April 2 EPL DFS Picks: Serging Ahead
Hello everyone! We are back after the international break and DraftKings welcomes us back with some huge tournaments. It’s a super fun slate for GPPs this week, as there are a number of high-end options in good spots. Let’s take a look at the winning percentages and go from there:
A few interesting things to notes there:
- Arsenal are the biggest favorites, unsurprisingly, followed by Manchester City. Both teams provide a lot of options this weekend.
- Norwich is expected to beat Newcastle, even though they are not capable of scoring goals. I’m not sure how that’s a thing, but that game is going to be bad.
- Sunderland are actually quite favored against West Brom. Their chances to win are almost the same as Manchester City’s, and their attack is wildly cheaper on DraftKings. There is value at Sunderland. It’s worth noting a lot of projection systems have Sunderland at something closer to 30-35% chance of winning:
This week’s EPL predictions: Arsenal defending a lot of expected points, Spurs can pick up ground, LCFC favorites pic.twitter.com/82dFKDFl62
— Chad Murphy (@Soccermetric) March 31, 2016
- Liverpool – Tottenham is expectedly predicted to be close. This one could be high scoring, but don’t be surprised if Liverpool keep Spurs at check.
Let’s get to the picks.
The Top Choice – David Ospina ($4,400) – Arsenal have the best odds at a win-to-nil and it’s not even close. Ospina is really expensive, but he is the safest bet to keep a clean sheet and is worthy of consideration in cash games. With the number of good options available in the $2,900 range, Ospina can be faded in exchange for salary cap relief. Worth noting is that teammate Petr Cech is only $3,500 and has been upgraded from out to questionable. If Cech starts, he is by far the number one cash game option on this slate.
The Next Tier – Willy Caballero ($2,900), Jakob Haugaard ($2,900), and Karl Darlow ($2,800) – These three are all subbing in for injured goalkeepers and provide viable sources of cash relief. In cash games, Caballero is the preferred choice and it’s not close. In GPPs, there is value in all three. Haugaard gets a nice matchup at home and could keep a clean sheet with a number of saves (he is replacing Jack Butland, the leader in saves this season). Darlow faces Norwich, who have ten shots on target in the past six matches, and a win-to-nil is very possible for him. I would realistically split the three in GPPs, and go with Caballero in cash.
GPP Only Target – Simon Mignolet ($3,700) – This is a “make sure you’re hydrated because you’ll be sweating a lot” type of play. Mignolet faces Tottenham, who have been red hot lately, in a overly-hyped match. Harry Kane is bound to be highly owned, and there is a very realistic shot Tottenham don’t score here. This is a GPP only play, and one that will have you sweating through this whole match, but it could pay off in a big way. The reasoning is that Tottenham will find ways to put shots on target, but the quality will be questionable. Mignolet realistically has a range of [-6, 25], so it’s extremely risky, but worth chasing that upside. Vito Mannone is someone with a similar range that is worthy of taking shots at in GPPs.
The Top Choice – Danny Rose ($4,600) – Danny Rose is really expensive for a defender, but his upside makes his price reasonable. The Tottenham full-back has been incredible, reaching 13 points in three of his last four matches. That sort of consistency makes him an option in cash and GPP games, despite his high price. If you are going to spend on a defender, spend on Rose.
The Next Best – Gael Clichy ($3,800) – Clichy is a bit of a “meh” play this week, but that’s the state of the defender position. There isn’t much to love, and that leaves me to go with someone whose floor is around 2.2x – 2.3x their salary. Assuming Clichy starts at full-back, I like his chances at getting enough crosses against Bournemouth to reach value when combined with his phantom stats. If City are to go down 1-0 early on, he will have every opportunity to exceed that value with ease.
The Punt Play – Stephen Kingsley ($2,200) – Kingsley is a boring player who doesn’t bring much to the table outside of allowing you to play a stacked midfield. He is salary cap relief on a heavily offensive slate, and he does just enough to be able to reach value at $2,200. Depending on whether any new values pop up when lineups are announced, Kingsley is cash viable.
