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April 27 MLB DFS: Moore Coors
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April 27 MLB DFS: Moore Coors

01:31 FanDuel Scoring Changes
02:53 Starting Pitchers
09:37 Catchers
12:22 First Base
15:28 Second Base
17:11 Shortstop
21:13 Third Base
23:09 Outfield
28:58 Cash Game Roster Construction
30:41 Stacks

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April 27 MLB DFS Pro-Tip

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Tier One

1) Jake Arrieta (CHC)

Tier Two

2a) Gio Gonzalez (WAS)

2b) Matt Harvey (NYM)

Tier Three

4) Matt Moore (TB)

5) Hisashi Iwakuma (SEA)

6) Sonny Gray (OAK)

7) Jose Berrios (MIN)

8) Scott Kazmir (LAD)

9) Marco Estrada (TOR)

Tier Four

10) Justin Verlander (DET)

11) Josh Tomlin (CLE)

12) Collin McHUgh (HOU)

13) Chris Tillman (BAL)

14) Nick Tropeano (LAA)

Jake Arrieta (CHC) is the clear top starting pitcher by a wide margin as his overall skills (ERAs of 2.53/1.77/0.53 in ’14-’16) and a prime matchup against a bad, right handed heavy Brewers offense in Wrigley Field where temperatures will be cool and the wind blowing in. The issue with Arrieta is a huge cost, which on another day we may be more willing to swallow. However, a Coors Field slate and potential weather issues in Chicago likely have us looking the value route, although Arrieta is more viable on DraftKings where you have more flexibility in roster construction.

The best value options if not using Arrieta are both of our tier two starting pitchers, Matt Harvey (NYM) and Gio Gonzalez (WAS), or are tier three leader, Matt Moore (TB). Harvey’s peripherals early on are ugly (4.41 xFIP, 14.3 K percentage), but Vegas isn’t bothered (-230 favorite, opposing team total around 3). Gonzalez has stronger peripherals, but it’s possible an easy early schedule is masking a slight velocity dip. It’s also possible that doesn’t matter because the schedule remains easy against a Phillies team he faced once and dominated and is ranked dead last in wRC+ against LHP with a huge 33.8 K percentage (tops by 6.8 points). We’re actually a bit more comfortable here than with Harvey, although our model gives Harvey the slight edge. Matt Moore (TB) may be the best value of the bunch. This post hype sleeper is at home (very friendly park for his fly ball tilt) against a very cold Orioles team. The peripherals are stellar through four starts (3.37 xFIP, 25.2 K percentage), and his slight reverse split means we won’t be scared off by a righty heavy Orioles lineup.

We’d like to stick to those three value plays, but if you really need to save on a second starting pitcher, we’re looking at one of Jose Berrios (MIN) (top MIN prospect getting called up for MLB debut), Scott Kazmir (LAD) (extremely low opposing run total, but he’s dealing with an injury that has us scared), and Marco Estrada (TOR) (really strong start to the season, but it could unfold at any point). With all three carrying risk, our lean is the way of the most talented pitcher of the group – Berrios.

Catcher Rankings

1) Francisco Cervelli (PIT)

2) Buster Posey (SF)

3) Nick Hundley (COL)

4) Victor Martinez (DET)

5) Russell Martin (TOR)

The catcher position is really ugly for this slate. On FanDuel, Victor Martinez (DET), Russell Martin (TOR) (dealing with a neck injury), and Stephen Vogt (OAK) are all viable as cheap options. Vogt is the only one of that group who remains cash viable on DK (.339 wOBA, .172 ISO against RHP for career; Verlander allowing a high hard hit rate), but it might make sense to completely punt the position. If Bryan Holaday (TEX) is in the lineup, he’d be an option there at a bare minimum price tag.

First Base Rankings

1) Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)

2) David Ortiz (BOS)

3) John Jaso (PIT)

4) Edwin Encarnacion (TOR)

5) Lucas Duda (NYM)

6) Anthony Rizzo (CHC)

7) Jose Abreu (CHW)

8) Freddie Freeman (ATL)

9) Joey Votto (CIN)

10) Mark Teixeira (NYY)

With the Atlanta-Boston series switching back home, David Ortiz (BOS) will DH and return to his regular spot in the lineup. Given that Bud Norris has allowed a .371 wOBA and 1.57 HR/9 to LHBs since 2013, Ortiz is a great option in all formats and all sites. The price is friendliest on FanDuel. John Jaso (PIT) continues to be a pretty easy way to get Coors Field access given his dramatically reduced K rate to start the season and always strong on base skills against RHP. Some site specific values include Edwin Encarnacion (TOR) on DraftKings (slow start but squaring up the ball recently; too cheap at home versus a LHP), and Freddie Freeman (ATL) on FanDuel (dragged down by poor lineup around him but great individual skills and a subpar opposing pitcher in knuckle baller Steven Wright). An additional option is Lucas Duda (NYM) who may hit cleanup if Cespedes is out. He’s got tons of power upside against RHP (high fly ball and hard hit rates) and will face the below average Jon Moscot and a horrible Reds bullpen.

Second Base Rankings

1) Brian Dozier (MIN)

2) Neil Walker (NYM)

3) Dustin Pedroia (BOS)

4) Jason Kipnis (CLE)

5) Ben Zobrist (CHC)

We think Brian Dozier (MIN) is a touch underpriced for his power-speed skills, but Josh Tomlin has been solid, building off last year’s success. He and Neil Walker (NYM) are best suited for tournaments, but the scarcity of the position makes them viable in cash. More than likely in cash games, we’re simply dropping down to Jed Lowrie (OAK). He’s cheap, always holds the platoon edge, and should continue to hit clean up.

