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April 10 MLB DFS: Break the Glasnow
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Welcome to April 10 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for April 6 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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April 10 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
03:05 Starting Pitcher
11:04 Catcher
13:06 First Base
17:03 Second Base
19:19 Third Base
22:02 Shortstop
24:21 Outfield
29:07 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

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April 10 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

On a short slate, the clear top options are Jon Lester (CHC) and Jacob deGrom (NYM). We don’t have a gme total yet for Lester (due to wind impact in Wrigley they come out only the day of). However, it’s a damp, cool night so we’re not expecting anything high. Lester faces a Dodgers team that does have some decent platoon bats (added Gutierrez and Forsythe), but they finished 2016 ranked dead last in wRC+ against southpaws. Lester is generally a slow starter, and his debut was a mixed bag – generating plenty of Ks but also walking batters and allowing fly balls.

On DK the choice between lester and deGrom is made for us because deGrom is meaningfully cheaper. On FD where they are priced similarly, we give a slight nod to deGrom. While MLB has changed the way they record velocity, making comparisons more difficult, deGrom was sitting at 94.5 in the opener and reportedly had good velocity all Spring. If he’s back health wise to where he was two years ago, watch out. deGrom posted a 2.70 FIP and high 27.3 K% in 2015.

The story of this slate though is Coors Field. No game has a total greater than 8.5 – except Coors sitting there at 11 on a small slate. To get as much exposure there as possible, you’ll need some value with your SPs. Enter Tyler Glasnow (PIT). The rookie pitcher is wild but has plenty of K upside. Both ZiPS and Steamer expected around 5 BB per 9 IP but also over 10 K and a sub-3.75 ERA. It’s the perfect risk to take on this slate. There’s not much opportunity cost in terms of other value plays, and his cap relief gets you Coors Field exposure, which mitigates some of the risk in using Glasnow anyways. On top of that it’s actually a good spot as well – at home in PIT against a subpar Reds offense. Glasnow is the best second SP to pair with deGrom on DK, and on FD, even though you only get one SP, Glasnow is our top option given a silly punt price tag of $4,400.

In tournaments, you could fade Glasnow on FD as the ownership will be very high and his wildness will lead to some bad, short outings – then just hope you pair the correct non-Coors stack with either Lester or deGrom.

While the totals aren’t high outside of Coors Field, there’s still a surprising lack of value among SPs outside of the top options and Glasnow. If pivoting you can take chances on any of Tanner Roark (WAS), Brandon Finnegan (CIN), or Jerad Eickhoff (PHI).

Catcher

There is not much to love at the catcher position on Monday, therefore we’re more concerned with cost savings and macro environment. Both Tony Wolters (COL) and Austin Hedges (SD) will get the luxury of Coors Field, yet neither will come with a great lineup spot. Neither is incredibly valuable on the sites, but in the game with the highest expected total they are options at a shallow position.

Francisco Cervelli (PIT) offers tangible value in the way of his salary ($2,200 on FD, $3,000 on DK) but he doesn’t hold an elite game environment. Still his matchup with southpaw Brandon Finnegan puts him in the conversation as he’s a .369 wOBA against left-handers since 2014.

Willson Contreras (CHC) will hold the platoon edge against Alex Wood. He carries a price tag similar to Wolters and Hedges, but will lack the elite game environment. Nevertheless, he’s posted a .366 wOBA and .187 ISO in a small sample size against left-handers.

Kyle Schwarber (CHC) holds multi-positional eligibility on DK that makes him catcher eligible. He won’t hold the platoon edge and is priced into a range that would handicap our ability to roster Coors, but he makes for an interesting tournament pivot.

First Base

Our top projected first baseman is Wil Myers (SD). Myers will take advantage of the massive park shift to Coors Field and draws a matchup with right-hander Tyler Chatwood. Chatwood has been competent against right-handers, but Myers has posted a .174 ISO against right-handers since 2014. He’s in the upper tier alongside Anthony Rizzo (CHC) on DK, but on FanDuel he’s just $4,000 and is viable in all formats.

Lucas Duda (NYM) has dropped in the lineup since the Mets order has added depth, but he still rates as our second most valuable first basemen on the slate. He draws a matchup with right-hander Jerad Eickhoff who has struggled to get out lefties. Eickhoff has allowed a .353 wOBA and .228 ISO to left-handers in his short career. At just $3,600 on DK he’s a secondary cash game value.

Mark Reynolds (COL) will run out of the other dugout at Coors Field. His price is difficult to swallow for cash games, particularly on DK, but he makes for a perfect complement in Rockies, or Coors stacks.

Both Anthony Rizzo (CHC) and Joey Votto (CIN) lag behind in terms of game environment, but both should be in consideration as tournament pivots.

Second Base

The value at second base swings wildly depending on the site you’re looking at. On FanDuel, it’s incredibly easy to fit either of Ryan Schimpf (SD) or DJ LeMahieu (COL). These two will square off in the best offensive environment of the day and are the preferred cash game options on the site. Schimpf has displayed great power numbers against right-handers (.303 ISO) in a short career, he is the preferred GPP play but is certainly cash viable. LeMahieu doesn’t possess the power upside, but will help set the table well for a team holding an implied run total of 6.2 runs.

