Welcome to April 10 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for April 10 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS | HITTER SPLITS | PITCHER SPLITS | SORTABLE STATS | PITCHER TRENDS | LINEUPS | LEADERS
April 10 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
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Range of Outcome Projections
April 10 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For the second straight slate we combine Coors Field with elite starting pitching. This slate is led by Chris Sale (BOS) followed by Stephen Strasburg (WAS), Jacob deGrom (NYM), and Carlos Martinez (STL). All three project above 20 DK points, with Sale separating himself a bit from Strasburg/deGrom and Martinez lagging a bit behind those two.
Sale leads our projections. While it’s a tough matchup from a run prevention standpoint given that Fenway park is favorable to RHBs, which aligns well for Judge/Stanton/Sanchez, this lineup will strike out quite a bit. Sale has our highest K projection on the slate, and the cooler temperatures should help as well.
Stephen Strasburg (WAS) is the largest Vegas favorite of the bunch, with a high -225 line and just a 3 IRTA. Strasburg’s SwStr rate took a big leap forward last year to 12.9, and it sits at 13.6 through two starts this year. The only concern with Atlanta is they get very lefty heavy, but Scherzer certainly had no problems with that last night.
Jacob deGrom (NYM) has the same favorable matchup as Syndergaard last night. We’re actually a bit higher on deGrom than Thor, simply because we project him to work deeper into games.
Martinez faces a Milwaukee team at home in what’s a really good matchup for him since the Brewers get more righty heavy with Christian Yelich out of the lineup. On the road in Miller Park, Martinez just struck out 10 Brewers over 8.1 scoreless innings. He has a similar ceiling tonight and actually does compete with the above names.
As far as roster construction goes, we like the Strasburg/deGrom tier on FD. While Sale is still the top raw projected SP, this is a chance to get two elite SPs with a better overall context for meaningfully cheaper price tags.
On DK, deGrom is the most expensive SP, so we’d strike him from cash game consideration. Past him, you can really anchor with any of the other top three SPs at varying price points, depending on what you want to do with hitting/second SP spot.
If you went with Martinez, it’s possible you could pair him up with Dallas Keuchel (HOU), who is off to a rough start from a surface stat standpoint (7 Ks, 5 BBs), but the peripherals look good: -2.7 Hard-Soft%, pretty similar velocity and pitch mix to career levels. For a bit more K upside in this salary range, you could use Aaron Nola (PHI), who has just a 3.4 IRTA. The biggest issue with Nola is upside in terms of innings pitched and batters faced, as Gabe Kapler wants to simultaneously keep him fresh all season and is aware of poorer splits the third time through the order.
If you go a bit more expensive with Strasburg or Sale, you likely have to go cheaper in that SP2 spot. Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD) is another pitcher who is susceptible to a quick hook, but looks very safe on the surface – getting an Oakland team that loses the DH at home in a pitcher friendly park. Ryu is a -140 favorite with just a 3.5 IRTA. Oakland has decent pop but projects for a poor team wOBA.
An interesting, but very risky second SP for tournaments is Caleb Smith (MIA). Smith has had an erratic start to the season, walking more batters than innings pitched. However, he’s also gotten a lot of strikeouts thanks to a high 15.6 SwStr rate. The potential for cheap Ks is appealing. We have the Mets with four above average bats versus LHP, but five very below average ones when you include the pitcher.
Since the mid-tier values are a bit less clear on this slate than yesterday’s, you can get more creative in tournaments and take more contrarian stances. Some options we like a bit more than our projections are:
–Sean Manaea (OAK) (good SwStr and F-Strike rates)
–Aaron Sanchez (TOR) (throwing changeup more and getting a 27% whiff rate on it; BAL is becoming the team you can take a chance against almost daily in GPP)
–Tyler Skaggs (LAA) (encouraging first start and Rangers will swing and miss a lot against LHP, should go almost unowned)
–Patrick Corbin (ARI) (probably overpriced in a more contact oriented matchup but absurd 1.18 xFIP through two starts with amazing peripherals, including a 17.8 SwStr rate)
A similar slate as yesterday as far as roster construction goes, therefore we’re trying to save as much as we can at the catcher position. That puts Robinson Chirinos (TEX) back in the public eye where he’ll draw the platoon edge on Tyler Skaggs. We’ve mentioned Chirinos power potential against RHP, but he’s actually been better overall against southpaws posting a .398 wOBA and .235 ISO against them since 2015 (small sample size though). At $2,900 on DraftKings, he opens up a lot of cap space.
There is a big drop in value, and an increase in price as you move beyond Chirinos. Buster Posey (SF), Chris Iannetta (COL), and Austin Hedges (SD) will all have the platoon edge on Tuesday – and Iannetta and Hedges get the Coors Field boost. The latter grouping will bring you the best potential upside in the highest total on the day.
