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August 14 MLB DFS: Charlie the Unicorn
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Welcome to August 14 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for August 14 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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August 14 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:45 Starting Pitcher
10:11 Catcher
12:30 First Base
15:07 Second Base
17:32 Third Base
20:28 Shortstop
22:37 Outfield
27:38 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

August 14 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

 Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

Jose Quintana (CHC) tops the starting pitcher rankings on Monday’s evening slate. Quintana gets a Reds’ offense that is neutralized a bit against LHP (20th in wRC+ with a league average K Rate) and getting a meaningful park downgrade. We’re guessing on the overnight total but with a crosswind at Wrigley and neutral temperatures we’re expecting Quintana will check in with the lowest implied total against. He’s priced up on DraftKings ($11,600) where he’s a more questionable spend but on FanDuel ($8,400) he’s severely underpriced and our favorite SP target on the slate.

Zack Greinke (ARI) checks in a bit behind Quintana in the projections. A matchup with the potent Astros’ offense (first in wRC+ against RHP with the lowest K Rate against in the league at 17.3 percent) keeps the projection in check. Greinke gets a little bit of a pricing discount on DraftKings ($10,800) but he still rates firmly behind Quintana from a value perspective.

There are three different price tiers to consider for cash games at SP and choosing one from each tier is a viable route. In the “mid-tier” Jerad Eickhoff (PHI) and Kevin Gausman (BAL) are the two strongest targets in the $8,000-$8,500 price range. Eickhoff gets a big park shift in his favor and a much stronger matchup against the Padres (24th in wRC+ against RHP, 25.2 percent K Rate). The Padres are also a good fit for Eickhoff’s wide platoon splits as they’ve been routinely running out a maximum of three LHBs against RHP of late. Eickhoff has held RHBs to a paltry .268 wOBA and .146 ISO in his career with good peripherals to back it up (24.7 K Rate and 5.2 BB Rate). Gausman draws the far more difficult matchup against a good Mariners’ offense (seventh in wRC+ against RHP) but has also been the far better pitcher of late. Since featuring his splitter more in a June 16th matchup with the Cardinals. Gausman has racked up 79 strikeouts in 63 ⅔ innings. He’s still had a few disaster starts in there which is why the implied total (4.6) is elevated, but he has as big a strikeout ceiling of any starter on the slate.

The salary relief targets on DraftKings aren’t exciting but they are plentiful. Jharel Cotton (OAK) is a slight favorite at home against a Royals’ offense that is a little thinner without Salvador Perez. Adam Conley (MIA) doesn’t project for many strikeouts but the Giants have an implied total of just four runs and are traveling after a double-header that included an extra inning game. It’s possible we see a depleted lineup after Posey caught in extra innings. Jakob Junis (KC) was really impressive last start against the Mariners and gets a better matchup for strikeouts against the A’s in Oakland. All three are priced below $6,000 and are pitching in controlled conditions (mid 60s in Oakland, closed roof in Miami) which keeps their implied totals against in check. The same can be said for Travis Wood (SD) who gets the punchless Phillies’ offense (25th in wRC+ against LHP) getting a big park downgrade. Lineups and line movement will help better determine a preference here (early lean is Cotton or Conley) but the depth of affordable “punt” type starters opens up the slate offensively on DraftKings. These starters can either be used to complement a mid-tier starter and get all of the offense you want or Quintana and open up a bit more spending than the more conservative (Quintana-Eickhoff/Gausman pairing).

In tournaments, Collin McHugh (HOU) has intriguing strikeout upside against the Diamondbacks but comes with plenty of run prevention risk in a strong hitting environment. The high implied total against should keep the ownership in check. We prefer Eickhoff and even Gausman over him in cash games (despite a heftier projection than both), but see compelling room for upside in tournaments.

