5/5 MLB DFS Picks: David THE Goliath
DailyRoto’s MLB Solo Shot Host, Logan Hitchcock, gets you headed in the right direction with his 5/5 MLB DFS Picks. Check out where his mind is at today when it comes to roster construction at FantasyDraft. where they put players first – Daily fantasy baseball on a level playing field. Check them out tonight. Now, on to the the picks for tonight’s action.
Where to focus?
Fifth times the charm? Once again, the Toronto Blue Jays hold a premier matchup against southpaw Derek Holland tonight. While Holland is a better pitcher than some of the last few that have shut down the Jays, his handedness is what will have owners again salivating at the thought of Jays bats. The struggles are real, but with career ISOs of .311 and .246 for Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista respectively against lefties, it’s too much for me to pass up tonight. Donaldson’s price has dipped to $9,600 on FantasyDraft while you can still get Bautista ($7,800) and Edwin Encarnacion ($6,900) for absurdly low prices. I’ll be using the Jays once again and I’ll hopefully not be disappointed this time.
If you can’t stomach using the Blue Jays once again, look to Great American Ball Park or U.S. Cellular Field to find plenty of offensive options. In Cincinnati, a pair of inept teams, the Reds and Brewers will square off in a game with below average pitchers. Neither one of these teams are ideal full stacks, but if you’re searching for value or plug and play options for cash games this is a great place to look.
Alfredo Simon has struggled mightily for the Reds this season, allowing over three home runs per nine innings while walking nearly seven hitters per nine. The Brewers don’t have a lot of fire power, but what power they do have comes at the top of the order with Domingo Santana ($6,800), Ryan Braun ($9,200) and Chris Carter ($8,100). Plus, you might be able to find some value with Alex Presley ($4,000) or Jonathan Villar ($7,800). The Reds have less enticing options, but Joey Votto ($8,700) has great skills against right-handed pitching and Jay Bruce ($7,600) has an accessible price tag for tournaments.
In the other game, a pair of Sox teams will take the field. I’m already foaming at the mouth at the thought of David Ortiz ($9,000) against right-hander Erik Johnson tonight. Ortiz has showed elite skills against right-handers in his career, posting a .306 ISO and .421 wOBA and flashed his muscles last night with a monster homer off of Carlos Rodon. Furthermore, Mookie Betts ($8,800), Pedroia ($8,100), Bogaerts ($7,800) and any other hitter flanking Ortiz tonight is also in play for the Red Sox.
While there are plenty of places to focus offensively tonight, finding suitable options on the bump is a bit more difficult.
Jacob deGrom ($22,000)
Adam Conley ($13,200)
Masahiro Tanaka ($18,000)
Robbie Ray ($14,800)
deGrom is the clear cut top option on the slate and should just be forced into any lineup you are making at FantasyDraft. While he’s the most expensive pitching option by $4,000, his matchup with the San Diego Padres is one of the most exploitable that a pitcher can receive. deGrom has had some injury issues and his strikeout stuff has taken a bit of a hit as a result, but given the Padres 25.9% K% and 28th ranked wOBA of .282, I’m not too concerned. Lock him in.
As soon as you step away from deGrom you are dealing with a noticeable drop off tonight. I’m prefacing the next three options by saying that each carries risk in their own way, our job is to try and find the one that can mitigate a potentially disastrous start the best.
The best man for the job might be Adam Conley. Some highly thought of baseball analysts were all about Conley coming into the season and through his first five starts, everyone should be excited. He’s striking out more than a hitter per inning and while his command has been lacking, he’s pitched to a respectable 3.87 xFIP. Conley gets the Arizona Diamondbacks on a huge negative park shift away from Chase Field and given what he allows you to do offensively with his price savings, he’s a great option in my eyes.
Tanaka doesn’t have the worst matchup one could dream up, but pitching at Camden Yards is not ideal for an arm that has had some trouble with the long ball. Nevertheless, he’s fallen right back in line in terms of his strikeout stuff (just over eight per nine innings) and hasn’t been putting men on base. He’s pitched to a 3.08 xFIP so far this season and has actually managed to be elite at keeping the ball on the ground (59.6% GB %). I don’t expect that to continue, but I’m encouraged at the revival of his SwStr%, or the times that a hitter swings and misses at a pitch. The average SwStr% is only around 9.5% and Tanaka has been getting swing strikes 13.5% of the time this season.
Last but not least, I didn’t want to leave Robbie Ray off this list. Ray is another tilt-o-whirl arm because of his command, but boy does he have some good stuff. He’s a flyball arm that is getting to take advantage of the negative park shift that is hurting his offense and Ray has been striking out over a hitter per inning, just above his projections from ZiPS this season. The struggle is the command, as he’s putting over five hitters per nine innings on base via the free pass, but if he can somehow find a way to stay in the zone tonight he should not have much trouble with this Marlins team. Righties have been much better against him in his career, and the Marlins ability to get right-handed is concerning, but with not many options – something’s gotta give.