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4/6 MLB DFS Early Slate: Yes Way Jose
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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April 6 MLB DFS Early Slate: Yes Way Jose

TODAY’S SHOW OUTLINE

01:35 Starting Pitchers
07:15 Catchers
08:55 First Base
11:03 Second Base
13:56 Shortstop
16:06 Third Base
17:45 Outfield
21:01 Cash Game Roster Construction
21:50 Stacks

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APRIL 6 MLB DFS Early Slate – Daily Fantasy Rundown

Weather

The only concern is in Cleveland, where it projects to be very windy with a 50-plus percent chance of rain starting at game start time and throughout the rest of the evening. The rest of the games are being played inside, with the exception of SEA-TEX, which has beautiful hitting weather (mid-70s, wind blowing out to RC at 20 mph).

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Tier One

1) Jose Fernandez (MIA)

Tier Two

2) Carlos Carrasco (CLE) (weather risk)

3) Jeff Samardzija (SF)

Tier Three

4) Anibal Sanchez (DET)

5) Patrick Corbin (ARI)

Tier Four

6) Clay Buchholz (BOS)

7) JA Happ (TB)

Jose Fernandez (MIA) is the clear cut top starting pitching option and a primary target for us in cash games on all site. The only slight knock on Fernandez is he doesn’t pitch deep into games, but the rest is roses (home in big park, dominant K rate, career 2.40 ERA). The matchup is particularly nice against a Tigers team that loses the DH (Victor Martinez) and is heavily right handed (just one LHB), which is particularly meaningful for Fernandez and his wide splits (.205 career wOBA and 32.7 K percentage against RHBs).

Of our second tier pitchers, Carlos Carrasco (CLE) clearly has the safer skill set and could finish the season as a top 10 pitcher given his combination of K and GB rates. However, Jeff Samardzija (SF) is projected to bounce back off a down year, and a matchup against this strikeout prone, heavily right-handed Brewers lineup makes him the better value where meaningfully cheaper.

Anibal Sanchez (DET) is a secondary value. He faces an NL team in an NL park and holds a solid K rate. He should bounce back after getting unlucky a year ago (4.99 ERA, 4.03 xFIP). Clay Buchholz (BOS) is a really interesting tournament option. In a matchup that doesn’t stick out and coming off a year ending injury he could go overlooked. Keep in mind, though all his skills came together pre-injury (4.65 K/BB ratio, 48.3 GB rate, 4.5 hard minus soft hit rate).

Catcher

1) Buster Posey (SF)

2) Jonathan Lucroy (MIL)

3) Welington Castillo (ARI)

4) Chris Iannetta (SEA)

5) Nick Hundley (COL)

Once again there’s a large gap between Buster Posey (SF) and the rest of the catchers, making him a strong option to pay up for in cash games with the Giants in a good spot as a team. However, we’d emphasize paying for Jose Fernandez first. If that makes it too difficult to pay up for Posey, look to punt the position with one of the ranked options above or potentially with a cap relief option that emerges when lineups are released, should a regular catcher rest.

First Base Rankings

1) Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)

2) David Ortiz (BOS)

3) Brandon Belt (SF)

4) Edwin Encarnacion (TOR)

5) Carlos Santana (CLE)

6) Chris Carter (MIL)

If you decide against paying up for Jose Fernandez on a short slate, that money should go to Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) who is our second ranked overall hitter (Robinson Cano is first). It’s also possible to use Goldschmidt alongside Fernandez if you punt catcher and take the value route in the outfield. Brandon Belt (SF) is a solid mid-tier value largely for the same reasons as the past two days. Chris Carter (MIL) is pretty much a perpetual tournament option at his current price tag. We’ll also be on the lookout for where Adam Lind (SEA) hits, as we love the Mariners bats today, particularly their LHBs.

Second Base Rankings

1) Robinson Cano (SEA)

2) Joe Panik (SF)

3) Jason Kipnis (CLE)

4) Dee Gordon (MIA)

5) Logan Forsythe (TB)

6) Scooter Gennett (MIL)

There’s a huge gap between Robinson Cano (SEA) and the rest of our second basemen as he has an elite matchup against Colby Lewis, who gives up a ton of power and gets trounced by LHBs (1.28 HR/9 for his career). The Giants for the third straight game face an underwhelming MIL RHP (Taylor Jungmann), leaving Joe Panik (SF) (second in the lineup) as a solid cash game option. Dee Gordon (MIA) is a fine speed tournament option. Logan Forsythe (TB) (increased power last year, good splits versus LHP, leading off) and Scooter Gennett (MIL) (hitting second in a plus pitcher’s park and Jeff Samardzija has always struggled against LHBs) are fine cheap alternatives, although we’d make an effort to pay up for Cano.