Defender Notes: Nyom is an option at $3,100 but the matchup is tough. If a sub $2,500 full-back comes up in starting lineups in the morning, they will almost certainly be a cash game option in this tough slate. Martin Olsson is someone who is worthy of cash consideration if starting. Check back during our lineup alerts tomorrow morning to see if any defender values emerge. Remember to sign up for those HERE.
The Top Play – Dimitri Payet ($8,600) – I shouldn’t have to speak about why Payet is an option. His floor is extremely safe and his upside is immense. He gets a plus matchup at home and can be expected to score or assist. He is a primary cash play, especially with the number of cheap options at goalkeeper.
The Mid-Range – Philippe Coutinho ($5,800) – Coutinho is a nice way to get exposure to the Liverpool – Tottenham match. He should be running the show in this one with James Milner limited, and he shoots/crosses enough to have a safe floor for his price. I expect the match to be up-and-down a lot, so Coutinho should get enough chances to make a difference in this one. A goal or assist puts him well above value.
Another One – Yannick Bolasie ($6,200) – Bolasie has once again begun showing his worth in cash games. He is shooting and crossing at an incredible rate and an away matchup at West Ham is a good place to showcase his skills. If West Ham take the lead, Palace will need to attack for a good portion of the match and Bolasie will be who they go through most often. At $6,200, Bolasie is an option in cash games.
Crossing Jesus – Jesus Navas ($5,100) – I really like Manchester City this week and Jesus Navas is a good way to get exposure to them. He has been crossing at an insanely high rate, and if City attack as I expect them to, he can rack up crosses quickly tomorrow. The concern with him is that Kevin de Bruyne is expected to be back, so Navas’ time can be cut short around the 60 or 70 minute mark, but I think he has enough upside to meet value in a limited fashion.
Midfielder Notes: David Silva is always a GPP option when Manchester City are a favorite, but he can’t be trusted in cash at that price. Matt Ritchie is another target in GPPs over Dimitri Payet. Someone to consider in cash games is Wahbi Khazri, who has impressed at Sunderland and comes at an affordable $5,400. He gets a great matchup. A punt play at midfield is Mattew Jarvis, who comes at just $3,300 and faces a horrible Newcastle defense starting their third string goalkeeper. Jarvis can be considered as salary cap relief in cash games. If Bakary Sako starts, he is definitely a cash game option. Alex Iwobi is a GPP only play if he starts. Manuel Lanzini is a really fun GPP option at just $3,500.
The Top Play – Sergio Aguero ($8,800) – Aguero is really expensive and extremely hard to justify in cash games. He isn’t someone on my cash radar, but he is one of the best GPP options on the slate. He hasn’t scored in his last three matches, but a lot of that has been variance and a few good saves from opposing goalkeepers. Manchester City really need a win here to stay in the top four, and they should go all out attack on Bournemouth. Aguero has three goal upside anytime he plays, and with people flocking to Harry Kane, Aguero is a great differential pick this week.
The Next Best – Alexis Sanchez ($7,800) – Sanchez has been getting back into the swing of things and improving his form. His matchup is ideal, and the only concern is that he needs a goal for value and that can be risky in cash games. Sanchez is a fantastic GPP option this week, right behind Aguero. He is favored over Harry Kane by a wide margin.
Cash Game Plays
There are a number of cheaper forward picks that are playable in cash games this week. Here they are, in order of preference:
Danny Welbeck ($5,500) – The striker should start at home against Watford and is in a great spot to have success. He is viable in cash at that price.
Daniel Sturridge ($4,600) – He is still getting his form back and the matchup is not easy, but starting at home for a striker of his quality is worth more than $4,600. He is a bargain.
Jermain Defoe ($4,700) – Sports books love his chances to score and he is in great form. I’m not as big on him, but the matchup is nice and he can be considered in cash if you prefer him over the previous two options.
Max Gradel ($5,400) – Max Gradel has a nice floor for $5,400 but the matchup is really tough. I would prioritize the higher guys first.
Good luck everyone! We’ll back tomorrow morning to give you alerts!