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August 10 MLB DFS: Logan then Logoff

Adam Hummell
August 10 MLB DFS: Logan then Logoff
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Welcome to August 10 MLB DFS action. You’ll find Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium Cliff Notes for August 10 MLB DFS along with LIVE Premium Chat. Make sure you’re using the customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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Time Stamps
00:41 
Starting Pitcher
12:59  Catcher
16:16 First Base
21:03 Second Base
24:49 Third Base
28:44 Shortstop
30:57 Outfield
35:37 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

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Range of Outcome Projections

August 10 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

Starting Pitcher

Gerrit Cole (HOU) tops the starting pitcher projections by a wide margin. Cole represents the only true ace on the slate and the Mariners have an implied run total nearly a full run lower than any other offense on the slate. Cole is a large favorite (-210) but the line feels a bit extended in the absence of Springer-Altuve-Correa (Correa may return). The Mariners aren’t exactly a great matchup as they rank 10th in wRC+ against RHP this season with a well below average K Rate (19.9 percent). The lineups they’re running out now (Zunino back, Cano gone) are a bit more strikeout friendly but they’re certainly not an easy matchup as we saw with Justin Verlander last night. The challenge is Cole is underpriced on both sites ad the high-end pitching on this slate is really limited. As a result, Cole  projects as the cash game play on both sites.

Nathan Eovaldi (BOS), Masahiro Tanaka (NYY), and Shane Bieber (CLE) make up our next tier of starters. Typically Blake Snell (TB) would also be in this group but we toned down his TBF/OUTS expectation after the Rays severely managed him in his first start back. Tanaka and Eovaldi have both flashed big upside of late and face bottom-tier offenses that are vulnerable to strikeouts. Tanaka gets the Rangers who rank 17th in wRC+ against RHP this season with the fourth highest K Rate. Eovaldi faces the Orioles who rank 24th in wRC+ against RHP with the fifth highest K Rate. These are good matchups for both but they come with annoying price tags. Eovaldi is a bit cheaper and thus the more intriguing of the two. If you simply can’t get behind Gerrit Cole in cash games, Eovaldi or Shane Bieber look like the best alternatives. Bieber is cheap and he’s facing a White Sox offense that doesn’t pose much threat from the left side. Bieber has manhandled righties this season (.288 wOBA, .098 ISO allowed with a 53.4 GB Rate) but been massacred by lefties (.397 wOBA, .257 ISO, and 35 percent GB Rate). The White Sox will likely have four lefties in their first six hitters but Moncada and Palka are the only threats and all their biggest bats come from the right side.  The White Sox rank 23rd in wRC+ against RHP with the league’s second highest K Rate. It’s a very strong matchup and the price tag is fine on DraftKings/compelling on FanDuel.

Zack Wheeler (NYM), Kenta Maeda (LAD), and Freddy Peralta (MIL) are the next tier of starters. Wheeler and Peralta have difficult price tags for upside. Wheeler has a good matchup indoors against the Marlins but is now priced over $10,000 on DraftKings. Peralta has incredible strikeout rates but doesn’t work consistently deep into games making him a risky spend at over $9,000. Both have better price tags on FanDuel, where Peralta in particular is a strong tournament target. Maeda is priced way down on both sites (around $7,000) but has a difficult matchup in Coors Field. He rates as a strong value on both sites and the Rockies have struggled offensively quite a bit this season, but we’d still prefer this exposure in tournaments as opposed to cash games.

The projections start to bunch after the third tier which makes price tags a bit more important than projection in terms of alternatives. Kevin Gausman (ATL) and Austin Gomber (STL) have mid-$6,000s price tag that make them acceptable values. Gausman’s matchup with the Brewers is a bit boom-or-bust while Gomber has a great matchup with a weak hitting Royals’ offense. The challenge is Gomber doesn’t project as a very good pitcher. In the summer months, offensive explosions often dominate GPPs so any cheap options that have a chance at high teens or low 20s can be GPP winners. This is where Gomber/Gausman fit.

