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April 13 MLB DFS: CarGo With A Side Of Carrasco Sauce
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April 13 MLB DFS: CarGo With A Side Of Carrasco Sauce

TODAY’S SHOW OUTLINE

00:39 Recapping An Odd Tuesday Slate
03:13 Starting Pitchers
12:03 Catchers
14:21 First Base
16:33 Second Base
18:22 Shortstop
20:03 Third Base
22:27 Outfield
26:54 Cash Game Roster Construction
28:08 Stacks

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April 13 MLB DFS Pro-Tip

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Tier One

1) Carlos Carrasco (CLE)

2) Stephen Strasburg (WAS)

Tier Two

3) Drew Smyly (TB)

4) John Lackey (CHC)

Tier Three

5) Yordano Ventura (KC)

6) Mike Leake (STL)

7) Jerad Eickhoff (PHI)

8) Alex Wood (LAD)

Tier Three

9) Carlos Rodon (CHW)

10) Michael Pineda (NYY)

11) Colin Rea (SD)

Carlos Carrasco (CLE) heads our pitching rankings on the night as he showed his 2014 season wasn’t a fluke by upping his K rate to 29.6 percent last season, which combined with plus control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground led to a 2.66 xFIP for the second straight season. He gets a plus park shift facing a Rays lineup we aren’t afraid of and is the smart investment on FanDuel cash games where he’s $1,000 cheaper than Stephen Strasburg (WAS). However, Strasburg is $600 cheaper on DraftKings, making the two similar values on that particular site. The Atlanta lineup won’t swing and miss much but is very weak overall, leaving Strasburg as the largest favorite on the day and facing the team with the lowest run total.

There’s quite a sizable drop off after the first tier. Drew Smyly (TB) gives you enough strikeout upside to be considered a secondary value on FanDuel if you want to stretch for another Coors Field bat in your lineup. Smyly is very fly ball risky, but his park helps to mitigate that risk, and he will strike out more than a better an inning over the course of the season. John Lackey (CHC) is a large favorite, but we prefer him in tournaments. We’re waiting to see where the run total on that game settles in.

In the third tier, we like Mike Leake (STL) (safe as a large home favorite with a low run total facing a heavily right handed Brewers team) and Alex Wood (LAD) (meaningful price discount as a second pitcher on DraftKings) are cash viable while we really like both Yordano Ventura (KC) (raw skills upside and very favorable umpire) and Jerad Eickhoff (PHI) (SD is terrible offensively; 24.1 K percentage in limited action last season) in tournaments.

Carlos Rodon (CHW) is difficult to evaluate. His talent and dominant first start are appealing, as is the park, but the plethora of power RHBs for Minnesota and a terrible umpire for pitchers scared us off a little.

Catchers

1) Buster Posey (SF)

2) Matt Wieters (BAL

3) Jonathan Lucroy (MIL)

4) Nick Hundley (COL)

5) Francisco Cervelli (PIT)

Once again, the gap between Buster Posey (SF) (fourth in our model) and the next best catcher (Matt Wieters, outside our top 100) is massive. While the price tag is excessive, forcing exposure to Posey in cash games is smart. Similar to yesterday, though, it’s easy to save money at the position if not using Posey since he represents the only opportunity cost at the position. Matt Wieters (BAL) gets you exposure to a high expected scoring game as Joe Kelly allows a lot of hard contact (35.5 percent last year, 58.3 in his first start). Nick Hundley (COL) provides you with relatively cheap exposure to Coors Field. Welington Castillo (ARI) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (DET) are tournament options as each has okay power upside with the platoon edge and a likely top six lineup spot.

First Base Rankings

1) Anthony Rizzo (CHC)

2) Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)

3) Chris Davis (BAL)

4) Brandon Belt (SF)

5) David Ortiz (BOS)

While Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) obliterated LHP, Anthony Rizzo (CHC) edges him out in our model as we view Alfredo Simon as the worse starting pitcher, the Reds bullpens as very bad, and the Cubs lineup as more likely to score more runs. Both are better used in tournaments as the 3-5 hitters have basically identical rankings in our model (top 10 overall). Chris Davis (BAL) has massive power (.331 ISO against RHP since 2013), which meshes well with the aforementioned hard hit contact Joe Kelly allows. Brandon Belt (SF) gives you exposure to a team with a whopping total of six runs. David Ortiz (BOS) faces the volatile Ubaldo Jimenez who has allowed 1.17 HR/9 to LHBs since 2011. If going the value route at the position, John Jaso (PIT) (excellent lead off man against RHP) is a smart choice on FanDuel while Alex Rodriguez (NYY) is too cheap industry wide (but only has 1B eligibility on DraftKings). Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) gets caught in no man’s land a little bit. He’s in a worse park than the 3-5 ranked first basemen, but Rubby da la Rosa has been so horrific against LHBs (.388 wOBA since 2013) that he’s still viable in all formats.

Second Base Rankings

1) Joe Panik (SF)

2) Ben Zobrist (CHC)

3) Jose Altuve (HOU)

4) Brian Dozier (MIN)

5) Cory Spangenberg (SD)

Joe Panik (SF) pretty clearly tops our second base rankings and is inside our Top 20 overall hitters. Jordan Lyles struggles against LHBs (.354 wOBA) and Panik gets a monster park shift while hitting second on the team with the highest implied run total on the slate (5.8 runs). Panik is priced appropriately on both sites, so the search for value will once again lead you to cheap speed in favorable lineup spots, unfortunately on inept offenses. Cory Spangenberg (SD) is the solution once again on DraftKings while Cesar Hernandez (PHI) is cheap on both sites.

