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August 14 MLB DFS: Friar Up Padres

August 14 MLB DFS: Friar Up Padres
DAILY FANTASY RUNDOWN
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Daily Fantasy Rundown – August 14 MLB DFS Picks and Analysis

Welcome to Friday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.

Glossary: See a term you’re unfamiliar with? Check out our glossary page. If there’s something you’d like to see added there, please email us at help@dailyroto.com.

Weather: Only game with a potential weather problem is in COL. Bears watching, but right now I am not concerned a ppd.

Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.

If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.

Catcher

Top Play:

Derek Norris (SD) – Norris is about as chalky as it gets today, but the chalk is called chalk for a reason. He gets a massive park shift moving from spacious Petco Park to Coors Field. Calling Coors Field the best hitter’s park in MLB doesn’t quite to it justice as it’s a huge outlier. Furthermore, Norris will have the platoon edge (career .364 wOBA in bad home parks against LHP and a .181 ISO) against a bad LHP in Yohan Flande, who is backed up by one of the league’s worst bullpens, which contains a high amount of LHPs. Norris’ plate discipline has been an absolute mess this season (walk rate more than cut in half, career worst .22 EYE), which introduces risk, but the contextual factors are too strong to completely fade him.

Value Play:

Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) – If you can’t afford Norris, Lucroy is a fine alternative, and may even be the better value on FanDuel where he’s practically minimum salary. We’ve perhaps overused Lucroy this season as his power has disintegrated, but position scarcity combined with a good lineup spot, good home park and optimistic projections moving forward lead us going back to the well while the price is down. He’s particularly in a good spot today as he gets to face a bad LHP in Adam Morgan. Lucroy has a career .365 wOBA and .195 ISO against LHP. He’s struck out against them too much this season but a combination of a small sample size and hard hit rate don’t have us obsessing too much over the poor one year split results. Perhaps most importantly, Adam Morgan is well below average. His 4.06 ERA and 1.42 HR/9 tell us this to an extent, but we think the damage could be much worse as his FIP, xFIP, ZiPS projected ERA and Steamer projected ERA are all above five. The higher HR/9 isn’t inflated as his HR/FB rate is league average. Rather, it’s the result of a allowing a ton of contact (just a 13.2 K percentage) and a high percentage of that being aerial contact (.62 GB/FB ratio). Lucroy won’t be the only Brewer hitter you see in the Rundown today.

Additional catcher options: Matt Wieters (BAL) is dealing with a hamstring injury, but if he returns, he’ll becoming back to an elite matchup against LHP Brad Mills in Camden Yards. Wieters is a secondary value, but given opportunity cost, may make for a better contrarian tournament option. On FanDuel, Evan Gattis (HOU) is a secondary value and given his high risk/high reward skill set, is also a target for tournaments. He lacks the platoon edge but Alfredo Simon is a below average pitcher, and the bullpen behind him is one of the worst in the league.

First Base

Top Play: It’s an odd day as no first baseman ranks in the top 15 overall hitters in our model despite a nearly full slate of games. The highest rate first baseman is Edwin Encarnacion (TOR), who has missed the last several games with a finger injury. If he returns, I wouldn’t hesitate to target his power upside in all formats on DraftKings, but on FanDuel, where pricing is tougher and Encarnacion is more expensive, he’s better saved for tournaments. Teammate Justin Smoak (TOR) makes for a fine salary cap relief option across the industry if he hits fifth or sixth.

Value Plays:

Jesus Montero (SEA) – I’m really hoping we see Jesus Montero somewhere in the top six of the Mariners lineup. Montero is a post-hype prospect who was absolutely mashing at AAA (.346/.388/.551) and has continued his hot hitting since being called up. He has poor plate discipline but is making up for it with quality of contact. Despite the risks associated with him, the contextual factors around him today along with a very cheap price tag across the industry make him a smart risk in cash games, allowing you to diver funds to Coors Field and pitching. He gets a massive park shift in his favor playing at Fenway, which is very favorable for RHBs. Being on the road also mitigates some of the risk associated with hitting sixth in the lineup (better chance at a fourth PA with a guaranteed full nine innings of at bats for the road team). Opposing pitcher Joe Kelly has struggled mightily, allowing 1.15 HR/9 and posting a 5.96 ERA. While the ERA has to do with a little bit of bad luck, a 35.2 hard hit rate in a pitcher’s park pretty much ensures you’ll underachieve your expected ERAs over time. Kelly has allowed a .332 wOBA to RHBs since 2013, the fifth worst split among starting pitchers in action tonight against RHBs.