On DraftKings, both Schimpf and LeMahieu are priced in the highest tier and are more difficult to work into cash games (though you can make a case for either and make it work). Instead, Neil Walker (NYM) is the most valuable 2B on DraftKings. Walker will grab the same edge as Duda and since 2014 he’s posted a .350 wOBA and .189 ISO against right-handers. At just $3,600 he lets you prioritize some of the other, more high upside, high floor plays from Coors.

Logan Forsythe (LAD) will draw a difficult matchup with Jon Lester, but he should be back in the leadoff spot and will hold the platoon edge. He’s posted a .361 wOBA and .230 ISO against left-handers since 2014. He’s just $3,500 on DK. Addison Russell (CHC) holds 2B eligibility on DK and will hold the platoon edge as well.

Third Base

Nolan Arenado (COL) is the top option at the third base position today. A matchup with Trevor Cahill frightens no one, and Arenado has done major damage against right-handers since 2014 (.275 ISO). It’s easy enough to make him fit on both sites and he is the preferred cash game option.

Kris Bryant (CHC) is only edge by Arenado though because of the game environment. Bryant will hold the platoon edge (career .398 wOBA and .278 ISO against LHP) on Alex Wood at home in Wrigley Field. Though our preference is to build through Arenado, Bryant makes for a compelling tournament pivot.

The other side of Coors Field holds Yangervis Solarte (SD). Solarte comes with a much cheaper price than Arenado and will get you cheaper exposure to Coors Field. He comes with a lot of opportunity cost at the position, but if you’re stacking Coors and looking for lower ownership, he will help you achieve it. Jose Reyes (NYM) is a cheaper alternative at the position and a way to add to potential left-handed Mets stacks. He’s 3B eligible on both sites, and also holds SS eligibility on DK.

Shortstop

Trevor Story (COL) is the best way to make use of any extra FD salary, but he’s a bit more difficult to fit on DraftKings. Still though, he rates as the top projected shortstop in our model and is a perfectly fine spend in cash games and tournaments. It hasn’t been said in a few sections, but reminder that the Rockies implied team run total is 6.2.

After Story, the position presents an opportunity to find immense value. Erick Aybar (SD) is just $2,700 and will play on the other side of the Coors Field game. He doesn’t come with a great lineup spot or skills (.301 wOBA against RHP since 2014) but he’s extremely cheap exposure to Coors Field. Jordy Mercer (PIT) will hold the platoon edge against Brandon Finnegan and should move to the leadoff spot – he’s just $3,000 on DK and $2,100 on FD. Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) and Jose Reyes (NYM) both hold SS eligibility on DK and will hold the platoon edge on Eickhoff. And Addison Russell (CHC) will enjoy the platoon edge on Alex Wood. Russell has posted a .194 ISO against lefties in a short career. There are merits to using any of these as potential cap savers on DraftKings, but our preference is to focus on one of Aybar or Mercer for cash games.

Outfield

Charlie Blackmon (COL) and Carlos Gonzalez (COL) stand head and shoulders above the rest of the outfield options on this slate. Both have posted greater than a .370 wOBA and .200 ISO since 2014 against right-handed pitchers and will now get a matchup with Trevor Cahill. They are easy spends on both sites as two of your three cash game outfielders.

After the pair, there are a handful of options that stand out in terms of value. Gerardo Parra (COL), Manuel Margot (SD), Travis Jankowski (SD) and Wil Myers (SD) (DK only) all will get the benefit of the best game environment on the slate. Margot, Jankowski and Myers will give you exposure to the road team at Coors but they are by no means necessities in cash games, particularly on DraftKings.

If you’re looking for value outside of Coors Field, Jay Bruce (NYM), Curtis Granderson (NYM), and Billy Hamilton (CIN) fit the bill. Bruce and Granderson will both swing from the left side against Eickhoff and they each hold ISOs greater than .200 against right-handers since 2014. Hamilton has seen his price dip to just $3,800 on DraftKings and he’ll move to the road to face a wild right-hander in Tyler Glasnow. Hamilton can realize his upside with one trip to the basepaths and Glasnow has a ZiPS projection of 5.08 BB/9 this season.

Starling Marte (PIT), Andrew McCutchen (PIT), Bryce Harper (WSH), and Yoenis Cespedes (NYM) are all plus/neutral values on both sites and warrant consideration in tournaments as one-offs or contrarian pivots.

Kris Bryant (CHC) holds OF eligibility on DK, making it possible to roster him alongside Arenado in tournaments.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Colorado Rockies

6.2 IRT for the Rockies is the highest on the slate by about 1.5 (about 2 more than any non-Coors team). You need to mini-stack them in cash games on a short slate.

Tier Two

2) San Diego Padres

3) New York Mets

The Padres are an excellent cash game mini-stack, but if you’re fading one side of Coors in tournaments, it should be them. The natural pivot off of them is to a Mets team that hits RHP really well and with HR power, giving you the ceiling you need to combat the more popular Coors stacks in tournaments.

Additional Tournament Stacks

-Washington Nationals: Just a really good lineup against RHP – it’s the same methodology behind the Mets stack, but the Mets stack rates better overall.

-Pittsburgh Pirates: This stack, depending how you attack it, is cheap enough to use with more expensive pitching or alongside Coors. Either way it should help you come up with a highly leveraged lineup. Andrew McCutchen‘s offense took a nose dive last season, but he historically crushes LHP alongside teammate Starling Marte, who offers a ton of power/speed upside. Breakout candidate Gregory Polanco will come with virtually no ownership in a L/L matchup, and the rest of the lineup is very cheap, starting with Jordy Mercer at SS out of the leadoff spot.