Catcher

Without paying for elite starting pitching, there is a chance you can “spend” at the catcher position on Monday. Buster Posey (SF) and Gary Sanchez (NYY) are the top two raw projected players at the position, but Posey is the option that stands out most from a per dollar perspective. At $3,600 on DraftKings, Posey is the second best per dollar play and will draw the platoon edge in a matchup against Adam Conley. The price tag is an easy fit, and throw in a park upgrade for Posey and his splits against LHP (.385 wOBA, .194 ISO since 2015) and you have found yourself a compelling cash game play. Wilson Ramos (TB) is the top per dollar play at just $2,300 on DraftKings, a price tag that will allow you to pay up meaningfully in other spots. On FanDuel you can reach for Posey or Sanchez, or take the savings that Alex Avila (CHC) offers. Avila has perhaps found his stride once more, posting a 33.3% Hard% in the last fifteen days. With cheaper access to starting pitching, it only takes a few salary relief options on FanDuel to spend considerably at other positions, Avila is one way to help make that happen.

First Base

Freddie Freeman (ATL) tops the first base position as he will get a huge park upgrade to Coors Field. Chad Bettis makes his return to the club after four starts in AAA where he wasn’t overly impressive (5.37xFIP, only 5.30 K/9) and now he’ll deal with the .407 wOBA and .275 ISO that Freeman has posted against RHP since 2015. Despite the price tag, Freeman is fairly easy to accommodate today.

Anthony Rizzo (CHC) falls just behind Freeman, but is best used as a tournament pivot who will generate less ownership against Asher Wojciechowski. Woj has been able to strike hitters out (fortunately a skill with diminishing returns against someone like Rizzo) but he’s also been prone to the home run ball as he is extremely fly ball oriented (GB% 28%). Where you are trying to create leverage, Rizzo is a great option. Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) would fit that mold as well, taking advantage of a great park and insane batted ball data (41.2% Hard% in last fifteen days).

Lucas Duda (TB), Miguel Cabrera (DET), and Tommy Joseph (PHI) are a bunch of cheaper options at the position that rate well from a per dollar sense, but lag behind in raw projection. Rhys Hoskins (PHI) continues to hit cleanup and is 1B eligible on DK for just $3,300. Oh, and Chris Davis (BAL) is still just $2,900. Mark Reynolds (COL) is always an option when at home and could slide up in the order depending on Nolan Arenado‘s status, but again we prefer him for tournaments due to Teheran’s abilities against RHP.

Second Base

Rougned Odor (TEX) and Brad Miller (TB) are two of the top per dollar plays at the second base position. They bring lots of power upside against RHP, but unfortunately deal with less than ideal lineup spots (Odor has slide down to 7th in two straight starts). While lineup boosts could help, their cause, the potential to spend at the position brings into consideration some better raw projection plays. Ian Kinsler (DET) is the top projected scorer at the position as the Tigers get a huge park upgrade moving to Texas and facing Martin Perez. Perez is a ground ball arm, but has seen his number of balls on the ground decrease this year, not so coincidentally meaning more home runs allowed. Kinsler is not the event upside threat he once was, but he’ll still be at the top of the Tigers order and will carry the platoon edge. It’s quite easy to fit either of Brandon Phillips (ATL) or D.J. LeMahieu (COL) in the greatest park for offense. They too will bring you better lineup spots than Odor and Miller, but lag behind just a tad from a per dollar sense. And don’t forget about Jonathan Schoop (BAL) or Robinson Cano (SEA) who are two of the better players at the position with affordable price tags. The park is not behooving of offense, but both players are dealing with great batted ball data and are facing arms that have allowed at least 1.40 HR/9 this season.

Third Base

Nolan Arenado‘s (COL) status might change the conversation at 3B, where he would be one of the top plays should he be in the lineup. Instead though, our spends might come in the form of Kris Bryant (CHC) or Freddie Freeman (ATL) (DK Only). Bryant has made some discouraging remarks recently about the status of his hand and pinky, but he just put on a show in Arizona and has posted a positive delta in Hard% over the last fifteen days, making us feel a bit better about the state of rostering him.

If not spending, Evan Longoria (TB) represents our top per dollar play on both sites. The matchup with newly recalled Nick Tepesch is not one to be concerned about (ZiPS projecting a 5+ FIP) and Longoria is getting a park upgrade as well. Josh Donaldson (TOR) and Manny Machado (BAL) are both still in the mid-$4,000s on DraftKings, and Nick Castellanos (DET) is a cheap as well – getting the platoon edge and park upgrade in Texas against Martin Perez. Any of these options would be suitable, secondary cash game plays.

