Daily Fantasy Rundown – August 14 MLB DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Friday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
Weather: Only game with a potential weather problem is in COL. Bears watching, but right now I am not concerned a ppd.
Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.
If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.
Derek Norris (SD) – Norris is about as chalky as it gets today, but the chalk is called chalk for a reason. He gets a massive park shift moving from spacious Petco Park to Coors Field. Calling Coors Field the best hitter’s park in MLB doesn’t quite to it justice as it’s a huge outlier. Furthermore, Norris will have the platoon edge (career .364 wOBA in bad home parks against LHP and a .181 ISO) against a bad LHP in Yohan Flande, who is backed up by one of the league’s worst bullpens, which contains a high amount of LHPs. Norris’ plate discipline has been an absolute mess this season (walk rate more than cut in half, career worst .22 EYE), which introduces risk, but the contextual factors are too strong to completely fade him.
Jonathan Lucroy (MIL) – If you can’t afford Norris, Lucroy is a fine alternative, and may even be the better value on FanDuel where he’s practically minimum salary. We’ve perhaps overused Lucroy this season as his power has disintegrated, but position scarcity combined with a good lineup spot, good home park and optimistic projections moving forward lead us going back to the well while the price is down. He’s particularly in a good spot today as he gets to face a bad LHP in Adam Morgan. Lucroy has a career .365 wOBA and .195 ISO against LHP. He’s struck out against them too much this season but a combination of a small sample size and hard hit rate don’t have us obsessing too much over the poor one year split results. Perhaps most importantly, Adam Morgan is well below average. His 4.06 ERA and 1.42 HR/9 tell us this to an extent, but we think the damage could be much worse as his FIP, xFIP, ZiPS projected ERA and Steamer projected ERA are all above five. The higher HR/9 isn’t inflated as his HR/FB rate is league average. Rather, it’s the result of a allowing a ton of contact (just a 13.2 K percentage) and a high percentage of that being aerial contact (.62 GB/FB ratio). Lucroy won’t be the only Brewer hitter you see in the Rundown today.