Welcome to August 10 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for August 10 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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August 10 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:40 Starting Pitcher
15:42 First Base
19:36 Second Base
22:33 Third Base
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
August 10 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
Thursday’s slate is loaded with high-end SP options as once again many of the top starters seem bunched on the same slate. Yu Darvish (LAD) tops our projections with a favorable matchup against a RH heavy Diamondbacks lineup that is also strikeout prone. Even though Arizona is a tough pitching environment, it represents a league shift upgrade for Darvish. The implied total against (4.2 runs) is higher than all of the counterparts on this slate but we have Darvish projected for over a strikeout more than all his opponents. The price is also a bit softer than the top tier starters on both sites, which makes Darvish a compelling spend. We have Darvish slightly ahead of the next tier which includes Jacob deGrom (NYM) and James Paxton (SEA). Paxton comes with the lowest implied run total (3.1) on the slate but faces an Angels’ lineup that historically doesn’t strikeout much. Paxton is also pricey. He’s the second most expensive pitcher on both sites and he figures to be popular with no other options having an implied run total within half a run. We think Paxton is a viable cash game target, but this feels like a good spot to take an underweight position in GPPs against a low volume strikeout matchup. Jacob deGrom faces a Phillies lineup that ranks 23rd in wRC+ against RHP with an above average K Rate (23.2 percent). On both sites, deGrom is the highest priced player which makes him a difficult spend with Yu Darvish carrying a stronger projection at a cheaper price. We do like deGrom’s upside over Paxton if choosing between the two in tournaments.
The next tier down is still loaded with strikeout artists. Danny Salazar (CLE) and Brad Peacock (HOU) draw favorable matchups against the Rays (fifth in wRC+ against RHP, but the second highest K Rate at 25 percent) and the White Sox (28th in wRC+ with a 22.9 K Rate). Salazar has been spectacular since returning from his minor league stint and now he faces a struggling Rays’ offense (four runs in their last five games) in a park that suppresses his biggest weakness: home runs. Salazar is priced up for his recent performance and given the inconsistent history it’s difficult to choose him over the more consistent options priced around him; however, if you choose to weight recent performance heavily he’s certainly in the conversation. We prefer the upside Salazar possesses in tournaments. Brad Peacock faces the White Sox who still project as one of the weakest offenses in the league even with better performances the last two nights. Peacock has dominated RHBs this season (.245 wOBA, .080 ISO, 32.6 K Rate, 49 percent GB Rate, and just a 24.5 hard hit rate allowed). The White Sox have gotten up to 5-6 LHBs of late but their two biggest threats are both from the right side (Abreu/Garcia). Most importantly for Peacock, he’s cheaper than the rest of these high end starters. This makes him a viable pairing with a stud at $9,500 on DraftKings and a viable pivot on FanDuel at just $8,300.
While the starting pitcher options are deep up top, there isn’t a ton of exciting value on the cheap end. Sonny Gray (NYY) is the next highest projected starter but is largely priced out and doesn’t have the kind of high end upside to challenge the other starters for GPPs. The best value on DraftKings is a very cheap Jason Hammel (KC) getting the benefit of a league shift against the Cardinals. Then there are a few mid-tier targets like Tanner Roark (WAS), Tyler Skaggs (LAA), Zach Davies (MIL), and Lance Lynn (STL). All of these feel like viable options to mix in for salary relief in tournaments, but not primary targets. In cash games, we’d prefer to focus on the high end pitching targets even on multiple starting pitcher sites like DraftKings.
Gary Sanchez (NYY) is the top projected scorer at the catcher position and he’s also the best value at the position. The price tags are reachable on both sites, but it’s on FD where $3,200 feels light. You’re not paying $11k for any pitcher in this slate on that site, which gives you the opportunity to roster Sanchez. The upside here is tantalizing against Marco Estrada in Rogers Centre.