Prince Fielder (TEX) – Fielder is the best mid-high priced first baseman for cash games. He doesn’t rate well enough in our model to be considered a core option but pops as a cash game value across several sites. Opposing pitcher Nate Karns is putting together a solid season but he’s a touch homer prone and can be wild, which could hurt him a bit more pitching in Texas than it has in Tampa Bay. Fielder has rebounded this season thanks to an increase in both hard hit rate and loft. His overall EYE is reduced, which has some negative consequences, but it’s not that bad of a thing from a DFS perspective since both the BB and K rates being reduced has led to more balls being put into play, which means more hits and more RBIs.

Additional first base notes: As mentioned above, we aren’t on a lot of expensive first baseman, making this one of the last positions I’ll fill out this evening. Even if Montero doesn’t start or get the lineup spot we are hoping for, there are other low cost options: Justin Smoak (mentioned in Encarnacion’s blurb) and Nick Swisher (ATL) (if he hits fifth is in a decent spot against Robbie Ray who continues to allow a high hard hit rate to RHBs). I don’t particular love any one mid-tier first base value, but alternatives to Prince Fielder in that price range or for a bit less are Eric Hosmer (KC), Carlos Santana (CLE) and Evan Gattis (HOU).

Second Base

Best Value Play:

Jedd Gyorko (SD) – Gyorko is one of the easiest way to grab Coors Field exposure tonight. While second base is deeper than normal, the opportunity cost in the middle infield still isn’t all that high, and Gyorko’s tag is one of the most affordable among the Padres hitters. Like Jesus Montero, Gyroko is a post-hype sleeper. After a great rookie campaign, he’s been wretched in two straight seasons. The good news is it looks like a switch has been flipped in the power department. After posting hard hit rates of 30/33.3/25 over the season’s first three months, Gyorko’s hard hit rate is over 40 percent in July and August. His GB rate has also dropped off dramatically. To sum up, harder hit balls and more loft equals improved power. Gyorko’s second half ISO so far is at .157, much higher than his first half mark of .099. Even if we weren’t starting to feel a bit better about Gyorko’s skills, the contextual factors are so favorable we may have used him anyways. Like with teammate Daniel Norris, Gyorko benefits from the massive park shift, facing a subpar LHP and getting to face a bad bullpen later in the game. The Padres have a 5.5 team total, and you need some exposure to this offense in cash games.

Alternative Value Plays: While Gyorko is our main target, the second base position is rather deep today. Here are some alternative targets:

Robinson Cano (SEA) (good park shift even if it’s better for RHBs than LHBs; platoon edge on struggling Joe Kelly; team total of 4.5)

Jose Altuve (HOU) (tournament options on most sites but severely underpriced on FanDuel where he’s worth playing based on base skills and price alone; plus, the matchup is favorable despite not holding the platoon edge)

Anthony Rendon (WAS) (bad park but this price is way too low for Rendon’s skills and spot as the leadoff hitter for a now healthy Nationals team; Cain has given up four earned runs in three straight starts and five of seven overall)

Chase Utley (PHI) (in decline but leading off on the road in a strong hitter’s park still gives him value at such a cheap price across the industry, especially considering Wily Peralta‘s .350 wOBA allowed to LHBs since 2013)

Additional second base notes: Cesar Hernandez (PHI) remains a cheap option on DraftKings in a good matchup; he also holds shortstop eligibility there. Rougned Odor (TEX) is another alternative value, but given his price and all the other options we like, I prefer him in tournaments. DJ LeMahieu (COL) deserves consideration as a result of Coors Field and a high team total, but I wouldn’t force him in cash as the price and starting matchup aren’t good.

