April 30 EPL DFS Picks: We Like Our Chances with Sanchez
Welcome back everyone! We are here for another week of Premier League content and there are some fairly one sided games this week. That means there will lots of opportunities for value and tournaments should be fun. There are also a lot of chalk plays in cash, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing since some people will always fade the chalk and gives us an edge in cash games with clearly superior plays. Let’s take a quick look at the games first:
Watford vs. Aston Villa
Everton vs. Bournemouth
Newcastle vs. Crystal Palace
Stoke City vs. Sunderland
West Brom vs. West Ham
Arsenal vs. Norwich
The biggest game to focus on will obviously be Arsenal. They are huge home favorites to Norwich and there will be multiple value plays there. Similarly, Watford will be at home to Aston Villa, presenting a number of other cash game options.
The Chalk – Petr Cech ($4,500) – Cech faces Norwich at home and gets an insane 50% chance to win-to-nil. That’s worth five points in itself (10 total points at 50% chance), and the safety Cech provides should be enough to make him our primary cash game target. To give you some perspective on how bad Norwich have been, they’ve averaged 9.6 shots per game away from home and will likely have less against Arsenal tomorrow. Use Cech in cash without thinking twice.
Next Best – Heurelho Gomes ($4,000) – I expect Heurolho Gomes to be quite high owned as he comes in at $500 less. He faces Aston Villa, by far the worst team in the league, and despite Watford’s recent struggles, they are huge favorites this weekend. There are higher ceiling plays that are cheaper than Gomes, so he is likely not the ideal GPP target, but he is certainly playable in cash and GPP.
Goalkeeper Notes: Vito Mannone is cheap and has 17 saves over the last three weeks. He is on the road against a weak team and this could be another 20 point outing for him. He is a great GPP target. Wayne Hennessey is really cheap and has similarly impressive save numbers in recent weeks. He is a primary GPP target tomorrow.
Top Play – Craig Dawson ($4,000) – Dawson has been playing really well as of late and is a bit cheaper than the Arsenal duo (Bellerin and Monreal). He gets a home matchup against West Ham and should be able to do enough once again to reach value. He is a high upside player as he likes to get involved in the attack, but I feel comfortable recommending him for cash games as well. .
The Cash Play – Callum Connolly ($2,000) – Connolly is $2000 and has a real shot at starting for Everton this weekend. If he gets the start, he is the easiest play of the slate at just $2000. Everton will be on the attack in this match and Connolly should meet value from crosses alone – a clean sheet or any other stats will be a bonus.
Mid-Range Value – Pape Souare ($3,500) – There is nothing “exciting” here. Souare is a fairly average fullback who likes to move up and cross the ball. He gets a fair matchup, and Crystal Palace have had a ton of injuries where he’ll very likely have to start again. There isn’t much to write home about here, except that Souare is priced correctly in a favorable matchup and is at a price-range where he allows you to spend up top.
Defender Notes: Adrian Mariappa was a bright spot for Crystal Palace last week and could start again. He would be an option at $2,000 that allows you to spend up elsewhere. Jose Holebas is a great cash game play if he starts, but that is questionable. Whoever starts for Watford at full-back will be an option. They are all reasonably priced and get a great matchup.
The Top Play – Dimitri Payet ($8,200) – Payet is the most expensive player on the slate by a wide margin. He is also the best fantasy option by just as big of a margin. The West Ham midfielder has been insanely effective at scoring fantasy points, and his floor is generally around the 15 fantasy point mark. With a floor that high, he is worth spending up on, and he should be utilized in cash games on Saturday.
A GPP Target – Yannick Bolasie ($6,400) – Bolasie is expensive but with the number of injuries Palace are dealing with, he will likely be extremely involved in the attack. For Bolasie, that means a ton of shots and crosses. That should solidify his floor, and a goal or assist can easily bump him above value. The price is a little high for me to play him in cash, but he is in consideration and not a horrible cash option. Jason Puncheon and Bakary Sako are cheaper ways to get into Palace’s lineup and are cash viable.
Cash Option – James McClean ($5,100) – James McClean continuous to be underpriced and he will be insanely high owned in cash tomorrow. He is a crossing machine and meets value through crosses alone, so a goal or assist can get his value to insane levels. Use him in cash and don’t think twice.
GPP Target – Vurnon Anita ($3,500) – Anita has started at right-back for Newcastle but has impressed in the past two matches, getting a goal and an assist. He likes to get involved in the attack and this match should be competitive as Newcastle fight to avoid relegation. Anita is a great GPP target but not likely someone I would play in cash games.
Midfielder Notes: Mesut Ozil is a great GPP target but is a bit pricey for cash games. Matt Ritchie is in a similar boat. Andros Townsend is really expensive now, but he has been great and can be considered in cash. He remains a great GPP target as ownership will likely fall with the price-rise. The Arsenal supporting cast is reasonably priced and there will be options there depending on who starts. Check back with us in alerts tomorrow morning for more information on that situation. Aaron Lennon is a fantastic GPP target. Ben Watson is only $3,800 and can be considered in cash as he’s on corner kick duty in a game where Watford should attack often.
The Top Play – Alexis Sanchez ($7,400) – Sanchez has returned to form and his price is a little low for the floor/ceiling he provides. He is active enough to get to 10 fantasy points even in a bad match, and he carries enough of Arsenal’s offensive load to have a ceiling of 30+ points. Norwich have let in a high number of goals on the road this season and this is a prime spot for Alexis, who is trying to keep Arsenal in the top four. Use him in cash and GPP with confidence.
The Cheap Play – Papiss Cisse ($3,700) – Cisse scored in the last match but I’m not chasing points here. I’m just chasing a good matchup and a striker cheap enough that lets me afford the top play – Alexis Sanchez. I prefer to spend up on sure-deals in cash games, and those are guys like Sanchez and Payet who bring in points every week regardless of the situation. Cisse allows you to afford them while providing a nice upside himself.
Forward Notes: A play that I love in GPPs tomorrow is Romelu Lukaku. The Everton striker has been horrific in recent weeks, especially in fantasy, totaling 16 points over his last five matches. He is, however, someone who gets all his value from goals, and those could come tomorrow in a match against Bournemouth. Take advantage of his super low ownership in GPPs. Odion Ighalo and Troy Deeney have been mediocre at best lately, but both get Aston Villa and are worthy of consideration in GPPs. Danny Welbeck’s matchup is enough to get him into cash consideration, especially at his price, although I prefer Cisse and Sanchez there.