If you’re for a cheaper catcher to play in cash games, Austin Barnes (LAD) with the platoon edge fits the bill on both sites. Barnes gives you access to a Dodgers offense in Chase Field with a IRT of 5.3 runs, and we have a cool .166 ISO for him in this split. His ISO has been better than our baseline albeit in a smaller sample – .250 ISO in 113 career PAs vs. LHP. Jason Castro (MIN) is a decent target on DK should you need a little bit more relief at the position.
Russell Martin (TOR) is a fine target in tournaments but the matchup against Sonny Gray and an incredible Yankees pen makes him more of a secondary target in that format. Manny Pina (MIL) can be included in Brewers stacks in tournaments (26.9% HHR over the L15).
It’s Eric Thames (MIL) night once again. It’s very unusual that you see a first baseman with this sort of power upside hitting leadoff, and Thames gets another perfect matchup against Kyle Gibson. Gibson doesn’t miss bats (13.8% K rate vs. the last 537 LHBs he’s faced), and he’s allowed a .384 wOBA and .186 ISO to LHBs since 2016. Thames has very light price tags around the industry – his ownership will be massive tonight and for obvious reasons. We’re making this play with confidence in all formats.
On DK, you’re able to roster Thames in the OF and use Chris Davis (BAL) as a source of salary relief. Davis is just $3,000 on that site and while the ballpark in Oakland represents a negative park shift, he’s facing Chris Smith. In five appearances, Smith has generated a 13% K rate. He also doesn’t keep the ball in the ground much (39% GB rate in those appearances – 42.8% in 15 games at AAA this season). It’s the matchup you want for Davis.
The rest of the position can be used as pivots in tournaments from a chalky Eric Thames. Ryan Zimmerman (WSH) and Edwin Encarnacion (CLE) represent the better pivots for upside with good matchups. Lucas Duda (TB) is another target you can consider though the matchup is much tougher (Danny Salazar, who’s pitched great since being activated from the DL). Yuli Gurriel (HOU) with the platoon edge in a good hitting environment should also be considered though his price tags are starting to get a bit uncomfortable. We prefer him on FD where he’s $3,700.
Jose Altuve (HOU) is the second highest projected scorer in this slate as he gets the platoon edge in Guaranteed Rate Field, home of the Chicago White Sox. Altuve has generated a .409 wOBA and .193 ISO vs. LHP – he’s a monster, particularly with the platoon edge. You can make this play on FD, but the $5,500 price tag on DK is too steep to play in cash games.
The position also has some opportunity cost to it, which is a reason why on DK you could look toward the punt options. Logan Forsythe (LAD) is $3,100 and he’s a very good hitter vs. LHP as well. It’s also a big park shift for him and the entire Dodgers offense. Neil Walker (NYM) has been ice cold of late, but he’s a $2,700 middle infielder that usually hits in the middle of the lineup (this matchup is on the road as well and an upgrade in hitting environment). and has pop from the left side of the plate (.180 ISO). It’s also a matchup that enhances upside as Vince Velasquez is very power prone (1.77 HR/9 this season, backed up by a massive 23% hard minus soft hit rate). Walker is your best source of salary relief at the position on FD as well ($2,600).
Chris Taylor (LAD) has been on a tear of late (averaging nearly 11 DK points over his L10 games), but now the price tag is beyond full on both sites as he’s priced close to Altuve. As the road leadoff hitter in Chase Field, we think Taylor should be considered in tournaments along with Daniel Murphy (WSH) and Jonathan Schoop (BAL) (higher HHRs for those two over the L15).
Justin Turner (LAD) represents the top projected scorer at third base. His price tags are fine around the industry, but our focus is to save a little bit of salary at the position in cash games. From a tournament perspective, you can fire away. Turner has been on a roll (four HRs over his L4 games) and gets the platoon edge in great hitting environment.