Shortstop

Value Plays:

Troy Tulowitzki (TOR) – Like second base, the shortstop position has a lot more depth than usual. While that makes me less likely to simply pay up for Tulowitzki and work around that, he’s still a cash game value. His tag is affordable and despite some ho-hum games recently, this continues to be a great way to get exposure to the best offense in baseball. Since 2013, Nova has allowed a really high hard minus soft hit rate of 22.6 percent to RHBs, leading to a .318 wOBA allowed despite a fortunate HR/FB rate.

Jose Reyes (COL) – Reyes will hit second for a Rockies team that has a high team total of around five despite facing a quality pitcher in Tyson Ross. Basically, the environment trumps the quality of pitcher. In Reyes’ case, he’ll be hitting from his strong side (the left side), and Tyson Ross has a double digit walk rate and higher than average hard hit rate against LHBs. Throw in Reyes’ speed upside and he’s a quality cash game play on FanDuel, but the price is a bit aggressive on DraftKings with legitimate alternatives tonight.

Jean Segura (MIL) – The best cheap option at shortstop is Jean Segura. He leads off against LHP, and the Brewers have a healthy team total approaching five despite disappointing team stats against LHP on the season. Segura is not a good offensive player, but he can run on the base paths and into a homer every once in a while. This is mostly about the contextual factors surrounding him at this price point.

Additional shortstop notes: While the written up recommendations are our main cash game targets, there are a few other secondary value that are fine in all formats this evening. They include Xander Bogaerts (BOS) (good splits and faces a below average LHP at home; high team total), Jed Lowrie (HOU) (hitting cleanup for the Astros and has decent power upside against Alfredo Simon and a bad Tigers bullpen) and Jhonny Peralta (STL) (cheap option given cleanup spot, plus power relative to peers and a below average opposing pitcher). Carlos Correa (HOU) is playable in tournaments virtually every night, but there’s not much reason to spend up on him in cash games.

Third Base

Top Play:

Manny Machado (BAL) – It’s difficult to pay such a high price tag for a non-Coors Field player but if you’re willing to go a bit riskier with your pitching (viable in cash games today), it’s possible to squeeze Machado in and still get proper Coors Field exposure. The Orioles have a high team total at hom as they’ll face LHP Brad Mills. Mills has just 74 MLB innings under his belt and just 20.2 since 2013 (all in 2014), so it’s tough to get much of a read on him. We do know he was beyond horrible in the stints he has spent at the MLB level (8.15 ERA, 1.82 HR/9, 36.1 hard hit rate). I’m not sure we can expect him to be quite that bad, but a 4.52 ERA and 4.61 FIP at AAA for a 30 year old this season means we should expect him to continue to be well below average. That’s great news for Machado, who has turned into a monster this season. He’s become an “event” player, hitting 24 homers and stealing 15 bases and the massive improvement in indicators (EYE from .29 to .59, increased loft and hard hit rate), gives us confident that he’ll continue to mash.

Next in line: Nolan Arenado (COL) (R/R matchup on Ross and exorbitant tag makes him a tournament play only despite playing at home)

Value Plays:

Kyle Seager (SEA) – Another reason I’m keen to pay up for Machado is I don’t have strong opinions on the mid-tier values. We do get two reasonably priced middle of the order bats who hold the platoon edge in parks that represent a big uptick in park factor. The first is Kyle Seager. He goes from Seattle to Boston to face the struggling Joe Kelly. Seager has a solid career .345 wOBA and .178 ISO against RHP. Those numbers are down this year, but if anything, his plate discipline and reduced K rate would suggest an improvement in that area. That’s a reason why small sample splits can be misleading, and we’ll continue to target Seager in appropriate spots against RHP.

