Daily Fantasy Rundown – August 16 MLB DFS Picks and Analysis
Welcome to Sunday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem”, “dinkpiece” and “thenumbersguy”. Each day throughout the MLB season our daily MLB scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. The goal of our analysis is to help you improve consistency and become a better player long-term.
Weather: Two games to watch for potential weather delays are in COL and MIN. The chances of a delay are higher in COL than they were yesterday. Lots of games being played with warm temperatures.
Please see Meteorologist Mark Paquette’s game by game weather forecasts below the Analysis.
If any weather situations shift drastically, we will keep you updated with lineup alerts so make sure to check your email inbox up until roster lock.
Derek Norris (SD) – I know you all get sick of hearing about Coors by the end of a series, but it’s once again going to be an emphasis in today’s Rundown because of its importance in cash games. This starts right away at the catcher position, as Derek Norris should hit second with the platoon edge on Chris Rusin (.361 wOBA, 1.23 HR/9 allowed to RHBs since 2013). Norris has mashed LHP for his career, and the Padres have a team total of 5.5 (tied with the Rockies for the highest on the day), making Norris virtually a shoe in for five plate appearances on the road. As is often the case in Coors Field, the extremity of it as a hitter’s park (it’s not just the best, it’s an outlier) plays a pivotal role, but that’s enhanced by a bad starting pitcher (4.74 career ERA with almost all those innings coming outside of Coors) backed up by a bad bullpen (highest ERA in MLB).
Cash game alternatives: If price is an issue or Norris isn’t in the lineup, there are a couple viable cheap alternatives. We hate to be redundant, but once again the guys that best fit the bill here are John Jaso (TB) and Jonathan Lucroy (MIL). Jaso leads off against RHP for the Rays (.353 career wOBA against RHP with a high .170s ISO the past two seasons), and gets a massive park shift playing in Texas. Opposing pitcher Yovani Gallardo has had his K rate drop off the table this season, leading to a career worst 4.36 xFIP. Lucroy’s down season is partially due to hitting too many ground balls, but it’s primarily bad luck (HR/FB rate and BABIP both well below career marks despite EYE and hard hit rate in line with career mark). He continues to hit second in a good park and while he lacks the platoon edge, he faces a subpar pitcher in Aaron Harang who has allowed a .324 wOBA and 1.06 HR/9 to RHBs since 2013. Overall this season, Harang has a 4.52 ERA and 4.72 xFIP. Again, sometimes it’s frustrating to see the same names, but that will happen when guys are in favorable series against bad pitching staffs in favorable parks, especially at the scarcer positions. Keep pounding away at these values as it’s the plus-EV move over the long run.