Shortstop Rankings

1) Carlos Correa (HOU)

2) Corey Seager (LAD)

3) Trevor Story (COL)

4) Xander Bogaerts (BOS)

5) Alcides Escobar (KC)

Carlos Correa (HOU) and Trevor Story (COL) are once again near the top of our rankings with strong lineup spots in high powered offenses. Corey Seager (LAD) splits them thanks to a great skill set but also a really favorable matchup. Rubby de la Rosa has allowed a .388 wOBA, 32.3 hard hit rate, and 1.47 HR/9 to LHBs since 2013. There is a huge drop-off in our model rankings after the first three, but lineup construction will likely encourage punting once again. Alcides Escobar (KC) remains incredibly cheap on FanDuel and is our primary target while DraftKings is a bit more difficult to find value outside of Seager’s slightly discounted price tag.

Third Base Rankings

1) Manny Machado (BAL)

2) Nolan Arenado (COL)

3) Miguel Sano (MIN) – where eligible

4) Kris Bryant (CHC)

5) Alex Rodriguez (NYY)

6) Josh Donaldson (TOR)

7) Todd Frazier (CHW)

8) Matt Carpenter (STL)

9) Trevor Plouffe (MIN)

10) Maikel Franco (PHI)

Alex Rodriguez (NYY) stands out as one of the better industry wide value plays at third base. He’s facing J.A. Happ who has held RHBs to a .317 wOBA since 2013 but allowed a 33.6 percent hard hit rate. Rodriguez gets a nice park shift in his favor in Toronto and ranks inside our Top 35 hitters overall. The next best values at the position are with the Twins. Miguel Sano (MIN) is a bit more volatile than Rodriguez because he’s facing a pitcher with better raw stuff and he carries a hefty strikeout rate but he ranks ahead of Rodriguez in our model. Carlos Rodon allowed a .348 wOBA and 31.3 hard hit rate to RHBs in his rookie season. He has the skills to improve but the Twins RHBs pose a threat. Trevor Plouffe (MIN) is the other Minnesota value with a career .353 wOBA and .195 ISO against LHP.

Outfield Rankings

1) Bryce Harper (WAS)

2) Carlos Gonzalez (COL)

3) Denard Span (SF)

4) Charlie Blackmon (COL)

5) Hunter Pence (SF)

6) Jason Heyward (CHC)

7) Miguel Sano (MIN) – where OF eligible

8) Joase Bautista (TOR)

9) Andrew McCutchen (PIT)

10) Mookie Betts (BOS)

11) Starling Marte (PIT)

12) Lorenzo Cain (KC)

13) George Springer (HOU)

14) Justin Upton (DET)

15) Dexter Fowler (CHC)

16) Gerardo Parra (COL)

Once again our Top 10 hitters is loaded with outfielders. We have five outfielders in the Top 10 and five more in the 10-20 range. Bryce Harper (WAS) continues to outpace Coors Field as the Braves throw out weak RHP after weak RHP. Matt Wisler allowed a .422 wOBA and 1.93 HR/9 to the 250 LHBs he faced in his rookie season. We’d still emphasize Coors Field outfielders over Harper in cash games, but he remains a phenomenal tournament play with ownership likely gravitating towards Coors. The two pitchers in Colorado have each been vulnerable to LHBs in recent years. Jake Peavy has allowed a 32 percent hard hit rate to lefties while Jordan Lyles has allowed a .354 wOBA to LHBs. Carlos Gonzalez (COL) remains our primary target with a price tag similar to the other Coors Field outfielders but a fairly wide gap in our model between him and the next best options. Denard Span (SF) and Charlie Blackmon (COL) are essentially equals in our model with Hunter Pence (SF) a bit behind. The landscape for Wednesday’s slate is a bit stars-and-scrubs and the cheap plays vary by site. Cardinals’ outfielders are cheap on both sites with Randall Grichuk (STL), Matt Holliday (STL) and Jeremy Hazelbaker (STL) are all solid values on both sites. John Jaso (PIT) and Colby Rasmus (HOU) continue to rank well in our model and carry cheap price tags on DraftKings.

Stacks

Tier One

1) San Francisco Giants

Tier Two

2) Colorado Rockies

Tier Three

3) Boston Red Sox

4) Baltimore Orioles

5) Chicago Cubs

Similar to last night, the Coors Field teams are where you want to mini-stack in cash games as much as salary allows. Also similar to last night, the Colorado game will result in spread out ownerships among the rest of the stacks. For example, the Blue Jays stack had its key components all at roughly five percent or less last night. While it didn’t work out, the game theory was where we wanted it, and we think a similar situation could take place with the tier three stacks tonight, especially the Cubs.

Outside of our tier three stacks:

-Blue Jays (face a good pitcher in Pineda, but once again you can get very low ownership at home, and it’s not as if the 4.5 team total is bad)

-Los Angeles Dodgers (Rubby de la Rosa is horrific against LHBs and this stack is pretty cheap)

-St. Louis Cardinals (perhaps not as a full stack, but you can mini-stack the outfield really cheaply to use with another more expensive mini-stack)

-Minnesota Twins (power from the RHBs and an umpire that’s very tough on pitchers; another situation where you can min-stack the best three hitters rather than blindly full stacking)