Evan Longoria (TB) – Longoria concerns me a little bit as his power numbers remain drastically down for the second straight season. Good career splits against LHP, the bad Rangers bullpen and a large park shift in his favor are enough to make him a secondary value. However, he probably won’t make my final cut for cash game rosters as opposing pitcher Martin Perez has been a ground ball machine. Longoria is an okay play but not a great one.

Additional third base notes: On sites like DraftKings that have multi-positional eligibility, I don’t mind eschewing a traditional third baseman and filling in guys like Gyorko, Rendon and Santana (Machado still my main preference). Adrian Beltre (TEX) is in the Longoria category for me; he’s an okay option that our model likes but I’m manually adjusting him back a bit. If you simply want to go cheap at the position and target a team with a high implied run total, Brock Holt (BOS) is your guy.

Outfield

Top Plays:

Matt Kemp/Justin Upton (SD) – Despite an expensive cost on both of these outfielders, I’ll find a way to squeeze at least one of them into every single cash game roster I make. You’ve got two players with massive career splits against LHP (Kemp .395 wOBA/.219 ISO, Upton .384/.235) who can both homer and/or steal in any contest. Throw in Flande’s .342 wOBA and 1.17 HR/9 allowed to RHBs and a Rockies bullpen that has the league’s highest ERA, and it’s tough to fade the best choices from the highest expected scoring team. I’ll likely own more of Kemp than Upton (slightly better lineup spot, lower price), although I’d go Upton’s route if priced the same and will try to own shares of both.

Next in line: Charlie Blackmon/Carlos Gonzalez (COL) (both will hold the platoon edge on Ross; Blackmon is better for cash games due to price but the red hot Carlos Gonzalez is an elite tournament option)

Value Plays:

Ryan Braun/Khris Davis (MIL) – Since 2013 Ryan Braun has a massive .394 wOBA and .246 ISO against LHP. Khris Davis hasn’t been nearly effective overall, but has flashed a ton of power against southpaws (.247 ISO). Both make great options today at home as the Brewers have one of the highest team totals we’ve seen from them in recent memory. ZiPS projects opposing pitcher Adam Morgan to allow a .362 wOBA and .194 ISO to RHBs.

Adam Jones (BAL) – We touched on Brad Mills’ horrific small sample MLB numbers, current Minor League numbers and projections in Machado’s blurb. Naturally, Adam Jones benefits from the same matchup and is pretty nicely priced since sites that priced based on matchup weren’t aware that Mills was starting upon salary release. It’s pretty crazy how consistent Adam Jones‘ numbers are year over year. 2015 has been no different, with the exception of a reduced K rate that gives him a hint more upside than he’s shown so far.

Yasiel Puig (LAD) – I wouldn’t go overboard picking on rookie John Lamb (see scouting report below the starting pitcher section), but using Puig gives you exposure to the situation at a price tag that doesn’t carry much risk. While Puig has been disappointing this season, we’ve had success using him in certain spots and expect the consistency to improve over the final month and a half of the season. The main issue with Puig currently is a BABIP that is 67 points below his career mark. There’s nothing in the hard hit data or plate discipline indicators to suggest such a drop is anything more than bad fortune.

Additional outfield notes: We’ll keep our eye out on some cap relief options in the outfield as lineups are released (possibly Coco Crisp (OAK) or Nolan Reimold (BAL)), but currently I like flooding the outfield with the mid to high priced written up recommendations that possess a ton of upside – even if I have to be a bit riskier with pitching. Other outfield values include Hanley Ramirez (BOS) (if he returns) and teammates Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo (if Hanley out and Castillo remains in a favorable lineup spot). Josh Reddick (OAK) is underpriced on FanDuel and one of the better cheap options in cash games there. Over on DraftKings, the savings come with the Arizona pairing of David Peralta/Ender Inciarte (ARI). Not exactly bold calls coming, but with so much focus on Coors Field, using other high end outfielders such as Mike Trout (LAA), Jose Bautista (TOR) and Bryce Harper (WAS) is a smart contrarian move in large field tournaments. Some cheap tournament options include platoon specialists Brandon Guyer (TB) and Jonny Gomes (ATL).

