7/26 MLB DFS Picks: Here Lies Mike Pelfrey
DailyRoto’s MLB Solo Shot Host, Logan Hitchcock, gets you headed in the right direction with his 7/26 MLB DFS Picks. Check out where his mind is at today when it comes to roster construction at FantasyDraft. where they put players first – Daily fantasy baseball on a level playing field. Check them out tonight. Now, on to the the picks for tonight’s action.
Where to focus?
Seemingly every single day we’re honing in on the Red Sox offense against some right-handed pitcher. Sometimes those pitchers aren’t that bad and other times, like tonight, those pitchers are very bad. The Red Sox won the “obligatory stack against Mike Pelfrey award” tonight and it should be a grand time. With an implied run total of well more than six runs, the Sox look to use their prowess against right-handed starters to dominate Pelfrey and his 5.12 xFIP. Pelfrey has only recorded 4.02 strikeouts per nine innings this season and during the same span he’s nearly walked an equal amount (3.67 BB/9). David Ortiz ($11,100) has climbed into a different atmospheric level in terms of pricing and the rest of the Red Sox have received similar price bumps. Does that mean you should look elsewhere? I say not! Load up on the Red Sox and you’ll avoid being in the red tonight.
I should probably recommend more than one team, despite the level of chalk that will undoubtedly be attached to the Sox tonight. With Jose Bautista ($8,100) back in the fold, the Blue Jays are a much more formidable offense. Hopefully Andrew Cashner is still around to pitch tonight as the Jays should have no trouble with his 4.53 xFIP and an 18 percentage point difference between his allowed hard and soft contact. Edwin Encarnacion ($8,700), Bautista and fellow outfielder Michael Saunders ($8,400) carry accessible prices and should be heavily featured on a night where the Jays hold an implied run total just under six runs. The trio can be paired with slugger Josh Donaldson ($10,000) in tournaments or cash games.
Neither the Brewers or Diamondbacks typically garner a ton of our focus on a particular night, but the fireworks could be flying tonight. Left-hander Patrick Corbin and veteran right-hander Matt Garza take the mound in what could be a battle of “who can get hit the softest.” Corbin has struggled mightily this season, nearly doubling his walk rate per nine innings while taking a hit in terms of strikeouts and allowing the most hard contact (39.3%) of any qualified starter this season. The Brewers will deploy a few hitters of note in Ryan Braun ($10,400), Jonathon Lucroy ($8,800), Chris Carter ($7,800) and Jonathon Villar ($10,000) but aside from Braun, they might be best reserved for tournaments.
Matt Garza has only made seven starts this season, but he’s been horrible in even that amount of time. He’s posted an ERA close to six while being unable to record strikeouts and allowing near one homer per nine innings. He’s allowed an identical rate of hard hit contact as Corbin (39.3) and will have to face a tough and underpriced duo in Paul Goldschmidt ($9,000) and Jake Lamb ($9,300). The pair make for solid cash game plays against a struggling righty in a great ball park for power, but are an even better tournament combination with the chalk so firmly entrenched elsewhere tonight.
While the Cincinnati Reds will most likely not show up on anyone’s radar tonight, I felt it my duty to point out their matchup with Matt Cain is exploitable. Now the Reds aren’t great, but the four man combo of Billy Hamilton ($8,700), Adam Duvall ($8,000), Jay Bruce ($8,700) and Joey Votto ($10,000) packs a lot of upside in both speed and power. Of course, the ballpark also doesn’t favor the Reds bats, but Cain’s extreme flyball nature and 4.99 xFIP make up for it. If you’re looking to be off the board tonight, these guys are a solid bet.
On the Bump…
It’s not the best night for starting pitching, so prepare to embrace a bunch of cringeworthy options. Perhaps the best starter on the slate is Danny Salazar ($18,300) but his matchup with the Washington Nationals isn’t the best we can find. The Nationals are both in the middle of the pack in terms of wRC+ against right-handers and in terms of strikeout percentage. While Salazar’s strikeout projection might take a bit of a hit tonight, his strikeout rate of 10.10 K/9 is still good enough that he’ll be able to mitigate any earned run disasters that plague him. He’s pitched to a 3.62 xFIP this year, despite a drop in command and a fairly wide difference in soft and hard contact rates. It’s not difficult to fit him in your lineup tonight, and simply based on the other options, he might have to be your number one starter.
Aside from Salazar, the ball turns to Chris Archer ($16,800) who draws a matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Much like the Nationals, the Dodgers are not incredibly strikeout prone against right-handers and they’ve built the eleventh best wRC+ in the league this season. Archer has an even cheaper price tag than Salazar and coupling his similar strikeout potential makes him another viable option tonight. Much like Salazar, he’s had troubles with hard hit contact and the command has still not been there in this rollercoaster-esque season for him. The Dodgers have an implied run total of around four runs, but again our focus tonight might be on mitigating earned runs with strikeouts. That’s our best bet with Archer.
The only other pitcher that might be able to match Salazar and Archer in terms of strikeouts is left-hander Francisco Liriano ($16,200). In terms of wild rides, Liriano’s season has probably been the most wild as he’s racked up a walk rate of over five hitters per nine. Still though, the lefties strikeout potential is evident as he’s been able to strikeout more than a hitter per inning despite a huge drop in his SwStr%. While the Mariners aren’t particularly prone to strikeouts and they have a middle of the pack wRC+ against southpaws, their move to a National League park makes the matchup a bit more enticing for Liriano who should have all but a free out at the bottom of the order. Furthermore, the Mariners are in the bottom third in the league in terms of walk rate against southpaws, just another little note that might make this matchup a bit easier for Franky. He is much more risky than Salazar, but might carry a similar level to Archer in a matchup where his opposition actually has a lower implied run total.
The White Sox have an implied run total of four runs, but their matchup with Kyle Hendricks ($21,300) should be one that is worth exploiting. Hendricks has pitched masterfully this season, rolling more than 50% groundballs, posting a 2.27 ERA and inducing more soft contact than hard contact. The ballpark and the extra hitter aren’t going to be particularly kind to Hendricks, but the White Sox bottom-six wRC+ against right-handers should allow for maneuvering through their lineup. You might not be paying up for a ton of strikeouts with Hendricks, but he might be the safest option on the board.