6/21 MLB DFS Picks: Nomar Messing Around
DailyRoto’s MLB Solo Shot Host, Logan Hitchcock, gets you headed in the right direction with his 6/21 MLB DFS Picks. Check out where his mind is at today when it comes to roster construction at FantasyDraft. where they put players first – Daily fantasy baseball on a level playing field. Check them out tonight. Now, on to the the picks for tonight’s action.
Where to focus?
On a full slate of games there is no shortage of offense tonight. Four different teams have implied run totals above five runs and a few others are closing in on the number. Of those teams, the Texas Rangers are certainly the most valuable assets on FantasyDraft. The Rangers draw a matchup with Anthony DeSclafani and the Cincinnati Reds in their home park in Arlington tonight. DeSclafani has pitched just under nine innings this season, but in that time he has been less than impressive, pitching to a 6.15 xFIP. In his young career he’s yielded plenty of hard contact and has been battered by .354 wOBA to left-handers. The Rangers fly under the radar from a roster perspective, but they carry plenty of value tonight. Shin-Soo Choo ($6,800) is back at the top of the order and there is no shortage of value near the middle with Nomar Mazara ($6,300), Adrian Beltre ($6,800) and Ian Desmond ($9,200) all being priced way down.
The Baltimore Orioles will be without Manny Machado, but their matchup with Luis Perdomo is still enticing from a DFS perspective. Perdomo has only made three starts so far this year and in his time in the bump he’s pitched to a 4.43 xFIP while allowing 1.50 HR/9. While the Orioles lose a lot of bite without Machado, they are still tied for the league’s highest ISO against right-handers and have the 4th best wRC+ as a team. Slugger Chris Davis ($10,400) is priced accurately for the matchup, but Mark Trumbo ($8,100), Matt Wieters ($8,100), Hyun Soo Kim ($7,600) and Pedro Alvarez ($8,000) all provide plenty of value with an implied team run total just under six runs.
The Toronto Blue Jays draw a matchup at home with a southpaw, typically a ticket on a run scoring train. However, without Jose Bautista the Jays have just a bit less bite. Their implied run total is still above five runs against left-hander Patrick Corbin, but it won’t be as easy to roster the studs. Both Josh Donaldson ($10,800) and Edwin Encarnacion ($10,400) carry high price tags, but are elite tournament options tonight at home.
The Houston Astros are not one of the teams with an implied run total above five runs, but their matchup with Hector Santiago is one that you can take advantage of. In perfect stack against fashion, Santiago is an extreme flyball pitcher that has allowed over 33% hard contact and exactly two homeruns per nine to right-handed hitters. The good news is the Astros will be able to stack up right-handed hitters from top to bottom against Santiago tonight. George Springer ($8,800), Carlos Correa ($7,500), Jose Altuve ($10,400) and Evan Gattis ($7,200) are all worthy of exposure tonight.
On the bump…
Despite a multitude of offensive options tonight, there is no reason to fret about starting pitcher. In perhaps the most lopsided matchup of the year, Miami ace Jose Fernandez gets to take on the hapless Atlanta Braves tonight. Fernandez has been magnificent this year, pitching to a 2.33 xFIP while striking out nearly 40% of the hitters he’s faced. While the Braves have been more contact oriented against right-handed pitchers, Fernandez is in a league of his own. Plus, any contact woes shouldn’t be much to worry about, as the Braves have the league’s third worst wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this year. You’ll be paying a near Kershaw-level price for him tonight, but it would be difficult to pass on this matchup.
Noah Syndergaard also takes the mound tonight, but his matchup with the Kansas City Royals is a bit less enticing. The Royals as a team strikeout just below 20% of the time against right-handed pitchers, but Syndergaard enjoyed some success against them earlier this season. Syndergaard has been insane this season, pitching to a 1.70 FIP, 2.16xFIP while striking out over 30% of the batters that step to the plate against him. While a sizable favorite at home, facing an opposing team run total of just three runs, it’ll be hard to rationalize Syndergaard over Fernandez tonight, especially in cash games.
Outside of the top two, there are still plenty of options to mull over at a variety of price points. At the top, Corey Kluber ($22,400) draws a matchup with a strikeout prone but powerful Tampa Bay Rays team. Kluber has been better than his ERA will show, pitching to an xFIP of 3.23 while still striking out more than a hitter per inning. The downfall is, the price tag will make it difficult to pair him with either of the top two tonight.
Looking for a cheaper alternative? How about Sonny Gray ($13,200)? I typically don’t advocate for Gray’s usage, but a heavy groundball guy against a weak Brewers squad is someone to keep your eye on. Gray doesn’t possess much in the way of strikeout upside, but the Brewers strike out the most in the league against right-handed pitching at over 25% of the time. He’s yielded a ton of hard contact this year and has struggled with command, but given the huge negative park shift, I say it’s worth a shot.