Posey is the best skilled player in this grouping, but at $3,800 he’ll cost you nearly $1,000 more than Chirinos and he comes with a much less desirable park and matchup. Nevertheless, his skillset against LHP remains (though he doesn’t carry much upside – .180 ISO since 2015).
Carlos Santana (PHI) is one of the top values at the first base position on both sites. Santana is getting a friendly park, great lineup spot and a matchup with Homer Bailey. Injuries have derailed Bailey’s career and he’s coming off a season with a 6.43 ERA. We’ll get Santana from the left-side, where he’s posted 100 points better in ISO the last three seasons.
Joey Gallo (TEX) has seen his price slowly rise on FanDuel, but he remains a top value there. We’re not super interested in going that way in cash games given the left-on-left matchup – but he remains a tournament play. Ian Desmond (COL) is only first base eligible on FanDuel, but he’s only $100 more expensive than Santana. We noted last night that he isn’t particularly frightening against LHP, but he found a way to homer off of Clayton Richard and will get another southpaw in Lucchesi.
On both FanDuel and DraftKings you can turn to the cheap bats of Kendrys Morales (TOR) and Lucas Duda (KC) to save some cap room. Morales will get the better park and friendlier matchup than Duda as he draws Andrew Cashner in Baltimore. Much like Santana, we’ll get Morales from his more power friendly side of the plate, a handedness that Cashner has allowed a .190 ISO to since 2015. Albert Pujols (LAA) fills a similar role on DraftKings where he’s $3,200. Martin Perez has posted three straight seasons of under 15% K% and two consecutive of at least 30% Hard% allowed. Pujols gets a big park shift and the platoon edge in his favor.
We can turn back the discussion on D.J. LeMahieu (COL) who once again is the top projected scorer, and value at the second base position. The price tag is right where you’d expect to be, and although we’re not in love with LeMahieu’s upside, he brings a competent bat to the top of the order of a team total nearing 6. While we don’t consider him a necessary spend, he’s ultimately an affordable piece of this Rockies team.
Zack Cozart (LAA) follows LeMahieu. He gets a park upgrade traveling to Texas where he’ll grab the platoon edge on the aforementioned Martin Perez. Cozart is another member of the Sneaky Platoon Monster Club, posting a .377 wOBA and .259 ISO against LHP since 2015. The price tag is close enough to LeMahieu’s on both sites that you can decide to play one or the other but if you need a few hundred in savings, Cozart is your guy.
Whit Merrifield (KC) remains absurdly cheap on both sites. We’ve talked about his hidden upside potential and although the park and matchup are not in his favor, he’ll go a long way to enabling you to bolster the rest of your lineup. Dodgers teammates Kike Hernandez (LAD) and Chris Taylor (LAD) split their 2B eligibility between FanDuel and DraftKings respectively. Sean Manaea is no slouch, and the park environment is not particularly enticing, but especially in the case of Hernandez the cheap tag and platoon numbers warrant consideration (.391 wOBA, .269 ISO against LHP since 2015).
Yangervis Solarte (TOR) also has 2B eligibility on DraftKings. Carlos Asuaje (SD) has leadoff each of the past two days, but we don’t expect he’ll find himself there against a left-hander. Should he, he’d make for a compelling value.
Nolan Arenado (COL) is again the headliner at the position. The price tag remains pretty stable, and the matchup is similarly appealing. Much like last night, we’re pushing to get him into cash games.
Adrian Beltre (TEX) will let you be different on both sites, as he’s the second best value available. He comes with a much cheaper price tag and will get the platoon advantage on left-hander Tyler Skaggs. Projection systems expect a step forward for the left-hander, but he still allows a fair bit of hard contact and will be taking a big negative park shift moving to Texas. Beltre has posted gaudy numbers against left-handers in the past three seasons despite his age as well (.415 wOBA, .248 ISO).
Josh Donaldson (TOR) and Alex Bregman (HOU) fill a middle tier in between Arenado and Beltre. Unfortunately though – the price tag is somewhat handcuffing. It doesn’t allow for enough flexibility in cap space, but also doesn’t come near the same raw projected output (more than 2 full points behind Arenado). We’re looking to these two in tournaments.
Todd Frazier (NYM) is an odd mix of even cheaper than the aforementioned duo, but a bit more expensive than Beltre. Frazier has been a monster against LHP – posting a .320 ISO against southpaws since 2015. The park is not nearly as friendly as the others posted here is flyball oriented and projects at more than 1.25 HR/9 via ZiPS and Steamer.
AND SO IT REMAINS THE PAT VALAIKA (COL) SHOW! Sort of. Valaika, teammate Trevor Story (COL), and Elvis Andrus (TEX) are the three top value shortstops on the slate.
Valaika and Story have the same context once again tonight, facing a left-hander in their cozy Coors Field home. Both guys have wondrous splits against LHP – but we want to correctly note Story’s .413 wOBA and .321 ISO against them since 2015. Valaika will come with a much worse lineup spot, but more than serviceable splits and an very affordable price tag.