Finally, the Pirates have a surprise starter in a great environment for run prevention that is hovering just above the bare minimum on DraftKings at $4,200. Clay Holmes (PIT) has been effective at AAA this season (3.43 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 24 percent K Rate) but this season is his second full season at AAA and the 25 year old isn’t much of a prospect. At the big league level, he’s struggled with command and generating swings and misses. The Giants aren’t a great matchup for strikeouts but their park helps suppress run scoring and Holmes should be stretched out (only 59 pitches last start but 99 the start before and mid 90s throughout July). Our optimals on DraftKings like Holmes as a pairing with Gerrit Cole because it really opens up offense. It’s an unnerving play but the most comfortable options on the slate are generally overpriced. A Cole-Holmes combo comes in around $16,700 whereas a Bieber-Eovaldi combo would be $18,000. They project similarly and an extra $1,300 can go a long ways on offense on this slate. The other options to get more competitive on salary and value would involve trusting volatile situations like Maeda-Gausman or a weak skilled starter like Austin Gomber that depends largely on matchup. These are viable routes as well, but they slightly trail Cole-Holmes in projection. On FanDuel, we think the decisions are a bit easier where you’re either paying up for Cole or taking a bit more salary relief with Bieber or Eovaldi as your SP1.  

Catcher

Yasmani Grandal (COL) carries the top projection at the catcher position and it’s not close. Grandal has a projection over 9 DK points tonight as he’s in Coors Field hitting from the left side of the plate. He’s been a beast vs. RHP, posting a .359 wOBA and .249 ISO since 2017. The matchup against Jon Gray isn’t great but Grandal’s context and skills as a hitter make him a worthwhile play.

If you can afford Grandal in cash games, that would be our preferred route as he’s the top value at the position despite carrying a $5k price tag. If you can’t afford him, Salvador Perez (KC) and Yadier Molina (STL) are the primary alternatives. Perez will have the platoon edge and has the requisite upside (.229 ISO vs. LHP since 2017) to be considered across all formats with a $3,700 price tag. Molina is the splits the difference option with a $4,200 price tag. He’s hitting second against Burch Smith and the worst bullpen in all of baseball.

If you need a salary relief option, we don’t mind Austin Romine (NYY). The Yankees are tied for the highest IRT (5.2) in this slate and Romine will have the platoon edge.

Evan Gattis (HOU) is an additional target to consider in tournaments. Gattis has posted a massive 38.9% HHR over the L15 days and carries plenty of power upside (.217 ISO vs. RHP since the start of last season) even against same handed pitching.

First Base

Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) and Matt Carpenter (STL) represent the top projected scorers at first base. Goldy is a strong option and a worthy spend in cash games if you can get up to him. Our optimals on DK have a lean towards Goldy as it’s going double cheap at SP. Goldy has posted a .384 wOBA and .240 ISO vs. RHP since 2017. He’ll have a matchup against Anthony DeSclafani, who’s fared much better against RHBs but has an IRTA of 4.9 as he has to pitch in hitter friendly environment (Great American Ball Park).

Goldschmidt’s main competition at the top is the aforementioned Carpenter, who’s really pricey but gets the benefit of a favorable context as well (facing Burch Smith and the Royals bullpen). Carpenter stands out as a GPP option in this slate.

You don’t have to lock Goldy in cash games. On FD, we prefer spending down for options like Logan Morrison (MIN) and C.J. Cron (TB). Morrison is just $2,200 and will have the platoon edge against Jordan Zimmermann. Morrison has generated a .259 ISO vs. RHP since 2017. Morrison is $3,500 on DK ,which earns him cash game consideration as well.

Cron gets a massive park shift in his favor going into Rogers Centre and will have a matchup against Marco Estrada, who’s exceptionally power prone (.221 ISO allowed to RHBs since 2017). Cron is also underpriced on that site ($2,800).