Starting Pitcher

Rankings (price not considered):

Tier One

1) Max Scherzer (DET)

Tier Two

2) Corey Kluber (CLE)

Tier Three

3) David Price (TOR)

4) Dallas Keuchel (HOU)

Tier Four

5) Jaime Garcia (STL)

6) Alex Wood (ATL)

Tier Five

7) Robbie Ray (ARI)

Tier Six

8) Julio Teheran (ATL)

9) Bartolo Colon (NYM)

10) Ubaldo Jimenez (BAL)

11) Tyson Ross (SD)

Tier Seven

12) John Lamb (CIN)

13) Matt Cain (SF)

14) JA Happ (PIT)

Top Play:

Max Scherzer (WAS) – Despite facing an underrated Giants offense (first wRC+ against RHP, don’t strike out often), Scherzer tops our model due to a combination of his own skills (30.3 K percentage, 2.53 FIP) and the ballpark (San Francisco’s home park is the best pitcher’s park in all of baseball). He’s excessively priced on DraftKings, making him a tournament option only there, and a borderline one at that. However, his value is much higher on FanDuel as he’s priced in line with the other top starting pitcher options. If giving up Coors Field exposure and paying up on FanDuel, Scherzer is the pitcher I’d do it with. However, he’s not a must in any format today.

Next in line:

Corey Kluber (CLE) – Paying for Kluber on FanDuel is a stretch in cash games given that he’s the most expensive pitcher on a night featuring three legitimate aces and a game in Coors. However, on DraftKings he’s someone I’ll use to anchor my staff. There he’s actually cheaper than the other top pitchers throwing (Scherzer, Price, Keuchel). Kluber is having another dominant season, thanks to a high 27.1 K percentage, miniscule 4.8 BB rate and a sub-27 percent hard hit rate for the third consecutive season. Kluber’s ability to pitch deep into games, gives him the same upside as a Scherzer for a lower cost on multi-SP sites. While he’s not pitching in San Francisco like Scherzer gets the benefit of, Kluber will pitch in another big ballpark, Target Field. This lineup is a bit better than our model projects given how well youngsters Aaron Hicks and Miguel Sano are hitting. Still, there are plenty of strikeout possibilities, and despite the upside Hicks and Sano are providing (as well as Dozier with a massive season), the Twins still rank just 24th in wRC+ against RHP.

Value Plays:

Jaime Garcia (STL) – With a game in Coors Field and two huge favorites (Garcia and Wood) registering well in our model, you don’t have to pay up for starting pitching, even on one starting pitcher sites. The first is Jaime Garcia who comes in as a -215 favorite at home (where he has a career 2.85 ERA) in a game with a total of just seven, putting the Marlins team total around three. This Marlins offense lost their biggest bat against LHP (Giancarlo Stanton) and now shipped away Martin Prado (CORRECTION: Prado has not been traded), who was nothing special but a contact oriented RHB that was hitting near the top of the order. Between that and guys like Hechavarria, Realmuto, Suzuki and Gordon all overachieving against LHP, we’re not really buying the team’s fifth ranking in wRC+. We’d expect that to drop while the above average K rate continues. Garcia, like Scherzer and Kluber, is someone you need to pay attention to the price with. On FanDuel, he’s a strong value play option but just a secondary value on DraftKings where he’s not much cheaper than Kluber and meaningfully more expensive than Wood.

Jaime Garcia (STL) – With a game in Coors Field and two huge favorites (Garcia and Wood) registering well in our model, you don’t have to pay up for starting pitching, even on one starting pitcher sites. The first is Jaime Garcia who comes in as a -215 favorite at home (where he has a career 2.85 ERA) in a game with a total of just seven, putting the Marlins team total around three. This Marlins offense lost their biggest bat against LHP (Giancarlo Stanton) and now shipped away Martin Prado , who was nothing special but a contact oriented RHB that was hitting near the top of the order. Between that and guys like Hechavarria, Realmuto, Suzuki and Gordon all overachieving against LHP, we’re not really buying the team’s fifth ranking in wRC+. We’d expect that to drop while the above average K rate continues. Garcia, like Scherzer and Kluber, is someone you need to pay attention to the price with. On FanDuel, he’s a strong value play option but just a secondary value on DraftKings where he’s not much cheaper than Kluber and meaningfully more expensive than Wood.

