Welcome to April 28 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for April 27 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
April 28 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
01:20 Starting Pitcher
13:51 First Base
17:00 Second Base
19:47 Third Base
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
April 28 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
Max Scherzer (WAS) is the top ranked starter on this slate as he comes with the most built-in strikeout skill and the lowest implied run total against (3.2). He’ll face a Mets’ offense that provides plenty of LH power to threaten Scherzer’s biggest weakness (.171 ISO allowed since 2015 to LHBs) but has struggled mightily this season against RHP (29th in wRC+ with a league average 21.9 K Rate). Scherzer is priced appropriately and makes for a fine cash game spend on a slate that lacks elite offensive environments you feel forced into chasing. There are a slew of acceptable mid-tier targets should you choose a path that requires more offensive spending.
Jeff Samardzija (SF) and Kenta Maeda (LAD) represent the two strongest mid-tier options according to our projections. Both players benefit from elite matchups at home in some of the most favorable pitching environments in baseball. Samardzija faces a Padres’ offense that struggles to get left-handed (max four, often three – one of which is Erick Aybar) and Samardzija has been very tough on RHBs (.291 wOBA, .121 ISO) since 2015. The Padres opened with an implied run total of just 3.6. They’ve struck out 25.5 percent of the time against RHP this season and rank 23rd in wRC+. Maeda faces the Phillies who have been league average against RHP this season (15th in wRC+) but struck out in 24.7 percent of their PAs. They have been much better at getting LH heavy with a slew of switch hitters which depending on the lineup could drive down Maeda’s projection as his baseline split is much more favorable against RHBs. On DraftKings, we prefer Samardzija at a similar price point. However, on FanDuel, the decision is tighter if fading Scherzer as Maeda is really cheap ($7,800). We’re most likely keeping our cash game decisions between these three starters
In tournaments, Ian Kennedy (KC), Carlos Carrasco (CLE), Jacob deGrom (NYM), Marcus Stroman (TOR), Robbie Ray (ARI), Adam Conley (MIA), Jameson Taillon (PIT), and Chase Anderson (MIL) are all viable targets. All of these starters have strikeout upside in their respective matchups but have secondary price tags or run-scoring environments that push them down our projections.
On a full slate, there are actually enough catcher options to have a discussion. Yasmani Grandal (LAD) leads the way on both sites, representing salary relief with a good lineup spot. We’ll get Grandal from the left side of the plate, the side where he’s been much more powerful (.224 ISO since 2014). There is little concern against his opponent, Zach Eflin, who projects for an ERA north of five and less than six strikeouts per nine via ZiPS.
Some less dynamic catching options also represent viable salary relief options on this slate. Chris Iannetta (ARI) will draw the platoon advantage as the Colorado Rockies travel to Chase Field. He will come with a lower lineup spot than Grandal, but he also comes at lower salary and likely less ownership. Furthermore, Iannetta has produced the 4th highest Hard% among catchers in the last 15 days.
Alex Avila (DET) warrants some consideration in a matchup with his former battery mate, Mike Pelfrey. Expectations are very low for Pelfrey, who continues to be a pinata for opposing lineups, allowing a ton of contact while struggling to keep the ball in the yard. Avila’s teammates, James McCann (DET) and Victor Martinez (DET) (FD only) should also be in the conversation against Pelfrey.
Buster Posey‘s (SF) skill set always moves him into the tournament conversation, but a tough park and high price tag keep him there.
Chris Carter (NYY) headlines the first base position on both sites, drawing a home matchup with a southpaw. Carter has been devastating to left-handers in his career (.239 ISO) and his matchup with Jayson Aquino will provide him that platoon advantage. Though there is a lot of swing and miss in Carter’s game, he gets a small boost tonight as Aquino does not project as a big strikeout arm (5.13 K/9 rest of season projection via ZiPS). A great macro environment with a higher probability of balls in play puts Carter in play, the potential for a bad lineup spot (hit 7th last two times against LHP) will be a big hit to his value.
