April 29th MLB DFS Picks
Wednesday’s MLB action starts early with six games before the usual 7pm Eastern lock time, but that slate just feels too degen for me. I want to take a look at the normal night slate instead. This is a nine-game slate and one that includes plenty of aces for us to choose from.
I’m at the point where I just don’t even care who Felix Hernandez is facing from start to start. He’s been dominant in 2015 with three starts of one earned run or less. In those three starts he struck out 31 (23 innings) and only allowed nine hits. Yes. You heard that right. Nine hits! We’re going to see the dominant King Felix tonight and for the second time against the Rangers this season. He faced them two starts ago and allowed just two hits in seven innings. The Rangers lineup that night was their typical lineup and Leonys Martin was the only one to record a hit.
Drew Smyly is a bold pick tonight, but I really like his matchup. He’ll face a Yankees lineup loaded with left handed bats, but will have a pitch count. He only threw 80 pitches against the Blue Jays in his lone 2015 start giving up four hits and two earned runs. I’m betting he’s going to be bumped to 90-95 pitches at the very least, so there shouldn’t be too much concern in that regard. In 2014, left-handed batters had a wOBA of just .216 against Smyly.
The first two teams I want to target tonight are the obvious ones: Colorado and Arizona. These two should be playing in the highest total game of the day with the best hitting environment (Arizona). Josh Collmenter gets the nod for the Diamondbacks while Jordan Lyles goes for the Rockies. I think the lefties for the Rockies are the strongest plays in this one due to Collmenter’s inability to miss bats (4.78 K/9 vs LHB). It also doesn’t hurt that Charlie Blackmon, Chris Dickerson, and Justin Morneau hit in prime positions in the order.
With the great looking ERAs these two are sporting, maybe we’ll get a little lucky with low ownership. Two guys that could be lower owned with good matchups are Ender Inciarte and Paul Goldschmidt. Goldschmidt is always a good play when at home against a non-dominant pitcher, but Inciarte is a good matchup for different reasons. Lyles allowed a wOBA of .372 to LHB in 2014 and Inciarte hits leadoff for this Diamondbacks squad, possessing runs scored and stole base upside.
One last pitcher to target is Ryan Vogelsong. He has an ERA in the sevens this season and the Dodgers had some great success against right-handers in 2014. This might be the time to pay up for Adrian Gonzalez or go cheap with a guy benefitting from the Yasiel Puig injury, Andre Ethier. Ethier only posted a .317 wOBA against RHP last season, but is hitting second now in front of Gonzalez. As for Gonzalez, he’s tearing the cover off the ball this season and posted a .384 wOBA last season against RHPs. If Justin Turner or Alex Guerrero are starting they could be great options as well given Turner’s success in 2014 and Guerrero’s ridiculous start in 2015.