Shortstop Rankings

1) Trevor Story (COL)

2) Carlos Correa (HOU)

3) Xander Bogaerts (BOS)

4) Jimmy Rollins (CHW)

5) Troy Tulowitzki (TOR)

Trevor Story (COL) is coming back down to earth a bit, but there’s still power upside as indicated by his high fly ball rate (53.2 percent) and hard hit rate (44 percent). We’ll take our chances on a high risk-high reward skill set like this given the park (Coors Field) and the opposing pitcher (Jon Niese is a contact oriented LHP). While he’s not our top priority, it’s also not terribly difficult to use him in cash games if you aren’t paying up for Arrieta. In general, our decision at the position is pretty binary – pay up for Story or punt with Brad Miller (TB), who is very cheap and hit second last night. On DraftKings, there’s a bit more room to attack the middle ground, with Xander Bogaerts (BOS), Jimmy Rollins (CHW), and Troy Tulowitzki (TOR) all representing somewhat cost effective ways to get exposure to the above average team totals their teams possess.

Third Base Rankings

1) Nolan Arenado (COL)

2) Josh Donaldson (TOR)

3) Kris Bryant (CHC)

4) Adrian Beltre (TEX)

5) Manny Machado (BAL)

Third base is a really good position to spend up. Nolan Arenado (COL) gets the platoon edge at home, which automatically gives him a ton of upside. However, a soft tossing LHP and his early season peripherals (1.50 EYE) really make us feel comfortable. Josh Donaldson (TOR) faces a solid but not dominant LHP in Jose Quintana. With his ridiculous splits (.439 wOBA, .338 ISO, 6.7 HR rate since 2013) and a home park accentuating RH power, he’s a fine pivot off of Arenado. If you are unable to pay up, the main value targets are Adrian Beltre (TEX) (CC Sabathia has allowed a .363 wOBA and 1.50 HR/9 to RHBs since 2013) and Justin Turner (LAD) (too cheap for his lineup spot in a solid offense).

Outfield Rankings

1) Bryce Harper (WAS)

2) Andrew McCutchen (PIT)

3) Starling Marte (PIT)

4) Mike Trout (LAA)

5) Giancarlo Stanton (MIA)

6) Jose Bautista (TOR)

7) Mookie Betts (BOS)

8) Carlos Gonzalez (COL)

9) Curtis Granderson (NYM)

10) Michael Conforto (NYM)

11) David Peralta (ARI)

12) Miguel Sano (MIN)

13) Jason Heyward (CHC)

14) Randal Grichuk (STL)

15) Stephen Piscotty (STL)

16) Dexter Fowler (CHC)

17) Adam Eaton (CHW)

18) Ian Desmond (TEX)

19) Carlos Beltran (NYY)

20) Yasiel Puig (LAD)

Bryce Harper (WAS) is back in his spot as the top overall hitter. We’ve been all over the insane improvement he showed last year that has somehow been topped early this season (12.2 K rate), and Jeremy Hellickson has allowed a 19.9 hard minus soft hit rate to LHBs since 2013. He’s in play in all formats on DraftKings, but on FanDuel it makes more sense to drop down roughly a thousand dollars for Coors Field exposure with Andrew McCutchen (PIT) or Starling Marte (PIT). Outside of the top three outfielders, Jose Bautista (TOR), Carlos Gonzalez (COL), and Michael Conforto (NYM) are all fine next level cash game spends. Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) is very viable in tournaments (ridiculous home run in 7.8 percent of PAs against LHP since 2013). If going the value route, the best guys across the industry are Delino DeShields (TEX) (expecting him back in the leadoff spot against a LHP) and Stephen Piscotty/Randal Grichuk (STL) (plenty of upside with top 4-5 lineup spots against a LHP with a very large park shift in their favor).

Stacks

Tier One

1) Pittsburgh Pirates

Tier Two

2) Colorado Rockies

Tier Three

3) Boston Red Sox

4) New York Mets

5) New York Yankees

The top four stacks are matchups we hit on throughout the pro tip, but the Yankees are in a situation where we like the team upside but kept finding individual values not making the cut at specific position. It’s actually a park upgrade for their RHBs, and Martin Perez fails to miss bats while being backed up by an atrocious bullpen (5.13 ERA, 2.11 HR/9, Kela to the DL).

Tournament Stacks

-Toronto Blue Jays (surprisingly didn’t rate higher in our model (Quintana is a solid overall pitcher) but there’s so much power against LHP that this lineup can be full stacked, especially if ownership is going to be a bit lower due to the Coors Field slate)

-Arizona Diamondbacks (Adam Wainwright‘s early season numbers are more than just small sample size noise – 3.63 K/9, 27.4 hard minus soft hit rate, 5.95 xFIP)

-Texas Rangers (low K, high BB rates for Sabathia will really get him in trouble when the HR/FB rate regresses)

-Washington Nationals (pretty deep lineup; Hellickson has a 18.3 hard minus soft hit rate and the bullpen behind him is atrocious)

-Oakland Athletics (cheap complementary stack to Coors Field; simply a play against Verlander’s 38.5 hard hit rate)

MLB Daily Analysis

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