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) headlines an Arizona team that will be a popular draw against left-hander Kyle Freeland. On a day with such premiums at starting pitcher, it’ll be difficult to fit Goldschmidt’s price, but if you can make it work he is worthy in all formats.
Eric Thames (MIL) and Freddie Freeman (ATL) will play against each other and are priced in a similar range to Goldschmidt. There is just a small margin in projection between the three of these players, making all of them viable alternatives.
On the cheaper side of things, Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) and Brandon Belt (SF) enter the conversation. Neither will be holding the same macro environment as the members already listed, but both will get good lineup spots against exploitable arms in Eflin and Luis Perdomo, respectively. Dodgers prospect Cody Bellinger (LAD) holds first base eligibility on DraftKings and he lead off against the last right-handed pitcher they saw. He’s just $3,100 and would rate as the top DK value should he find himself hitting leadoff again.
Jonathan Villar (MIL) headlines the second base position, drawing a matchup with RHP Bartolo Colon. It’s been a slow start for Villar, but the power and speed are what we are targeting against Colon. The price is potentially a bit restrictive, but he is the clear top projected second baseman in our model.
After Villar a few cheaper options emerge. Tyler Saladino (CWS) stands out on both sites, but merely as a lineup spot and price play. Still though, the matchup with Matt Boyd is an exploitable one as Boyd has allowed a .357 wOBA and .212 ISO to RHB since 2015. For a pure punt, you can look to Jed Lowrie (OAK) who continues to hit third for Oakland and has not seen his price move. He’s just $2,300 on FD and $2,800 on DK.
Brad Miller (TB) offers some salary relief in his matchup with Marcus Stroman. Miller is just $3,100 on FanDuel, but more importantly $3,400 on DraftKings where pricing is a bit more restrictive overall. Stroman does an excellent job keeping the ball on the ground, which will help to play against Miller’s power (.203 ISO against RHP since 2014), but the park shift and lineup spot put him in play.
For just $3,000 on FD you’ll get DJ LeMahieu (COL) who will get a premier lineup spot and a great macro environment in his matchup in Chase Field. Ben Zobrist (CHC) is just $2,900 on FD as well as the Cubs lineup fills out gaining the DH in Fenway Park.
The third base position is entirely site specific tonight. On FanDuel, Manny Machado (BAL) sits absurdly low at just $3,300 where he is the top value by far. Machado has the fifth best Hard% this season among third baseman in our batted ball tool, but the results have yet to show up. Priced as the 12th most expensive third baseman doesn’t exactly compute with his skillset given a great macro environment and a matchup with CC Sabathia.
Where Machado is more accurately priced on DraftKings, the value lives with Mike Moustakas (KC) and Justin Turner (LAD). Moustakas finds himself just a few spots down in our batted ball tool, and he remains just $3,100 on DraftKings. He’ll draw an excellent lineup spot against Kyle Gibson who allowed 1.22 HR/9 last season and in a short sample this year has allowed 2.65 HR/9. Turner on the other hand will be able to utilize his skills against same handed pitchers. At just $3,400 on DraftKings, he represents a similar value to Moustakas. Since 2014, Turner has posted a .398 wOBA and .208 ISO against RHP.
Nick Castellanos (DET) has been hitting third with no Miguel Cabrera and he’ll draw a matchup with former teammate Mike Pelfrey. If once again going back to the hard hit tool, Castellanos has posted the second highest Hard% for the season and last fifteen days among all third basemen.
Though they rate slightly worse on the value scale, Kris Bryant (CHC) and Nolan Arenado (COL) project as the top two scoring third basemen. Both Bryant and Arenado will be in good macro environments and will hold the platoon advantage. Their price tags will make it difficult to use them in cash games, but they are excellent GPP plays.