Shortstop Rankings

1) Trevor Story (COL)

2) Ketel Marte (SEA)

3) Francisco Lindor (CLE)

4) Jean Segura (ARI)

5) Troy Tulowitzki (TOR)

6) Brandon Crawford (SF)

Well sound like a broken record here, but with Trevor Story (COL) (underpriced power/speed threat), Ketel Marte (SEA) (best matchup of the shortstops), and Jean Segura (ARI) all hitting towards the top of their respective lineups in plus hitting environments, it’s easy to simply go cheap at the position. Troy Tulowitzki (TOR) is an excellent tournament option as he gives you exposure to the Blue Jays offense against a LHP, but hitting fifth in a pitcher’s park, he’s an unnecessary cash game spend.

Third Base Rankings

1) Josh Donaldson (TOR)

2) Nolan Arenado (COL)

3) Kyle Seager (SEA)

4) Adrian Beltre (TEX)

5) Evan Longoria (TB)

6) Jake Lamb (ARI)

Josh Donaldson (TOR) has elite splits against LHP (ISOs of .295, .353, and .333 last three seasons). Given cost, ballpark, and uncertainty around the opposing pitcher (Matt Moore had a 5.43 ERA last season but former prospect status and lofty pre-season expectations makes it difficult to set his baseline), Donaldson is best used in tournaments. The next in line options are pretty affordable (Nolan Arenado (COL), Kyle Seager (SEA)), but if you really need to save money here punt with Jake Lamb (ARI) once again. Evan Longoria (TB) is the best option in between those two price points if you find yourself in no man’s land.

Outfield Rankings

1) Nelson Cruz (SEA)

2) Giancarlo Stanton (MIA)

3) Jose Bautista (TOR)

4) Ryan Braun (MIL)

5) Denard Span (SF)

6) David Peralta (ARI)

7) Hunter Pence (SF)

8) Delino DeShields (TEX)

9) Nori Aoki (SEA)

10) Domingo Santana (MIL)

10) Steven Souza (TB) (if top five in the order)

If paying up, we have a clear affinity for Nelson Cruz (SEA) over the other options. In cash games, though, this is a good position to seek value, allowing you to pay up at the infield positions. David Peralta (ARI) once again faces a below average RHP at home and hitting in the cleanup spot, making him an excellent value at his conservative price tag around the industry. Delino DeShields (TEX) and Nori Aoki (SEA) are both leading off in Texas for two of the higher projected scoring teams on the slate. Domingo Santana (MIL) has a lot of power for a top of the lineup guy (ZiPS projects a .215 ISO and 26 HR in 570 PAs) and is worth looking at given his low salary, despite a below average matchup. On DraftKings, Seth Smith (SEA) is a phenomenal punt play almost regardless of where he hits in the lineup. He’s minimum priced and has a career .359 wOBA and .204 ISO against RHP. Socrates Brito (ARI) is once again a cap relief option as he’s expected to hit second against a RHP. In Tampa Bay, RHBs Steven Souza (TB) and Steve Pearce (TB) are potential value play options depending on lineup spots. Ideally, Souza has the better lineup spot as he’s not the same pinch hit risk that Pearce is.

Stack Rankings

Cash Game Stacks

Tier One

1) Seattle Mariners

Tier Two

2) San Francisco Giants

3) Toronto Blue Jays

4) Colorado Rockies

5) Texas Rangers

Tier Three

6) Arizona Diamondbacks

2 Comments

  1. tmhsport

    April 6, 2016 at 12:00 pm

    Thanks for taking into account some of the feedback we provided and including the positional rankings, definitely helps!

    • dinkpiece

      April 6, 2016 at 2:00 pm

      No problem. As we alluded to in the very first intro podcast – we\’re going to incorporate some tools that better helps interact with these pods. They\’re in final stages of development and we hope to have them soon.

      All of our efforts are designed to meet the majority of feedback we\’ve received on our product over the last three years.

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