7/21 MLB DFS Picks: Rockie Mountain High
DailyRoto’s MLB Solo Shot Host, Logan Hitchcock, gets you headed in the right direction with his 7/19 MLB DFS Picks. Check out where his mind is at today when it comes to roster construction at FantasyDraft. where they put players first – Daily fantasy baseball on a level playing field. Check them out tonight. Now, on to the the picks for tonight’s action.
Where to focus?
Coors Field is back! Another day and another game at Coors highlights the offensive side of the MLB DFS landscape tonight. The Braves and Rockies will square off in what should be a high scoring affair and the most popular game for DFS purposes. The Rockies are the superior side tonight against right-hander Mike Foltynewicz. With an implied run total just under seven runs, the Rockies will be looking to pounce on a flyball arm that has allowed 1.77 HR/9 this season. Folty has certainly improved, but his career struggles with lefties presents some grand opportunity at the top of the Rockies order. Foltynewicz has allowed a .396 wOBA to lefties in his career and over two homers per nine. Carlos Gonzalez ($10,400) and Charlie Blackmon ($10,000) draw the best matchups, but the rest of the Rockies are all in play.
The Braves matchup is a bit less enticing, partly due to their inefficiencies on offense. Bettis has outperformed his five plus ERA with a 3.93 xFIP, but he’s not always been able to escape Coors. Freddie Freeman ($9,900) is the top option out of the Braves hitters, but supporting cast members Jace Peterson ($8,100) and Chase d’Arnaud ($7,200) both represent solid values in a great run-scoring environment tonight.
Outside of Coors Field, the most popular team will undoubtedly be the Boston Red Sox. The Sox are continually one of the best stack options due to their depth and power and tonight is no different. The Sox get a matchup with right-hander Tyler Duffey and have an implied run total of six runs. Nothing special will hold the Sox from dominating against Duffey as he’s allowed nearly a sixteen-point difference in hard versus soft contact while allowing nearly 1.50 HR/9 this season. The only Red Sox that are priced above $10,000 are David Ortiz and Mookie Betts, and the rest of the team provides plenty of complementary value.
Last but not least, the Chicago White Sox draw a matchup with the Detroit Tigers and Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey is always worthy of a stack against as he’s unable to record any strikeouts, walks nearly four hitters per nine and pitching to a 5.16 xFIP. The White Sox most expensive player is only $8,700, so stacking them up against Pelfrey will be no trouble tonight in a great offensive run-scoring environment.
On the Bump…
With only a seven game slate and a bunch of games featuring heightened offense, the pitching options tonight don’t stem too far. Adam Wainwright ($20,000) draws a prime matchup with the San Diego Padres, one that we’re consistently looking to take advantage of in DFS. Waino still hasn’t been able to completely right the ship in terms of strikeouts, but in his last three outings he’s thrown 23 innings and only allowed one earned run. The Padres strike out the second most in the league against right-handers at 24.5% of the time, so even with a strikeout rate of less than seven per nine, Waino should get a projected bump in strikeouts tonight.
Pairing an arm with Waino you’ll want to look towards the bottom of the salary spectrum and find Sonny Gray or Francisco Liriano. Gray ($12,000) draws a matchup with a strikeout prone Ray’s team (24.4% against right-handers) in a spacious ballpark at home. While Gray is typically a player we turn to for run prevention, the matchup with a strikeout prone team should like Wainwright, increase his strikeout projection and provide even more value to his already very accessible price tag. The Rays have an implied run total of 3.8 runs, so Gray isn’t bulletproof, but given the price tag and his propensity for rolling groundballs, I like his chances tonight.
Liriano ($13,600) has a matchup with the Milawaukee Brewers who are receiving a notable negative park shift in their move to PNC Park. Much like the previous two arms, Liriano hasn’t quite been himself this season, largely due to his inability to throw strikes. He’s walked nearly six hitters per nine innings and has pitched to a 4.81 xFIP. Tonight though, he draws a matchup with a Brewers team that is in the top six in terms of strikeouts against left-handers. He’s a home favorite and someone you can look to in tournaments for nice upside.
Last but not least, Steven Wright ($18,000) draws a matchup with a weak Minnesota Twins team. It’s difficult to predict anything a knuckleballer might do, but Wright has been fairly consistent this season. He’s struck out over seven hitters per nine innings while inducing a lot of soft contact and only three percent more hard contact all year. The Twins have built a wRC+ in the bottom third of the league against right-handers and Wright is a huge home favorite.