Corey Seager (LAD) and Chris Owings (ARI) headline the shortstop position on both sites. Seager slots into a popular and valuable Dodgers lineup against right-hander Zach Eflin. Seager is the best Dodger bat and comes with a reachable price tag on both sites. He finds himself just behind Trea Turner in terms of Hard% this season for shortstops and has posted a .415 wOBA and .235 ISO against RHP in his short career.
Owings is coming off a multi-homer game and should slide back up to the second spot in the order with the platoon advantage coming against Kyle Freeland. Although it’s quite easy to fit Seager, Owings makes for a viable alternative, particularly on DraftKings where there is a $700 difference in their salary.
While the top two stand out the most for cash games, there is a huge chunk of shortstops that hold similar projections and price tags: Troy Tulowitzki (TOR), Elvis Andrus (TEX), Aledmys Diaz (STL), and Trevor Story (COL) all warrant consideration as secondary options, particularly in GPPs.
Mike Trout (LAA) is our top projected outfielder on the slate, receiving a nice positive park boost and drawing a matchup with right-hander, Nick Martinez. Unfortunately, with the park boost and his skillset, Trout’s price tag is out of reach for cash games that will feature a top starting pitcher.
Surrounding Trout, there are a handful of strong values in the outfield on both sites. Cody Bellinger (LAD) holds outfield eligibility on FanDuel and is just $2,300. If he should find himself in the lineup, he’s a great value and a cheap way to get exposure to the Dodgers offense. Jaff Decker (OAK) and Matt Joyce (OAK) have still not received price bumps. They duo has been hitting 1-2 against RHP and should do the same against RHP Charlie Morton. Decker is just $2,200 on FD, and $2,100 on DK. Tyler Collins (DET) is just $2,700 on DraftKings and $2,400 on FanDuel. He should hit second against Pelfrey, who has struggled with LHB, allowing a .375 wOBA and 10.6% BB% to LHB since 2014.
Josh Reddick (HOU) should join the cheapies conversation in the OF. He’s been leading off and remains just $3,500 on DK and $3,000 on FanDuel.
AJ Pollock (ARI) and Yasmany Tomas (ARI) make up the Diamondbacks outfield duo that is most desirable for tonight’s games. The pair both have great platoon splits and middling price tags that make them potential targets in either format.
Matt Holliday (NYY) will take advantage of the same matchup as teammate Chris Carter, but is likely to receive a much better lineup spot. He is our second most valuable OF on FanDuel where he is just $2,800. Kole Calhoun (LAA) joins Holliday as an incredibly valuable OF on FanDuel at just $2,600.
Bryce Harper (WSH) and Ryan Braun (MIL) find themselves among the top five projected outfielders, but their price tags are a bit too restrictive for cash games. They both are great GPP pivots if spending at the position.
1) Arizona Diamondbacks
2) Los Angeles Dodgers
3) Milwaukee Brewers
4) Colorado Rockies
5) New York Yankees
6) Los Angeles Angels
The Diamondbacks have the highest implied total on the slate and their lineup is loaded with lefty smashers. Given they’re nearly a run higher than most other offenses on the slate, they’ll likely be popular. The Dodgers serve as a contrarian option with Zach Eflin allowing lots of hard contact and the Dodgers ranking as a Top 10 offense against RHP. The Brewers figure to be popular with Bartolo on the mound and their recent success but also crack our second tier. The Yankees’ have been very strong against LHP early on (eighth in wRC+, 13.2 BB Rate, .171 ISO, but just a .231 BABIP) and Jayson Aquino has a ZiPS rest of season projected ERA over 5.50.
Additional Tournament Stacks
Detroit Tigers – The Tigers don’t rate well in our overall stack rankings as the offense is a bit talent depleted without Miguel Cabrera but facing Mike Pelfrey at home with several cheap options makes them an attractive target in tournaments. Unfortunately, they carry one of the highest implied totals on the slate and those price tags will make them popular with Scherzer.