Welcome to August 11 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for August 11 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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August 11 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
01:01 Starting Pitcher
11:09 First Base
13:44 Second Base
17:05 Third Base
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
August 11 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
Rich Hill (LAD) is over the blister issues that plagued him to begin the season. He’s now struck out at least 7 batters in 7 of 8 starts. He hasn’t replicated last year’s high GB rate, which introduces some HR allowed risk, but a lot of that is mitigated in a phenomenal matchup against a Padres team ranking dead last in wRC+ against LHP with a high 25.3 K%. Hill has incredible Vegas odds, marked as a -380 favorite with just a 2.9 IRTA. He’s particularly a strong value on DK.
Hill is pretty expensive on DK, but there are enough hitter values in cash games that it’s possible to fit him alongside our second best SP on the slate – Carlos Carrasco (CLE). Carrasco has upped his K% from 25% a year ago to 26.8%, adding to his DFS value. He’s in an excellent matchup to increase his Ks. The Rays possess the third highest K% against RHP in MLB. Pitching in Tampa Bay is also a positive park upgrade for Carrasco, who can match Hill’s K upside and may have more longevity, but also carries more run prevention risk.
One of the reasons you may want to pay up for the Hill-Carrasco combo is risk among the mid-tier starting pitchers, but John Lackey (CHC) pops as a strong value in our projections. A 4.6 IRTA in Arizona means there’s some risk on the run preventions side, but a decent K rate, ability to pitch deep into games, and an Arizona opponent that will swing and miss a bunch against RHP gives Lackey a 6.0 K projection. Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) is a similar matchup to Lackey. The Yankees bring run prevention risk but also have plenty of strikeouts in their lineup. We prefer the exposure to Lackey and Rodriguez in tournaments over cash games. On FanDuel, the pricing on Hill and Carrasco is soft enough to consider Hill the core cash game play and Carrasco the primary tournament pivot
Secondary tournament plays include: Jimmy Nelson (MIL) and then any cheap SP that has some strikeout upside like Anibal Sanchez (DET), Mike Foltynewicz (ATL), Seth Lugo (NYM), or Nick Pivetta (PHI). We’re not particularly excited about these targets but they’re cheap enough to consider as viable mix-in targets on mass multi entry.
A smattering of top pitchers keeps us looking towards salary relief once again at catcher. On DraftKings, Russell Martin (TOR) and Buster Posey (SF) seemingly fit that mold, priced below $4,000 as our top per dollar plays. Martin will draw a more difficult matchup with Jameson Taillon, but he does provide some additional savings. Posey is the more intriguing play, and the better player overall – but depending on how you load up with starting pitching on this slate, there are questions about how valuable his $3,800 tag is. Edwin Jackson though has been Edwin Jackson-like (5.31xFIP, 2.48 HR/9).
The pair rate well on FanDuel too, but we might be looking to their cheaper counterparts like Travis d’Arnaud (NYM), Victor Martinez (DET) (FD only), and Austin Barnes (LAD). A group that lags behind from a talent perspective, the trio is much cheaper. d’Arnaud comes with a bad lineup spot but will get the power prone Nick Pivetta. Barnes will draw the platoon edge on Clayton Richard, and V-Mart is getting Kyle Gibson and a team total of 5.5 runs.
Do not adjust your eyes, Chris Davis (BAL) and Eric Thames (MIL) are again near the top of the first base model. Chris Davis, yes, the Chris Davis with a .285 ISO against RHP since 2015 is just $2,900 on DraftKings. Yes, $2,900, below $3,000. There is a chance that an amalgamation of DailyRoto content providers would cost more than $2,900 on DraftKings. Davis’ struggles are with the strikeout, yet, he draws a matchup with Paul Blackburn that brings about an opposing strikeout rate of just 9.7%. Lock and load.
Thames has been near and dear to our hearts and has seen a recent price depression on both sites. The matchup again behooves him, as Homer Bailey has been a shell of what he once was, allowing 1.48 HR/9 and seeing a strong dip to 12.3% K%. While he isn’t the value that David provides on DraftKings, he’s just $2,800 on FanDuel, the complementary value on that site.
There are a handful of other really strong values at the position. Eric Hosmer (KC) draws Reynaldo Lopez, and he gets a strong park shift in his favor moving to Guaranteed Rate Field. Miguel Cabrera (DET) has dipped in terms of production, but his salary has remained stagnant and cheap. Jose Abreu (CHW), Hanley Ramirez (BOS), and Albert Pujols (LAA) are all priced just in between this group and all rate well from a per dollar perspective as well.
Neil Walker (NYM) slid up to the second spot in the Mets lineup last night, and is again priced at under $3,000 on DraftKings. His matchup with Nick Pivetta brings out the best in opposing hitter upside, as Pivetta struggles with the long ball and Walker is best suited for that from the left-side. Since 2015, he’s posted a .179 ISO against RHP. In order to try and utilize the top starting pitching on the slate, taking advantage of a price tag like Walker’s is necessary.
