7/28 MLB DFS Picks: Another Mardi Gras with Nola
DailyRoto’s MLB Solo Shot Host, Logan Hitchcock, gets you headed in the right direction with his 7/28 MLB DFS Picks. Check out where his mind is at today when it comes to roster construction at FantasyDraft – where they put players first – Daily fantasy baseball on a level playing field. Check them out tonight. Now, on to the the picks for tonight’s action.
Where to focus?
On a short slate dominated by pitching, offense is hard to come by. The Texas Rangers draw a matchup in the heat against right-hander Yordano Ventura. The Rangers sport the slate’s highest implied run total at just over five runs and continue to be one of the most valuable DFS teams given their price tags. Ventura has been having his worst season as a pro, pitching to a 4.71 xFIP while seeing a huge decrease in his strikeout rate and increases in both his walk rate and hard contact percentage against. The Rangers present a ton of offensive value near the top of the order, starting with second basemen Jurickson Profar ($7,200) and working all the way up to all-star Ian Desmond ($9,000). The run scoring environment in Texas at this time of the year is nothing to shy away from and the matchup with Ventura screams potential.
Aside from the Texas Rangers, the Boston Red Sox draw a matchup with Jered Weaver. Weaver has been horrible this season, pitching to a 5.79 xFIP, while posting career lows in strikeout rates and GB%. His extreme flyball ways have crushed him so far as he’s allowed 1.85 HR/9 this season. Unfortunately for the Sox, this one is being played away from their home ballpark and the park shift is no joke. While Fenway Park actually played worse for left-handed homers last season, Angel Stadium ranked more than twenty spots below Fenway in terms of home runs for right-handed hitters. Despite the park and an implied run total under five, I don’t think you’ll see many shy away from the matchup that the Red Sox have been handed tonight. I don’t think you should either. Big Papi ($10,800) and Mookie ($10,800) are still holding down the fort well above $10,000, but the rest of the Red Sox complementary pieces are all accessible.
It’s been quite some time since I included the Minnesota Twins in any sort of analysis two days in a row, but their matchup with Ubaldo Jimenez makes them a part of the solution today. With an implied run total just under five and price tags mirroring those of the Texas Rangers, the Twins are simultaneously enticing and valuable. Miguel Sano ($8,400) is incredibly valuable given his power upside (career .233 ISO against RHP), but leadoff man Eduardo Nunez ($8,700) carries just as much upside due to his abilities to get on base and steal the others.
On the Bump…
You don’t have to look far to find pitching options for tonight’s slate. Jose Fernandez ($26,100) will take on a Matt Carpenter-less St. Louis Cardinals team with an implied run total of just three runs. Fernandez’ abilities are best described as “freakish,” as his 2.27 xFIP and 36.8% strikeout rate speak for themselves and frighten even the best hitters in baseball. He’ll be sitting at the top of everyone’s list today, but given his strikeout upside and the value surrounding the Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers offensively, it’s paramount to fit him into your lineups, especially in cash games.
Outside of Fernandez, you’ll have plenty of options to choose from. At the top, Johnny Cueto ($23,200) draws a matchup with a tough Nationals team, but a team tht’s receiving a horrifying negative park shift to San Francisco. With an implied run total of just 3.2 runs, Cueto is in line for what should be another solid outing, but given his price it’ll be difficult to pair him with Fernandez.
That’s where Aaron Nola ($16,400) comes in. Nola draws a matchup with an inept Braves offense that keeps the whole world spinning. The Braves are still ranked dead last in wRC+ against right-handers this season and they are strikeout prone enough (20%) to make testing the waters feel a little bit better. Nola has been excellent in his sophomore season as a Phillie, posting a 2.99 xFIP to go along with a strikeout rate just shy of ten hitters per nine innings. Furthermore, Nola has been great about limiting hard contact and nearly just as good at inducing soft contact as he sports only a three point difference in hard versus soft rates. If you’re playing cash games, I’d suggest pairing Fernandez and Nola and watching the money pile up at the end of the night.
Just because he shredded up a bunch of jerseys doesn’t mean Chris Sale ($21,200) isn’t playable. He’ll come off his “suspension” to face a Cubs team that has struggled offensively before bursting out with eight runs late in last night’s game. Sale has been a different sort of pitcher this season, pitching more efficiently while racking up less strikeouts than he’s expected to. That trend could continue tonight as the Cubs actually strikeout in the bottom ten of the league against southpaws all while posting the top number for wRC+ against lefties this season. There is no implied run total out yet, but I’d expect the Cubs flirt with the high-threes in their matchup with Sale, putting him in play but down at the bottom of this list.