Alex Wood (LAD) – Wood’s having a disappointing season given the high expectations following a great rookie year. Most of the disappointment stems from a low 8.1 SwStr rate, which has led to a lower K rate and consequently a higher ERA. The good news for Wood and Dodgers fans is he has posted a double digit SwStr rate in six of his past 10 starts after failing to do so even once over his first 11 starts. In his two starts with the Dodgers, his SwStr rates are 15.4 and 14.7. He’s been missing more bats as a result and should continue to do so moving forward, which enhances his DFS value for obvious reasons (more strikeouts equals more points) but will also help his run prevention. The Reds represent a mediocre matchup from an offensive standpoint, but they’re throwing John Lamb (first ever MLB start), leaving Wood and the Dodgers as heavy favorites (-175).

Additional starting pitcher notes: David Price (TOR) and Dallas Keuchel (HOU) are two other elite pitchers throwing today and both deserve consideration in tournaments every time out. They lag behind our top pitchers due to tougher parks and, in Price’s case, an aggressive price point. Keuchel is the more viable in cash games of the two. In cash games, I wouldn’t recommend dipping outside of the top four pitching tiers. Tyson Ross (SD) is a contrarian tournament option as ownership will be minuscule in Coors, but his price seems to reflect the environment and his K upside at least makes it feasible for him to post a valuable outing. Another tournament option I’m fond of that will let you load up on bats is John Lamb (CIN). He certainly comes with risk but is extremely cheap and both his Minor League numbers and Steamer projections indicate he can old his own while striking out an above average amount of batters.

For more on John Lamb, here’s a scouting report from DailyRoto contributor Mike Diaz, who is an associate scout for the Padres and played two years in the Angels organization following college ball at the University of South Florida:

John Lamb

LHP- Cincinnati Reds

John Lamb was recently shipped over to the Reds as part of the package for Johnny Cueto, and will make his MLB debut tonight against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Lamb was once a top level prospect in the Kansas City Royals organization, but after injuring his elbow in 2011, resulting Tommy John surgery, Lamb had struggled to regain his velocity until this year. According to a NL scout I spoke with, Lamb has two above average pitches with inconsistent command. His fastball (90-93mph) and change-up both grade out at above average offerings. Lamb’s curveball, a slow loopy breaker, is a below average pitch that Lamb uses as more of a change of pace pitch.

In 94.1 innings for AAA Omaha (KC), Lamb posted a 2.67 ERA and a FIP of 3.58. In three starts for AAA Louisville (CIN) Lamb has pitched to a 2.65 ERA and a 2.11 FIP. With his resurgence in velocity, Lamb’s strikeout rate in 2015 is a very good at 9.46 K/9. Lamb’s changeup allows him to neutralize RH batters, and his numbers show no platoon splits. Scouts project Lamb to be a solid #4 type starter, who gives up a lot of fly balls, which does not sit well pitching home games at Great American Ballpark.

Macro Thinking, Stacks, and Tournament Notes:

This is a new section we’ve created to try and offer more dedicated macro thinking to our analysis and hopefully add more value to those playing tournaments. The format is a bit of a work in progress and we welcome feedback (help@dailyroto.com) if you have suggestions.

