhall) have nice tournament value.

I expect the Royals and Tigers to have the lowest ownership levels out of the teams mentioned in the tournament section. The reason I expect the low ownership is because they’re playing at night and DFSers won’t want to risk having hitters from this game (we won’t have lineups before lineups lock). Chris Young and Shane Greene are below average pitchers. I see some tournament value in using some mini stacks from these two teams (particularly Royals LHBs and Miguel Cabrera).

MLB Game Weather Forecasts

In the scales below, a 10 strongly favors the batter, a 1 strongly favors the pitcher and a 5 has no impact on the game. On the scales used below, a 10 strongly favors the batter, a 1 strongly favors the pitcher and a 5 should not impact the game at all.

BLT at NYY 1:05: Dry. Temps in the low 80s. Air density is a 7 or 8. Wind south-southwest at 5-10 mph which blows out to left. The wind is a 6.

BOS at TOR 1:07: Tough call on the roof. There will be some spotty showers around so the rough should be closed. The showers are going to be pretty widely separated though. If the roof is open, temps will be in the low to mid 70s. Air density is a 7. Wind light and variable. The wind is a 5.

MIN at CLE 1:10: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2-3 PM. I think they will get this game in without too much in the way of problems. There could be a widely scattered shower before 2-3 PM that has no impact on the game. 20-30% chance of a delay late in the game. Temps low 80s/upper 70s. Air density is a 7 or 8. Wind southwest 5-10 mph which blows out to right-center. The wind is a 6 or 7.

TEX at TB 1:10: Dome.

ATL at WSH 1:35: A widely scattered shower or thunderstorm that has <10% chance of causing a delay. Really, no worries. Temps in the low to mid 80s. Air density is an 8. Wind southeast at 7-14 mph which blows out to left. The wind is a 6 to a 7.

NYM at PHL 1:35: Same forecast as Washington, a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm has <10% chance of impacting the game. Temps in the mid 80s. Air density is an 8. Wind south 8-16 mph which blows out to left-center. The wind is a 7.

STL at PIT 1:35: Dry. Temps in the mid 80s. Air density is an 8. Wind south-southwest 5-10 mph which blows from right to left. The wind is a 5.

CIN at CHW 2:10: A 20% chance of a few showers near the start of the game but it should end up dry. A 10% chance of a delayed start or a delay early in the game but I do not see a big deal here. Temps in the upper 40s/low 50s rising into the mid 50s. Air density is a 4. Wind north-northeast 5-10 mph which blows from left to right. The wind is a 5.

CHC at MIL 2:10: Retractable roof. A 30% chance of a shower near the beginning of the game so I will assume the roof will be closed.

HOU at LAA 3:35: Dry. Temps in the mid to upper 60s. Air density is a 6. Wind west-southwest 8-16 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 7.

MIA at SF 4:05: Dry. Temps in the low 60s. Air density is a 5 or a 6. Wind west 12-25 mph which blows out to center. The wind is a 7 or an 8.

OAK at SEA 4:10: Retractable roof. Dry. Temps in the upper 60s so the roof will likely be open. Air density is a 6 or 7. Wind southwest 5-10 mph which blows out to center. The wind is a 6.

LAD at COL 4:10: They have several inches of snow on the ground (about 3-6 inches in the city) and snow there early this morning will taper off to some very light flurries with no real additional accumulations. It will be cold and miserable conditions for baseball with temperatures only getting into the mid to upper 30s (it is only 28 as of 8 AM Eastern time with light snow). You would have to say with all of the cancellations they have had there they really want to play this one (it should be dry or just a few flurries for the game this late in the day) but there will be some snow still on the ground so this one will be almost impossible to play.

SD at AZ 4:10: Retractable roof. Dry. Temps in the mid to upper 80s falling into the lower 80s so the roof will likely be open. Air density is an 8. Wind west-southwest 6-12 mph which blows out to center. The wind is a 6.

KC at DET 8:00: A steady rain lifts north of the city right around the start of the game time. If this rain is slower moving out, a delay or a cancellation is possible (30-40% chance of a delay it looks like right now, 20% of a cancellation). However, everything I see says that the rain will lift away from the city sometime this evening which leads me to believe that they will play this game (especially true since it is the Sunday night game on TV??) Temps in the mid 60s falling to near 60. Air density is a 6 becoming a 5. Wind light and variable. The wind is a 5.

 

MLB Daily Analysis

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