Even Morrison’s teammate, Joe Mauer (MIN), has made his way into some of our optimals. He’s a leadoff hitter with a $2,200 price tag on FD. You’re gaining PA equity with him but also surrendering plenty of power equity if you roster him over Morrison at the same price.

The next in line options after Goldy and Carpenter are Joey Votto (CIN) and Cody Bellinger (LAD) (1B eligible on DK). These two have favorable contexts and Votto is priced very favorably on DK ($4,100). Votto will have the platoon edge against Clay Buchholz, who’s due for some regression this season and this could be the environment (Great American Ball Park) that finally gets to him. Bellinger will have the platoon edge in Coors Field. He’s posted a .275 ISO vs. RHP since the start of last season. You can consider both of these options across all formats on DK.

Matt Olson (OAK) and Freddie Freeman (ATL) are additional power upside targets to consider in tournaments. These two will have the platoon edge in their respective matchups and Olson in particular could go very low owned in this slate.

Second Base

Gleyber Torres (NYY) is the top projected scorer at the keystone position. Torres is in Yankee Stadium facing southpaw Mike Minor. Minor has allowed a .199 ISO to RHBs since 2017 and gets another difficult environment for his fly ball tendencies. We like Torres in tournaments but he’s priced appropriately. We’ve seen some of our DK optimals go after him since it’s going double cheap at SP. If you don’t go double cheap at SP, you’ll want to save some resources at this position.

Yoan Moncada (CHW) is $3,800 on DK, which is the type of price tag we’d like to exploit in cash games. Moncada has generated a .197 ISO vs. RHP and he has some speed upside as well (11 SBs in 471 PAs this season). He get to leadoff against RHP as well and Shane Bieber hasn’t figured out how to get LHBs yet (.401 wOBA, and .242 ISO allowed this season).

Moncada has a decent price tag on FD ($3,100) as well but you could go even cheaper at the position with Daniel Descalso (ARI) as long as he gets a top six lineup spot. Descalso has been a pretty good bat with the platoon edge, generating a .349 wOBA and .180 ISO vs. RHP since the start of last season. He’s getting a big park shift in his favor going into Great American Ball Park and Anthony DeSclafani has big issues with LHBs. It’s a strong context for a hitter that’s just $2,400 on FD. The other cheap target that you can consider on that site is Neil Walker (NYY), but we prefer Descalso projected to hit sixth on the road vs. Walker projected to hit ninth at home. Kolten Wong (STL) is a viable alternative with a cheap price tag in GPPs on FD.

DJ LeMahieu (COL) has good price tags on both sites for a hitter that gets to hit second in Coors Field. We don’t love the matchup and LeMahieu isn’t an event oriented type of player but he can be considered in GPPs. Jonathan Villar (BAL) and Scooter Gennett (CIN) (on FD) are other options that warrant tournament consideration in this slate.

Third Base

Jose Ramirez (CLE) carries the top projection in the hot corner. Ramirez remains very pricey and in this slate we’re only considering him in tournaments. He’s still a very good hitter from the right side (.383 wOBA, .245 ISO vs. LHP since 2017) but he’s been more dominant from the left side (.426 wOBA, .312 ISO vs. RHP). Tonight he draws a matchup against southpaw Carlos Rodon, who’s a talented SP but has issues with walks and has allowed a .173 ISO to RHBs since 2017.

The next in line options at the position are Nolan Arenado (COL), Matt Carpenter (STL) and Justin Turner (LAD). Carpenter is now up to $5,800 on DK. That’s deserved given the way he’s hit for months now but we won’t be able to afford him in cash games. We do like him in tournaments. Arenado has a R/R matchup against Kenta Maeda. It’s in Coors Field but we prefer Arenado in tournaments as well. That leaves us with Turner, who’s by far the cheapest of the bunch on DK. He’s $4,200 on that site and while the matchup against Jon Gray isn’t great, Turner is clearly underpriced for the Coors Field bump and his favorable baselines (.351 wOBA, .177 ISO) vs. RHP. He’s a big part of roster construction on DK.

