Daily Fantasy Rundown – April 3 NBA DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Sunday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “dinkpiece”, “leonem” and “TheNumbersGuy”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our goal is to bring analysis that will help you build rosters that put you in position to win consistently over the long term.
*Any time a player’s salary is reference as a discount or premium, it is relative to the average cost of a roster spot.
**Usage/Assist/Rebounding Rates courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Slate Note: The content will cover all games starting 3:30 EST and later. FanDuel has split these into two slates while DraftKings has one all day slate. We’ll try to highlight the difference between sites and slates within the recommendations.
Point Guard – Our featured site for the point guard position is FanDuel
Stephen Curry (GS)/Russell Westbrook (OKC) – The two best DFS point guards in the league are in action on a full Sunday slate. They’re each participating in games with totals over 220 and while Westbrook is in the more competitive environment (Thunder are slight favorites), we have Curry as a slightly better value. The gap in start times between the two games leaves each player as the top point guard option for their respective slate. Westbrook’s early slate has more competition for top high dollar spends and he falls a bit behind Harden and Durant in our preference. On the all-day slate on DraftKings, positional scarcity is less of a concern and Westbrook is a bit more in the conversation for cash games. We have Curry and Westbrook projected identically alongside Durant and a little behind Harden. Curry’s projection comes with some uncertainty as the Blazers could opt to rest Lillard on a back-to-back in the midst of a four games in five nights test down the stretch that includes games at Sacramento and home vs. Oklahoma City. Portland is playing for their playoff spot but with two games up in the loss column, they could opt to take the loss at Golden State and better prepare themselves for more winnable games. The disparity in start times prevents us from having full information here, so if spending on point guard locking it in with Westbrook is a fine option, but we’re more likely on DraftKings to lock Harden over Westbrook in that first game.
Isaiah Thomas (BOS)/Damian Lillard (POR) – Thomas and Lillard aren’t technically the next-in-line options at point guard as John Wall and Chris Paul are on the slate, but they’re the next best values if still spending up for a reasonably strong floor. Thomas is the safer of the two options as he takes on a Lakers defense that ranks 30th in defensive efficiency against point guards and 30th overall. The Celtics are still playing for positioning and we haven’t heard much consideration for the Celtics resting players. Thomas’ is priced fairly but the matchup provides a nice opportunity for some positive ROI and a strong floor to boot. Lillard is on the opposite end of the spectrum as Thomas. He’s under-priced but the matchup with the Warriors can present some challenges to efficiency. Golden State ranks 13th in defensive efficiency against point guards and fourth in overall defensive efficiency. Lillard also comes with some blowout (and maybe rest?) risk as the Blazers will open as double digit underdogs. However, the upside is immense given the pace boost and the Warriors allow the fourth most points per game to the point guard position. We’ve seen both ends of the spectrum in this matchup. Lillard was held to 5-19 shooting and played just 30 minutes in a blowout loss to Golden State last time out but in the meeting before he went for 51 points, seven assists, and six steals while shooting 18-28 in a blowout win. Lillard’s price earns him consideration in cash games, especially on the shorter late slate on FanDuel, but his best use is most likely in tournaments.