Shortstop

The shortstop position might differ depending on your site of choice. On DraftKings, Tim Beckham (BAL) is $3,700 and has recently been moved to the leadoff spot. He’s responsible for an absurd boost in batted ball data of late (38.9% Hard% in L15) and is coming off four straight multi-hit games. It’s difficult to justify his price tag on FanDuel, but on DraftKings he is our preferred option at the position.

On FanDuel, context and price make Trevor Story (COL) the top per dollar play. The lineup spot isn’t good, and we’re not particularly in love with his skillset against Julio Teheran‘s, but he’ll provide you with access to the highest implied run total on the slate and give you a strong upside at the position. Jose Reyes (NYM) is completely punt worthy on FanDuel at $2,100. He hit 8th yesterday, but has also found starts in the 2nd and 6th spot in the order in the last week. Didi Gregorius (NYY) has taken advantage of Yankee Stadium posting a .199 ISO this season and he’ll grab the platoon edge in his home park.

Outfield

Charlie Blackmon (COL) is back in his home park and is once again the darling in the outfield. It isn’t just the park, the lineup spot or the team total, but also consider Julio Teheran‘s struggles with LHB (.359 wOBA, .211 ISO allowed since 2015) as a primary reason for the insistence on rostering Blackmon. Carlos Gonzalez (COL) and Gerardo Parra (COL) will get to take advantage of the same matchup, but come with lower price tags as two of our top per dollar plays in the outfield on both sites.

Corey Dickerson (TB), Jose Bautista (TOR), and Kyle Schwarber (CHC) fall into our top ten outfield values. Dickerson and Bautista will square off against each other in the Rogers Centre, and Dickerson in particular is in our top three outfield values on both sites, despite poor results in recent batted ball data. Schwarber can’t stop striking out, and a matchup with Asher Wojciechowski doesn’t necessarily help that cause, but he’s cheap and comes with considerable upside as a tournament play.

The Mets outfield bats, Michael Conforto (NYM), Curtis Granderson (NYM), and Yoenis Cespedes (NYM) all rate well as they get a park shift in their favor moving to the Bronx. Luis Cessa will fill in for Masahiro Tanaka, and he’s a slightly below average ground ball getter and has posted a 5.44 xFIP while walking 4.55 BB/9 in four starts this season. Justin Upton (DET) will get the platoon edge on Martin Perez, and he historically has been a monster against LHP (despite some struggles last season). Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) won’t stop hitting home runs and gets the platoon edge on Ty Blach, a contact oriented left-hander. Given the ease with which you can spend in the outfield, there is a good chance he carries decent ownership.

Ender Inciarte (ATL) doesn’t pop as much as his context should suggest (road leadoff hitter at Coors), but he’s a great value on both sites. Rhys Hoskins (PHI) is OF eligible on FanDuel and is just $2,100. He opens up the floodgates while still giving you a ton of power upside against Travis Wood.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Colorado Rockies

The Rockies are far and away the top offense on the slate. This will change if Nolan Arenado is unable to go, but Julio Teheran‘s recent struggles coupled with Coors Field makes the Rockies a compelling target.

Tier Two

2) Atlanta Braves

3) Chicago Cubs

4) Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have been atrocious of late but some of that is the result of facing Sale, Carrasco, and Kluber in three of the last four games. They get a big park upgrade and face one of the weaker starters on the slate in Nick Tepesch. Take advantage of the depressed price points in GPPs by pairing the Rays with higher end starting pitching.

Tier Three

5) Texas Rangers

6) Detroit Tigers

7) New York Yankees

8) Arizona Diamondbacks

9) New York Mets

10) Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles are an intriguing contrarian stack on the road in a horrible ballpark for their main skill set (power) but the team composite hard hit rate is nearing 30 percent over the last 15 days and Yovani Gallardo struggles to miss bats. Texas and Detroit represent strong pivots from Coors Field with temperatures in the mid-90s in Arlington.

 

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