Turner is priced appropriately on FD, so we’re looking in a different direction in cash games on that site. Miguel Sano (MIN), Matt Duffy (TB) and Yandy Diaz (CLE) are our top value choices that don’t carry big price tags. Sano has turned it around some of late, generating a 26.3% HHR over the L15 days. He’s too cheap ($2,600) for the power upside he brings to the table. Duffy has the best context of the bunch as he’s in Rogers Centre facing Marco Estrada but he’s also the most expensive ($3k). Diaz has a minimum price tag on FD. He can be considered in cash games as long as he cracks a top six lineup spot.

Shortstop

Francisco Lindor (CLE) represents the top projected scorer at the shortstop position. We love Lindor’s event upside (29 HRs, 17 SBs) and he’s been a standout vs. LHP (.401 wOBA, .214 ISO since 2017). He’s very pricey but he can be considered in cash games. He’ll end up being an easier fit on DK where you could go double cheap at SP.

There’s a strong next in line option after Lindor at the position, and that’s Manny Machado (LAD). Machado has a tough R/R matchup against Jon Gray, who’s limited RHBs to a .303 wOBA and .119 ISO. Machado is getting the Coors Field bump and he has neutral splits on the whole, which keeps him in play in cash games on DK where you could afford him.

We’re going to have to look in a different direction at the position on FD where Gerrit Cole is our preferred choice at SP. Jorge Polanco (MIN) fits the slate on that site. Polanco is just $2,500 and he’s a switch hitter that gets the benefit of hitting third in the Twins lineup. He’s been a fine bat vs. RHP (.346 wOBA, .155 ISO since 2017) and gets a favorable matchup against Jordan Zimmermann, who’s allowed a .360 wOBA and .213 ISO to LHBs since the start of last season. Jose Peraza (CIN) is another viable cheap play on FD ($2,500) that gets to leadoff in an excellent hitting environment (Great American Ball Park).

If you’re paying up for a SP on DK, you could save some funds with Polanco or Peraza as well. The other alternative on that site is punting with Greg Garcia (STL). Garcia isn’t a good hitter but he gets the benefit of a favorable context (platoon edge against Burch Smith in hot weather) and has a $2,800 price tag.

Outfield

Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) is the top projected scorer in this slate regardless of hitting position. Stanton is projecting this way because he has the platoon edge, and we all know what happens when that’s the case. He’s posted a massive a .466 wOBA and .392 ISO since the start of last season. Mike Minor will be his matchup, and he has a below league average K rate (20.3%) and has allowed a 1.46 HR/9 this season. Our optimals will want you to pay up for Stanton on both sites.

Mookie Betts (BOS), Mike Trout (LAA), Charlie Blackmon (COL) and Joc Pederson (LAD) are the next in line options after Stanton. Betts and Trout are very pricey. They deserve tournament consideration on a nightly basis and tonight is no exception. In cash games, we’re siding with cheaper options like Blackmon and Pederson. Blackmon’s price tag particularly stands out on FD ($4k). He’ll have the platoon edge against Kenta Maeda, who’s a good pitcher but has allowed a .179 ISO to LHBs and has only struck out 19.7% of LHBs since 2017. Pederson is $3,400 on FD and he’ll be one of the top per dollar values in the entire slate as long as he’s in the leadoff spot in Coors Field. If you go double cheap at SP on DK, you’ll have an opportunity to roster three expensive OF options. This is a very enticing route in GPPs.