If the middle is what you prefer, Andrus gives you just that. Of the group, he provides a compelling upside (HR/SB potential) and a middling price tag. At $3,500 on FanDuel he’s not making our early optimals – but the opposite is true on DraftKings where he’s only $700 more than Valaika at $3,600.
Once again Jean Segura (SEA) and Marcus Semien (OAK) have competing value rankings and price tags on both sites. Semien will get the platoon edge on Ryu, a handedness he’s battered to the tune of a .202 ISO since 2015. Segura comes with a mix of speed and power potential as well – but his power is much less prodigious against LHP (.118 ISO).
It’s Mike Trout (LAA) and then a whole host of Padres outfielders at the top of the rankings today. Trout is the best player in the world, gets a park shift in his favor, the platoon edge and will face Martin Perez. Much like last night, it’s reasonable to want to pursue his services in cash games and tournaments and with the potential value available it’s a legitimate option.
Hunter Renfroe (SD), Jose Pirela (SD), and Manuel Margot (SD) make up the Padres trio that was unseen in last night’s value rankings, but flood the top tonight. Opposing left-hander Tyler Anderson actually outperformed his ERA last season but he did struggle with RHB, allowing a .192 ISO. Renfroe has the biggest power upside (.365 ISO against LHP in just over 100 career PA) – but Margot claims the Lite Throne of event upside for the trio. He claimed 30 total HR+SB last season and projects similarly again. The entire group is sub-$4,000 on DraftKings and sub-$3,000 on FanDuel making them compelling cash game plays or a tournament stack.
Curtis Granderson (TOR) is a top-2 value for all hitters on the entire slate. He’s lead off in two of the last three games against right-handers, and we’re projecting he’ll be back there again as we’ve sensed a demotion of sorts for Devon Travis. We previously mentioned Cashner’s left-hander power problems and Granderson is no stranger to power potential (.234 ISO against RHP since 2015). At $2,400 on FanDuel and $3,300 on DraftKings he’s a great way to get exposure to a good park, all while simultaneously not putting all your eggs in the Coors Field basket.
Dexter Fowler (STL) and Tommy Pham (STL) remain oddly cheap on DraftKings. Fitting into the same tier as Granderson, they will both grab the platoon edge on left-hander Brent? Suter. Fowler is less powerful from the right-side but that’s his better wOBA side. Randal Grichuk (TOR) is down near the minimum on FanDuel at $2,200. His problem is the strikeout, but luckily Cashner projects at less than six strikeouts per nine innings.
Charlie Blackmon (COL) and Bryce Harper (WSH) both rate well as values and raw totals. It’s tough though to warrant choosing them over the necessary value that opens up the arms and other less valuable positions on the slate. Nevertheless, both need to be considered for tournaments with mild (stronger consideration to Blackmon) consideration in cash games.
1) Colorado Rockies
Coors Coors’ed last night, unfortunately it was largely the wrong guys, at least for cash games (thanks a lot Arenado!). It was surprising to see the ownership on the ancillary Coors guys relatively tame in tournaments, so we don’t mind utilizing the chalkiest stack again. Lucchesi may have more swing and miss stuff than Richard, but allows more hard-hit, aerial contact.
2) San Diego Padres
3) Los Angeles Angels
For the second straight slate, the Padres are pretty affordable on FD. The average cost of their lineup is sub-$3k, which is not true of any of the other stacks in our top three tiers. Ownership probably is higher on them tonight after success last night, but it wasn’t nearly as high as we anticipated last night in low stakes, large field GPPs.
The Angels are once again in a phenomenal spot, getting the big park shift in Texas and facing Martin Perez, who has a career 4.45 xFIP (4.70, 4.77 last two seasons). Perez has a horrible K-BB% but will keep the ball on the ground.
4) Toronto Blue Jays
5) Philadelphia Phillies
6) Houston Astros
7) Washington Nationals
We love picking on Andrew Cashner and seem to love the Blue Jays as well, so what could go wrong? Cashner had a horrendous 5.30 xFIP but got a ton of luck in the BABIP and HR/FB rate departments. He’s headed for some serious regression this season.
The Phillies are a pretty affordable stack, outside of Rhys Hoskins, who offers tremendous power upside. They’ll face Homer Bailey who has a ZiPS projected 5.51 ERA.
8) Texas Rangers
9) Los Angeles Dodgers
10) New York Mets
The Rangers represent one of the cheapest stacks across both sites and are a great way to pair upside with top-tier starting pitching. Tyler Skaggs has looked good through two starts, but it’s a negative park shift for the lefty who was quite homer prone last season – 1.38 per 9.
There’s a large drop off after the fourth tier of stacks, so we’d likely try and keep tournament stacks to the ranked stacks on this slate.