Walker is the cheap option, but Brian Dozier (MIN) leads the way in terms of raw projection. The matchup with Anibal Sanchez provides the potential for plenty of power upside (2.47 HR/9) and Dozier is coming with a positive delta in Hard%. To be a bit site specific, Daniel Murphy (WSH) is a part of the top implied run total on the slate. He’s just $3,500 on FanDuel and comes with great recent batted ball data. Chris Stratton has struggled in all facets (5.42xFIP, 13.8% K%, 13.8% BB%) and Murphy holds an accessible price tag. Jason Kipnis (CLE) is back near the top of the Indians lineup and is just $2,600 on FanDuel. If trying to be cheap on DraftKings, Joe Panik (SF), Tyler Saladino (CHW), and Rougned Odor (TEX) fit the mold.
Miguel Sano (MIN) is the top third base option on the slate. He’s been great against same-handed pitching, posting a .235 ISO against RHP since 2015. The struggle for Sano is his inability to make contact (35.7% K% in that same time against RHP), luckily, Sanchez has a sub-20% K% and has been great for opposing power.
Mike Moustakas (KC) is $3,800 on DraftKings and will draw a matchup with Reynaldo Lopez, a young highly touted right-handed pitcher. While we expect good things from Lopez, we’re looking to take advantage of the platoon edge for Moustakas and the park upgrade in his favor. Logan Forsythe (LAD) is $3,400 on DraftKings and will get the platoon edge on Clayton Richard. Forsythe has been great against LHP in recent years and despite less than stellar batted ball data he gets you access to the Dodgers team with a 5.6 implied run total. Kris Bryant (CHC) rates well on both sites, but his price is a bit too much to consider despite a park upgrade in his favor against Taijuan Walker. Matt Chapman (OAK) and Pablo Sandoval (SF) are another pair of absurdly cheap options on DraftKings.
Shortstop doesn’t have much to offer on this slate, so instead we’re focusing on lineup spot and price tag. On DraftKings, it’s Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) and Tyler Saladino (CHW) that stand out, and not because of their abilities. Cabrera has been on the bench in his last two games, but in his last start hit second against a RHP. Add in the park boost and some good recent batted ball data and Cabrera is a perfectly suitable option at $3,500 on DraftKings. Saladino is even worse, but hit second in his last start against a LHP. He’s just $2,600 on DraftKings and is a potentially vital part in spending up at other positions. Freddy Galvis (PHI), Paul DeJong (STL), and Marcus Semien (OAK) are another trio of options at the position. Galvis should find himself in a good park and a good lineup spot, Semien will draw a second place lineup spot against Ubaldo Jimenez and is only second to Paul DeJong as far as upside potential.
Yoenis Cespedes (NYM) and Jim Adduci (DET) are completely different breeds, but among the most valuable per dollar plays in the outfield on this slate. Cespedes will get the oft-mentioned matchup with Pivetta, and is one of the cheaper ways to get exposure to the Mets offense. Adduci is one of the few Tigers we’ve mentioned in the positional analysis, getting the second spot of the lineup in a matchup with Kyle Gibson. Gibson allows a ton of hard contact (36.4% via FanGraphs), and has been unable to miss bats and has struggled with the long ball as well. It’s no surprise that Mike Trout (LAA) is one of the best plays on the slate, as he comes with the highest raw projection, but he’s among the top per dollar plays as well. George Springer (HOU) is back in the Astros lineup, and his price hasn’t readjusted to his event upside. Jarrett Parker (SF) has hit third in each of his last two starts against RHP. Moving away from his home park is an upgrade in any capacity, and he’s also picking up a matchup with Edwin Jackson at $3,200 on DraftKings and $2,500 on FanDuel.
Eric Thames (MIL) holds OF eligibility on DraftKings. Mark Trumbo (BAL), Kyle Schwarber (CHC), and Denard Span (SF) fall just behind this group of outfielders as far as per dollar value. We’ve touched on Schwarber and Span’s matchup, but Trumbo too will be able to take advantage of a matchup which suits him (Blackburn doesn’t K anyone). The lineup spot fluctuates, but it’s manageable for $2,900 on FanDuel $3,300 on DraftKings.
1) New York Mets
2) Chicago Cubs
3) Kansas City Royals
4) Washington Nationals
On the strength of another road matchup against a below average Phillies’ starter and a bad bullpen, the relatively cheap Mets once again rank as a top stack target. They’ll likely carry more ownership than last night after paying off cheap tags but they once again fit the slate. The Royals are an interesting pivot with a ballpark bump and a White Sox bullpen that is dreadful. It’s likely our model is slightly undervaluing the Nationals stack as a whole. The lower quality of bats near the top of the lineup plus the really big park adjustments can sometimes be undervalued. The Nats have the highest implied total on the slate and are expensive which might keep ownership in check on a slate with more high-end SP than mid-tier or cheap SP.
5) Baltimore Orioles
6) Los Angeles Dodgers
7) Houston Astros
8) Minnesota Twins
9) Milwaukee Brewers
The second tier is a bit more difficult to attack. The Twins have power upside against Anibal Sanchez and a bad bullpen with accessible price tags. The Orioles are relatively cheap on DraftKings but Blackburn’s sinker isn’t as ideal to attack in a big park. There are some mild opportunities for low-owned stacks in bad parks like Baltimore and Minnesota but we like this tier more for one-off targets. The Astros figure to carry as much upside as the first tier but are also expensive and we expect will carry similar ownership. They are further down our priority list even in a good matchup against a fading SP.