Hello everyone! Welcome to the April 9 EPL DFS Picks. We’ll be going over this Saturday’s main slate once again, which includes a few prime matchups we can focus on.
Taking a look at the games:
Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth
Swansea vs. Chelsea
Watford vs. Everton
Southampton vs. Newcastle
Crystal Palace vs. Norwich City
Manchester City vs. West Brom
The obvious one that stands out in the crowd is Manchester City hosting West Brom. Manchester City broke off their cold streak last week with a dominating performance over Bournemouth and they get an easy matchup against West Brom this weekend. That game will have plenty of value. Let’s get started with the picks.
The Top Choice – Joe Hart ($3,800) – DraftKings has made a mistake on pricing a “questionable” goalkeeper once again. Joe Hart is deemed fit and should start on Saturday against West Brom. He is only $3,800 and at that price, by far the best value on the slate. He has the highest odds to win and easily the best clean sheet chances in the best matchup of the slate. He is the only option in cash games.
The Next Best – Wayne Hennessey ($4,000) – Hennessey is more expensive but will have a much lower ownership percentage and is an option in GPPs. In cash games, there is little reason to go with Hennessey over Hart, as his situation is not as good and the price is higher. With Hart’s expected ownership being way over 50%, we don’t see a reason to get funky. In GPPs, fading Hart could be a smart move for those willing to take chances, and Hennessey is an option there.
The Top Choice – Aleksandar Kolarov ($5,000) – Kolarov may not start, but I suspect he will with the rest of Manchester City’s squad having played a heavy set of games in the recent past. Kolarov is very expensive, but a home match versus West Brom will make him the top choice. His price makes him mainly a GPP option, especially with the high number of expensive plays in midfield.
The Next Best – Cedric Soares ($4,200) – Soares’ ownership has dropped a bit lately and the price has gone down. He is now priced appropriately once again and has a huge upside this weekend when he faces Newcastle at home. He should get plenty of chances to contribute to the attack and has a nice shot at a clean sheet. Use him as a primary cash option.
The Bargain – Pape Souare ($3,500) – Souare has fould ways to get involved in the attack in the past few weeks and has been sending crosses into the box regularly enough to be considered for cash games. The matchup is extremely nice, and Souare is someone who performs better at home than on the road. He is a secondary cash target.
Defender Notes: Bryan Oviedo is a cheap option if he starts and can be considered for cash games. There aren’t many cheap options at the moment, but we are hoping some value pops up that we can hit on in alerts tomorrow morning. Whoever starts at full-back for Manchester City is an option in cash and GPP. Aly Cissokho is another option for those looking at mid-range defender values. He faces Bournemouth at home and has sent 17 crosses over his last three matches.
The Top Choice – Kevin de Bruyne ($7,700) – de Bruyne has played very well since returning from injury and faces the best matchup of the weekend. Manchester City are heavy favorites and that’s a recipe for success. You will need at least one or two Manchester City players in cash games, and De Bruyne is the safest of all options. Jesus Navas is a cheaper alternative, and you can play both with confidence.
The Next Best – Yannick Bolasie ($6,300) – Recency bias present in absolutely all fantasy sports and soccer is no different. Bolasie disappointed managers last week who trusted him, but he gets a better matchup at approximately the same price this weekend. Yohan Cabaye will likely return, but that shouldn’t hurt Bolasie, who failed to register a shot in the last match. He is someone who shoots often and I expect him to get involved this weekend. He will be under owned with a number of other options in the price range and I love him in both cash and GPPs. Bakary Sako is once again a salary relief option as long as he starts.
Another One – Matt Ritchie ($6,500) – Ritchie has had two difficult matchups in recent weeks but gets the horrific Aston Villa this weekend. Even though he is away from home, I expect Bournemouth to attack for the majority of the match and Ritchie should be safe for cash games. He is on the same level as Bolasie and both can be afforded in cash games if you go with a cheap route at the forward spot.
Midfielder Notes: A lot of people seem to be on Robbie Brady but we prefer Bolasie and Ritchie in that price range and would rather leave Brady for tournaments. Sadio Mane has insane upside in a great matchup and should be a primary GPP target. Willian is expensive but can be considered in GPPs. We prefer De Bruyne in cash in that range.
The Top Choice – Sergio Aguero ($8,800) – Aguero broke his mini cold streak last game and has hat-trick potential on Saturday. He is extremely expensive, making him hard to roster in cash games, but he is a great GPP target. There isn’t a better striker playing tomorrow and Aguero should be rostered in tournaments.
The Cash Game Play – Connor Wickham ($4,000) – Wickham might not start, but if he does, he is a great candidate for cash games. He faces one of the worst teams in the league, plays at home, and is only $4,000. His fitness is questionable, so he might only go for 60 minutes, but that will be enough if he plays well. With all the value at midfield, it makes sense to roster Wickham at the forward position.
GPP Target – Graziano Pelle ($5,600) – Similarly to Mane, Pelle is in a great spot tomorrow. Southampton are favorites against Newcastle and go into this match with reason to win and I really like Pelle’s upside. He has been in great form lately, and Southampton can score when they get confident. He is a great play in qualifiers as he carries two goal upside.
Forward Notes: Chelsea’s Aleksandre Pato is an option in GPPs. I would rather not play him in cash but it’s not the end of the world if you do at that price. Romelu Lukaku is an excellent GPP target and should be extremely low owned. Jordan Ayew has been playing well and could provide a spark at $4,400. If Dwight Gayle starts for Crystal Palace, he will be a risky option that is cash playable at that price. His floor is very low, but at $3,400 in a great matchup, he can be a great play.