Kevin Kiermaier (TB) is a value option that stands out around the industry. He’s $3,700 on DK, which is a good price tag, but he’s just $2,500 on FD which really stands out. Kiermaier will be leading off against Marco Estrada in Rogers Centre. Cody Bellinger (LAD) and A.J. Pollock (ARI) are additional options with strong price tags on FD ($3,600 and $3,400 respectively). Both of these hitters get an opportunity to hit in much better hitting environments than they’re accustomed to. Sticking to FD, Carlos Gonzalez (COL) is just $3,300 and will have the platoon edge in Coors Field. Steven Souza (ARI) and Aaron Hicks (NYY) are viable options in the $4k range on DK. Souza has posted a .338 wOBA and .218 ISO vs. RHP while Hicks has been an elite bat vs. LHP (.394 wOBA, .266 ISO since 2017). If you spend up at SP on DK, those are the type of options you’ll be forced to consider. David Peralta (ARI) is a one-off that we like in GPPs on both sites. He’ll be able to take advantage of Anthony DeSclafani‘s wide splits. He’s so expensive on DK ($5,500) that he’ll have a chance to have really muted ownership despite the slam dunk context.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are a more potent offense against RHP and get the big park upgrade in Coors Field but also have to face Jon Gray who has been phenomenal since returning from a brief trip to the minors (four straight starts of seven innings or more and two earned runs or less). Gray has incredible stuff and he’s actually been better at home (4.58 ERA) than on the road (4.88) this season but lefties have given him some problems (.330 wOBA, .213 ISO allowed this season) and the Dodgers should be able to load up on lefties. The slate has too much offense in too many different spots to stack in cash games but they rate as our highest upside stack on the slate.

Tier Two

2) Colorado Rockies

3) Boston Red Sox

4) Arizona Diamondbacks

The second tier of stacks all have ratings that would typically fall into the first tier of stacks but are solidly behind the Dodgers. The Rockies lefties are intriguing stack targets given Kenta Maeda has allowed a lot of power to LHBs in recent years (.179 ISO allowed since 2017 despite pitching most of his games in a park that limits power). The challenge for the full stack is Story-Arenado are priced up and Maeda has been quite tough on lefties. Throw in a good pen behind Maeda and you can understand why the Rockies fall behind the Dodgers.

The Rockies rate ahead of the Red Sox but the Red Sox are a bit more compelling as a full stack because of price tags and the guaranteed ninth inning on the road. They’ll also face a wide platoon splits starter in Dylan Bundy and we imagine the hefty price tags on the Red Sox primary bats will keep overall ownership down on a slate with so many good OF plays.

The Diamondbacks also face a RHP that has shown really wide platoon splits. Arizona’s best hitters (Pollock/Goldschmidt) won’t benefit but all the pieces around them should as Anthony DeSclafani has allowed a ridiculous .643 slugging percentage to lefties this season. David Peralta is particularly interesting as a power one-off even if you get away from the stack.

Tier Three

5) New York Yankees

6) Cleveland Indians

7) St. Louis Cardinals

Mike Minor has been surprisingly good this season as a starter but he’s vulnerable to RH power. The Yankees are light on it without Sanchez/Judge but the Stanton/Torres/Andujar trio is intriguing as a mini-stack. The depth of the stack gets dinged a bit because Minor’s been pretty good against lefties (though vulnerable to power!).

Cleveland will rate as one of our top stacks throughout the weekend as they’re a road team in a good park against a bad bullpen but Carlos Rodon is the White Sox best starter and Cleveland’s offense is harder to stack against LHP because of the platoon guys that bring PH risk.

The Cardinals are definitely a contrarian target on this slate as the offense isn’t quite the same tier as these others but gets the benefit of a DH against a very bad pitching staff. Burch Smith has allowed a 40+ percent hard hit rate this season.

Tier Four

8) Minnesota Twins

9) Los Angeles Angels

10) Tampa Bay Rays

11) Milwaukee Brewers

The final tier is very contrarian on this slate with all the deep offenses. Of this group, Minnesota is the most intriguing because they’re also very cheap and on the road in Detroit against a pitcher allowing plenty of power (even in a revitalized season). The cheap stack helps compliment more expensive stacks or high end pitching in GPPs.