If Travis Shaw (MIL) is in the lineup (dealing with personal issue), he’d represent a great target over on FD where the price tag is sitting at $3,300. With the platoon edge in a strong matchup, you can make this play with confidence in cash games. Shaw is having a terrific season and while the home run totals are a bit inflated (24% HR/FB), he’s been more quality contact this season (37.8% HHR according to fangraphs). If you needed to save a little more money on FD, Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) is a fine drop down target at $2,800.
Logan Forsythe (LAD) is 3B eligible on DK and our best value in the middle infield on that site.
Matt Chapman (OAK) doesn’t get a good lineup spot, but he’s really cheap ($2,300) on DK and gets a matchup against the subpar Wade Miley. Teammate Ryon Healy (OAK) is a bit more expensive ($3,500) but he usually hits third or cleanup vs. LHP.
Miguel Sano (MIN) and Josh Donaldson (TOR) are upside targets that you can consider in tournaments. The price tag on Donaldson is light on DK ($4,100), especially after his resurgence of late (35.5% HHR over the L15).
Marwin Gonzalez (HOU) is the top projected scorer at the shortstop position. He’s a better target in tournaments with appropriate price tags around the industry.
Our goal at the position is to save salary and use that salary elsewhere. Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) and Marcus Semien (OAK) represent the best point per dollar targets at the position on DK where their price tags are in the mid $3,000s. Both of these infielders usually hit second in their respective lineups, and they have matchups with built in upside (Cabrera is facing Vince Velasquez, Semien gets Wade Miley). If you needed more salary relief, Tyler Saladino (CWS) is $2,500 on DK is fine even though he’s not a good hitter.
George Springer (HOU) is the top projected scorer in this slate regardless of position. Springer is pricey on DK, but surprisingly affordable on FD where he’s $4,000. In this context, it’ll be a challenge to get away from Springer’s massive projection. Following Springer is Aaron Judge (NYY), who’s a strong target in tournaments vs. a power prone pitcher in Rogers Centre. Eric Thames (MIL) is OF eligible on DK. You’re either playing him at 1B or in the OF on that site at an affordable price.
Yoenis Cespedes (NYM) in a perfect matchup for his power upside and in a good hitting environment, Max Kepler (MIN) with the platoon edge on the road in a much better hitting environment than his home park, Kike Hernandez (LAD) minimum priced on FD and he will have the platoon edge (.390 wOBA, .278 ISO vs. LHP since 2015), Jose Bautista (TOR) with a $3,500 price tag and Corey Dickerson (TB) with a $3,400 price tag on DK represent some of our best OF values. Clint Frazier (NYY) is our best value at the position on FD where he’s just $2,700, but he was scratched from the lineup last night with an oblique issue. If he’s back in the lineup and hitting second he’s simply too cheap on FD. Michael Conforto (NYM) is a more expensive target but the price tag is warranted. Conforto has generated a 35.3% HHR over the L15 and he’s a road leadoff hitter. He’s reachable on DK where he’s $4,700.
Bryce Harper (WSH) is facing Dan Straily, a fly ball pitcher that struggles to keep the ball in the park. We don’t need many reasons to justify Harper in tournaments, but this is certainly a nice matchup for upside.
1) Los Angeles Dodgers
2) Houston Astros
3) Milwaukee Brewers
4) New York Yankees
Price is going to dictate stack ownership a bit on this slate because of all of the high end pitching. The Astros, Yankees, and Dodgers are all in great spots and individual pieces will carry hefty ownership but if you can find a cheap SP you’re comfortable with OR a salary relief piece or two from the lineup, the overall stack ownership should be lighter.
5) New York Mets
6) Baltimore Orioles
7) Washington Nationals
8) Minnesota Twins
The Mets are the strong cheap stack that floods a lot of optimals with expensive SPs. They’re on the road and in a good offensive environment but against a pitcher with good stuff and a pretty weak bullpen. It’s not the best spot in the world but our projections likely will prefer them more than the field making them our favorite stack.
The other affordable contrarian stack to consider on this slate is the Athletics. They have a lot of power-speed combinations that hit LHP a bit better than RHP and in a bad ballpark they’ll come with the usual low ownership.