8/4 MLB DFS Picks: How Many Manny’s is Too Many?
DailyRoto’s MLB Solo Shot Host, Logan Hitchcock, gets you headed in the right direction with his 8/4 MLB DFS Picks. Check out where his mind is at today when it comes to roster construction at FantasyDraft – where they put players first – Daily fantasy baseball on a level playing field. Check them out tonight. Now, on to the the picks for tonight’s action.
Where to focus?
Is it any surprise that on a shortened seven game slate our entire focus is on Coors Field? Probably not. At Coors today, right-handers Kenta Maeda and Tyler Chatwood square off against a pair of opposing teams with implied run totals above five runs. Maeda has been quite sharp in his first season in America, pitching to a 3.72 xFIP and allowing less than a home run per nine innings. Chatwood has been less impressive this season, striking out less than six hitters per nine while pitching to a 4.53 xFIP. While the Dodgers haven’t been the best team against right-handed starters this year, the positive park shift in their favor and a few valuable assets make them the team to own. It’ll be difficult to pay up for more than one of Corey Seager ($10,800), Justin Turner ($10,200) or Adrian Gonzalez ($9,900) but any of the trio is in play. For the Rockies, David Dahl ($7,600) still remains underpriced relative to his lineup spot and the park and even more value can be found with Daniel Descalso ($6,600) or Nick Hundley ($6,600) to allow you to pay up at the top.
Outside of Coors Field your attention should turn to the Baltimore Orioles. The O’s have the second highest implied run total on the slate and draw a matchup at home with right-hander AJ Griffin. Griffin’s season has been slowed by injury, but in his time on the mound he hasn’t been that impressive. He’s pitched to a 5.03 xFIP while walking nearly four hitters per nine and allowing 1.33 per nine as well. His extreme flyball nature and absurd hard hit rate (39%) should perk up the ears of the opposing hitters tonight. Manny Machado ($8,400), Chris Davis ($8,400) and Mark Trumbo ($8,400) make for a powerful trio in both cash games and GPPs on FantasyDraft tonight. Don’t be surprised if more than one of them finds the bleachers.
The New York Yankees have never had much firepower and with the subtraction of Carlos Beltran they are even a weaker offense. That won’t stop me from at least mentioning them against Bartolo Colon in their home stadium tonight. Colon is somehow still defying the odds, but this season he’s allowed well over one home run per nine innings and is allowing nearly 37% hard contact to opposing hitters. The Yankees are just another offense that is filled with accessible and valuable price tags and hitters such as Jacoby Ellsbury ($7,800), Brett Gardner ($8,700), Mark Texieria ($6,000) and Brian McCann ($7,200) should all be on your radar. Dropping in one or two of these players will allow you to pay up for Coors Field bats.
Last but not least the Pittsburgh Pirates draw a matchup with Tyrell Jenkins and the Atlanta Braves. The Bucs will be without a benched Andrew McCutchen but that shouldn’t matter against a pitcher that has built a 6.19 xFIP while walking more than six hitters per nine innings.The top four hitters in the Buccos lineup should be in line for plenty of at-bats against a mediocre arm and their price tags match those of the Yankees, making them very valuable assets tonight. You’ll have to pay for Starling Marte ($10,400) or Gregory Polanco ($10,000) but John Jaso ($5,200) and Jung-Ho Kang ($7,800) represent great values.
On the Bump…
It is a sad night of starting pitchers. The cream of the crop is newly acquired Boston Red Sox pitcher, Drew Pomeranz ($18,400). Pomeranz has been excellent as a whole this season, pitching to a 3.68 xFIP while striking out more than ten hitters per nine innings. The Mariners are no joke offense though, and their abilities against left-handed pitchers don’t exactly instill a ton of confidence into selecting a southpaw against them. They are middle of the pack in terms of strikeout percentage against lefties and they’ve built up the 15th best wRC+ in the league against them this season. Neither of those numbers are huge causes for concern, but neither are the type of standing you’d want to see when choosing your top starting pitcher for the night.
Outside of Pomeranz things get dicey. The highest priced pitcher on the slate is left-hander J.A. Happ who draws a matchup with the dangerous Houston Astros. In Happ’s favor though, the Astros have just the 23rd best wRC+ against southpaws and they strike out at a rate of 23.5% against lefties this season. Also, the Astros are tied for the lowest implied run total on the slate at just below four runs (3.9). Happ is nothing special, posting a 4.11 xFIP and a strikeout rate of just 20.9%, but we don’t have many other options tonight. If you side with Vegas, you’ll pay up for his services.
It hurts me to try and recommend Mike Fiers ($12,900) against the Toronto Blue Jays or Nathan Eovaldi ($14,400) against the New York Mets, but there are really no other options tonight. The benefits to using two arms that are priced this lowly is that they allow you to roster any offensive player that you wish. Furthermore, given the large uncertainties at starting pitcher tonight, you’re inheriting just as much risk paying for Happ against the Astros than you are by embracing a much cheaper starting pitcher. Eovaldi gets the tiebreaker if you’re looking for more strikeouts and he’ll also take the nod if you’re simply looking at implied run total, but neither arm is a true winner tonight.