Welcome to August 13 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for August 11 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS | HITTER SPLITS | PITCHER SPLITS | SORTABLE STATS | PITCHER TRENDS | LINEUPS | LEADERS
August 13 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:50 Starting Pitcher
10:11 First Base
12:56 Second Base
15:05 Third Base
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
August 13 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
Corey Kluber (CLE) dominates the Sunday slate with a favorable matchup against the struggling and strikeout prone Rays’ offense. Kluber has struck out double digit batters in 10 of 11 games and struck out 35 percent or more batters in all eleven games. It’s a remarkable run for Kluber that challenges Clayton Kershaw from a DFS perspective and now he gets a park upgrade against a strikeout friendly opponent. The price tag on Kluber is appropriate on both sites for a normal ace and Kluber has simply not been a normal ace.
On DraftKings, it’s possible to pair with Kluber with an expensive Michael Wacha (STL) in a favorable matchup against the Braves. This is our preferred route. Wacha comes with the only other implied total against that is below four runs on the slate and he comes in great form. Over the last five starts, Wacha has a .262 wOBA against and he’s generated a K Rate above 20 percent in seven straight starts and above 25 percent in five of the last seven starts. While the Braves have improved with Freddie Freeman‘s return, they rank 26th in wRC+ over the last 30 days.
The slate is not deep with starting pitching options. If you veer off from Kluber and Wacha you’re venturing into cheap risky options that are simply meant to complement stacks with Kluber.
The options are more about price tag and potential paths to cheap strikeouts than compelling matchups. R.A. Dickey (ATL), Sal Romano (CIN), and Christopher Flexen (NYM) fit this mold. German Marquez (COL) is the most talented starter and getting a nice park upgrade but the Marlins aren’t a particularly elite matchup and Marquez comes with a more mid-tier price tag ($7,400). Marquez is the most stable option of this group, but Flexen is perhaps the most intriguing for GPPs with a favorable matchup against the Phillies and an intriguing minor league profile even if he’s struggled at the big league level.
On FD, Buster Posey (SF) is our clear-cut top value. He’s priced in line with the average cost of a roster spot after sliding in Kluber. It’s possible the low tag is a result of an expected matchup against Max Scherzer (.213 wOBA allowed to RHBs since 2015) that has turned out to be a much juicier matchup against AJ Cole (.298 wOBA, .162 ISO).
If you want to full punt on FD, Travis d’Arnaud (NYM) and the Mets have one of our favorite matchups to exploit – playing against Zach Eflin who allows tons of balls in play, but fails to limit either fly ball or hard hit contact.
The conversation is completely different on DK. There the Astros-Rangers game is included, and one way to get access to an Astros team with a slate high 6 IRT is through Brian McCann (HOU). There are some issues here – lineup spot and terrible 15-day Hard% – but there’s not much opportunity cost. If you want to avoid such a cold hitter, you could simply punt with someone like Raffy Lopez (TOR), who hit fifth yesterday and should start against a RHP with Russell Martin on the DL. Lopez is the stone cold minimum on DK so that opens up a lot of flexibility elsewhere. Posey is underpriced there as well and a secondary option.
Eric Thames (MIL) continues to destroy the Red and is a phenomenal play yet again facing Sal Romano (5.19 xFIP). He’s an outlier plus value on FD, but on DK pricing is so loose that Thames at $4,200 could actually be considered on the expensive end.
He’s still not difficult to fit, but there are cheap options that are either underpriced, in a good context, or both. Jose Abreu (CHW) has a home matchup against Jason Vargas, who despite a strong season on the surface (3.40 ERA) is a plus matchup in Chicago. For starters, Vargas’ xFIP is nearly a 1.5 run higher. Secondly, this park won’t due his fly ball oriented skill set any favors (38.6 GB rate).
Miguel Cabrera (DET) is astonishingly less than $3,000. He has a negative Hard% delta and a disappointing .154 ISO on the season. It’s concerning and he’s not a must play as a result, but the tag is egregious at the end of the day given his longer term history, lineup spot, and mediocre opposing pitcher (with a bad bullpen).
Jonathan Villar (MIL) has taken a big step back from last year, but he’s still event oriented (9 HRs, 20 SBs) and should see some positive BABIP normalization. We’ll have to make sure he’s still hitting atop the lineup post the Neil Walker trade.
If you want to pay up, Jose Altuve (HOU) and Brian Dozier (MIN) are your best options. Altuve is having another stellar season combining power and speed with an elite batting average. Dozier is a lefty masher (.369 wOBA, .256 ISO since 2015) facing southpaw Matt Boyd, a wild pitcher who allows plenty of hard hit aerial contact.
