April 16 EPL DFS Picks
Hello everyone! Welcome back for another edition of our weekly Premier League content. Last week was fairly decent for our content but I made a poor decision late on to start some Chelsea guys I didn’t write about much, and that backfired on a number of my teams. Lesson learned, I need to stick to my advice. Let’s move on to this upcoming weekend:
The win percentages there on Manchester United are absolutely insane and even though they haven’t been overly impressive in the past month, Aston Villa aren’t Premier League quality and Manchester United have some potential this upcoming weekend. We’ll start with David de Gea.
The Cash Game Play – David De Gea – ($4,500) – De Gea faces a fantasy gold mine in Aston Villa. Aston Villa average nine shots per match away from home and have a low 11 goals in 16 away matches. Manchester are on the other side of the spectrum. They allow the lowest number of shots per game at home at 8.3 and have allowed just seven goals at Old Trafford this season. These numbers are incredibly one-sided, and everything favors Manchester United for a big win and a clean sheet. The 79% chance of a win gives you some nice insurance that if De Gea doesn’t get a clean sheet, a save and a win should at least get him to a point where he doesn’t kill you.
GPP Stud – Fraser Forster ($3,500) – Forster saves you an entire $1000 over De Gea and has a higher ceiling. Everton are an attacking team and should be on the attack the entire match putting shots up, and if some of them find their way on target, there is a good chance Forster racks up points from saves. Southampton are a solid defensive team and they can certainly shut down Everton, and if that happens, a win and a clean sheet would make Forster a great play.
The Cash Play – Daley Blind ($4,200) – Blind takes corners for Manchester United and despite them not winning many, he does enough to be cash worthy in this slow slate. Blind is a little expensive for what he provides, but there are enough cheap players in the slate to allow us to play it safe with at least one defender, and Blind is that safe choice. Ryan Bertrand is another option we are considering in this role.
Possible Cheap Option – Matteo Darmian ($3,300) – We talked about how big of a favorite Manchester United are and Darmian would be good exposure to that if he starts. He can easily meet value at $3,300, especially if he earns a clean sheet, and if starting he will likely be in my cash lineups. Bryan Oviedo is in a similar spot.
Punt Play – James Chester ($2,400) – Chester is extremely cheap and it’s because his floor is fairly low. Despite that, he can provide enough from crosses, tackles, and interceptions to get to value. The matchup is good, and Chester plays at home, so he should be able to get involved in the attack more often. As long as he stays out of foul (yellow card) trouble, he will be able to reach value.
The Cash Stud – Gylfi Sigurdsson ($7,700) – I ignored Gylfi last week due to the tough matchup but he made me pay for it. In cash games, I believe he will be extremely highly owned this week, and his form has been too good for us to ignore him. In his last ten games, Sigurdsson has only had one single digit performance – the game against Arsenal where he only played a half. Use Sigurdsson in cash games without thinking twice, but don’t be afraid to fade him in GPPs due to the extremely high ownership percentage he will carry.
Tournament Target – Juan Mata ($5,000) – Juan Mata has been poor, and I can’t deny that. But Aston Villa presents this type of opportunity and with Manchester United suffering from a few injuries, I expect Mata to start once again. Manchester United still have something to play for – Champions League qualification – and they should go all-out attack against Aston Villa. Mata is extremely cheap, and having only reached double digits once in his past ten matches, I expect his ownership to be low. Use him in tournaments but understand there is risk involved.
The Top Choice – Sergio Aguero ($8,600) – Aguero is always the top choice amongst strikers. He’s incredible and is always a GPP option. With that said, the matchup is not easy and his price is too high – making him a fade in cash games. Use Aguero in tournaments only.
The Manchester Exposure – Wayne Rooney and Marcus Rashford – Both Rooney and Rashford are priced well and that makes our decision a tough one – assuming they both start. Rooney played really well before going down with an injury, but his floor is low and his price is higher. Rashford’s floor isn’t much higher, but he does come at a cheaper price. One of these guys is probably worthy of playing in cash, but we will make that decision once lineups are announced tomorrow. If Memphis Depay starts, he will easily be the cash target from Manchester’s front line. We will have further information on this situation in alerts tomorrow morning.
Overall Slate Thoughts: This slate is a very tough one to play in cash games. There is one really heavy favored team that might just win 1-0, and that leaves with a tough decision on whether or not to stack Manchester United. The game is expected to be over 2.5 goals by Vegas, but that doesn’t leave me too confident considering this is Manchester United against Aston Villa. In tournaments, there is some fun plays that not many people should be on – such as Juan Mata and Diego Costa (someone I didn’t write about in detail) that could provide a lot of differential. I’ll revisit this in alerts tomorrow once we know the starting lineups, but if Memphis Depay doesn’t start, the slate will be tougher from a cash perspective.
Good luck everyone!