Top Tournament Stacks/Cash Game Mini Stacks:

1) San Diego Padres (the chalk stack and one I’m making sure to own at least two players f in cash games)

2) Milwaukee Brewers (perhaps not the second next highest scoring team, but when you factor in favorable pricing and how they mesh with roster construction, they get a boost)

3) Baltimore Orioles (we don’t have much of a sample size on Brad Mills, but the possibility of an extreme disaster start involving home runs might be as high here as anywhere else)

4) Colorado Rockies (entirely due to Coors Field, which is why in light of pricing of their bats they aren’t further up on this list)

Contrarian/Secondary Stacks:

1) Houston Astros (make this section often due to HR/SB upside and they face a below average pitcher backed up by a terrible bullpen in Houston)

2) Toronto Blue Jays (with Coors Field in play, the vaunted Jays offense may be lower owned than usual, giving them more upside in large field tournaments than in recent days)

3) Seattle Mariners (huge park shift against a struggling Joe Kelly; Red Sox bullpen has seventh highest ERA and fourth highest xFIP)

MLB Game Weather Forecasts

In the scales below, a 10 strongly favors the batter, a 1 strongly favors the pitcher and a 5 has no impact on the game.

OAK at BLT 7:05: Dry. Temps in the low 80s falling into the low to mid 70s. Air density is a 7 becoming a 6. Wind south-southwest 3-6 mph becoming nearly calm. The wind blows out to left-center early in the game. The wind is a 6 becoming a 5.

NYY at TOR 7:07: Retractable roof. Showers and thunderstorms will be near the city to begin the game so the roof will likely be closed.

SEA at BOS 7:10: Dry. Temps near 80 falling into the low to mid 70s. Air density is a 7 becoming a 6. Wind south-southeast 8-16 mph which blows out to left. The wind is a 7.

PIT at NYM 7:10: Dry. Temps near 80 falling into the mid 70s. Air density is a 7. Wind southwest 3-6 mph which blows out to center. The wind is a 6.

AZ at ATL 7:35: Dry. Temps in the mid 80s falling into the upper 70s. Air density is an 8. Wind east 6-12 mph which blows in from right. The wind is a 4.

TB at TEX 8:05: Dry. Temps in the mid 90s falling into the mid 80s. Air density is a 9. Wind northeast 5-10 mph which blows from left to right. The wind is a 5.

LAA at KC 8:10: Dry. Temps in the low to mid 80s falling into the mid to upper 70s. Air density is a 7. Wind southeast 4-8 mph which blows from right to left. The wind is a 5.

PHL at MIL 8:10: Retractable roof. Dry. Temps in the mid to upper 80s falling into the upper 70s. Air density is an 8. Wind southwest 8-16 mph which blows from right to left. The wind is a 5.

CLE at MIN 8:10: Dry. Temps in the low 90s falling into the mid 80s. Air density is an 8. Wind southwest 4-8 mph which blows out to left. The wind is a 6.

DET at HOU 8:10: Retractable roof. Dry. Temps in the low 90s falling into the mid 80s. Air density is an 8. Wind southeast 6-12 mph lessening to 3-6 mph. The wind blows out to left. The wind is a 6.

MIA at STL 8:15: Dry. Temps in the mid to upper 80s falling into the upper 70s. Air density is an 8 becoming a 7. Wind southeast 4-8 mph which blows from right to left. The wind is a 5.

SD at COL 8:40: As been the case so often this summer, thunderstorms will develop in the mountains off to the west of the city and try to push east. As they near the city, they will weaken. There is no doubt about that. The question is how much do they weaken. Recently, the trend is that weaken dramatically and thus do not even make it into the city. The models are not quite showing that, with some rain pushing in right around the scheduled start time. So, best case scenario, game plays no problem (60-70%). Worst case, a thunderstorm pushes over them and dumps rain and them, causing a ppd (less than 10%). Middle ground is a delay at some point, or a late start (~20%). Temps in the mid to upper 80s falling into the mid 70s. Air density is a 10. Wind south 8-16 mph which blows out to center. The wind is a 7.

CIN at LAD 10:10: Dry. Temps in the upper 70s falling into the low 70s. Air density is a 7 becoming a 6. Wind west-southwest 8-16 mph lessening to 6-12 mph which blows out to right. The wind is a 7 becoming a 6.

WSH at SF 10:15: Dry. Temps near 70 falling into the mid 60s. Air density is a 6. Wind west-northwest 15-25 mph with higher gusts early lessening to 9-18 mph which blows out to right-center. The wind is a 10 becoming an 8.

MLB Daily Analysis

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