Third base is a good spot to make a big spend. Miguel Sano (MIN) has a power skill set that meshes well with Boyd’s weaknesses. Sano’s .241 ISO is driven by an elevated 45.5 FanGraphs Hard% and sub-1 GB/FB ratio.
The next in line option is Travis Shaw (MIL), whose breakout season continues: .380 wOBA, .255 ISO. He’s the same cost as Sano on DK but will save you several hundred dollars on FD.
In our most recent updates, Sean Rodriguez (PIT) received a huge bump in his ISO baseline. He has a .359 wOBA and .195 ISO against LHP since 2015. Opposing pitcher JA Happ has had an issue with the long ball this season, allowing 1.54 HR/90.
Jose Ramirez (CLE) is an interesting tournament pivot who should fly under the radar in ownership.
Marwin Gonzalez (HOU) is an excellent expensive GPP play on DK. It gets you access to the high team total on the slate. Additionally, Gonzalez receives a positive park shift playing in Texas, has a positive 15-day Hard% delta, and faces Andrew Cashner (5.19 xFIP).
Unfortunately, he’s overpriced for cash games there and not in the FD slate. Jose Reyes (NYM) would be an excellent value on both sites if he hits second again in place of the traded Neil Walker. It’s the easiest way to get exposure against Zach Eflin, who has allowed a .385 wOBA and .275 ISO to LHBs over his short career. Teammate Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) is usable on DK as well.
Eduardo Escobar (MIN) is a universal pivot off of Reyes if he doesn’t wind up in the lineup spot we hope. Escobar hit clean up the last time the Twins faced a LHP and should have a top five lineup spot again. The Twins have a 5.2 IRT against Detroit.
Brandon Crawford (SF) is an excellent tournament pivot as he has the power you’re looking for in that format, putting up a .178 ISO against RHP since 2015.
Where Eric Thames (MIL) is OF eligible on DraftKings, he’s a top outfield value but is quickly followed by Lorenzo Cain (KC), Curtis Granderson (NYM), and Starling Marte (PIT). Cain will be the outfielder taking advantage of a top implied run total (5.6) against Derek Holland. Although not a “bopper,” Cain has been more than serviceable against LHP, posting a .221 ISO and .385 wOBA against southpaws since 2015. Add in Derek Holland‘s struggles with the long ball (1.98 HR/9) and you’re providing the best context for a high upside Cain game. Teammate Melky Cabrera (KC) is a secondary value on both sites.
Granderson has led off in each of his last two starts, and should he find himself there again tonight he’s a great value against Zach Eflin, particularly on FanDuel at $2,700. A park shift in his favor, plus home run struggles and the inability to strike out bats for Eflin makes Granderson a superb per dollar value. Marte is perhaps a bit more valuable on DraftKings at $3,500 but is getting a park upgrade, plus will hold the platoon edge on J.A. Happ.
Marte has the platoon edge against JA Happ and receives a large positive park shift hitting in Toronto. Marte’s teammate Andrew McCutchen (PIT) is more expensive and tougher to squeeze into Kluber lineups in cash games. However, he historically has had more success against LHP, posting a .400 wOBA and .255 ISO since 2015.
Yoenis Cespedes (NYM) and Michael Conforto (NYM) rank in the top ten in per dollar value and will take advantage of the same matchup as previously noted with Granderson. Jarrett Parker (SF) has moved into the third spot in the lineup against RHP, and should be there once again against A.J. Cole. Any time the Giants move away from their home park they are getting a notable park upgrade, and Parker brings considerable power upside for real cheap.
Ryan Braun (MIL) gets lost in the shuffle a bit due to a R/R matchup and a high price tag, but his monstrous 38.9 15-day Hard% and awesome contextual factors outside of lacking the platoon edge make him an ideal tournament target.
1) Houston Astros (DraftKings specific)
The Astros-Rangers game is only available on DraftKings but the Astros rate as our top stack in a favorable matchup against Cashner. Cashner has been able to generate lots of ground balls against RHBs which neutralizes some of the stronger matchups but still projects well below average with the Astros getting a big park shift.
2) New York Mets
3) Milwaukee Brewers
4) Cincinnati Reds
The Mets continue to rate well in favorable matchups against the Phillies below average pitching staff. Zach Eflin has been extremely vulnerable to LHBs making him a particularly strong matchup for the Mets offense to attack. The Brewers-Reds game is another potential spot to attack with two below average starters in a plus offensive environment. The Brewers are particularly cheap on FanDuel making them a compelling potential stack with elite starting pitching.
5) Kansas City Royals
6) Washington Nationals
7) Minnesota Twins
The Twins are our favorite third tier stack with a favorable matchup against a below average/fly-ball oriented starter backed up by a terrible Tigers bullpen. The Twins best power hitters are stronger against LHP and a bit expensive which may keep ownership more neutralized. The cheaper complementary parts also make the entire stack more viable.