FNTSY SportsGrid RotoExperts
August 2 MLB DFS: Don’t Sleep on Napoli
dinkpiece
Print Friendly

Welcome to August 2 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for August 2 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

premium_access_now  CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS  |  HITTER SPLITS  | PITCHER SPLITS  |  SORTABLE STATS  |  PITCHER TRENDS  |  LINEUPS  |  LEADERS

August 2 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
00:53 Starting Pitcher
09:49 Catcher
12:28 First Base
14:26 Second Base
17:15 Third Base
19:53 Shortstop
23:18 Outfield
27:15 Stacks

1x

mlb_premium_pod

CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

August 2 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

 Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

Dallas Keuchel (HOU) and Jake Arrieta (CHC) headline a slate without much starting pitching. The matchups for Keuchel and Arrieta are friendly for strikeouts as they face the Rays (17th in wRC+ against LHP, 26 percent K Rate is second highest in the league against LHP) and the Diamondbacks (ninth in wRC+, 23 percent K Rate is sixth highest in the league against RHP) respectively. They’ll both have the benefit of above average pitching environments with Keuchel at home in a park with a roof and Arrieta at home with temperatures in the mid-70s and the wind blowing in. The challenge with both starters is price tags that feel uncomfortable. Keuchel struggled in his return from an extended stint on the DL. His velocity was intact and he generated swinging strikes and ground balls but allowed a 66.7 percent hard hit rate and struggled to generate swings outside the strike zone. Arrieta has been trending in the right direction (.245 wOBA, .112 ISO over last five starts) but the weaker contact has also been accompanied with fewer strikeouts. The lack of depth at the starting pitching position makes one of these a necessity in cash games. Our projections favor Keuchel but Arrieta comes with a little more certainty in his skill set. Unfortunately, we don’t have a strong opinion on which starter to favor. On DraftKings, it’s viable to pair the two starters together but you’ll need some punt plays to emerge and you may opt for more offensive upside on a slate loaded with good offensive environments.

The result is a group of secondary starters that range from terrifying to mildly terrifying as options. On the extreme cheap end of the spectrum: Robert Stephenson (CIN), Luke Weaver (STL), and Brock Stewart (LAD) are $5,000 or below and all possess decent K Rate baselines. The run prevention side is ugly but the price tags don’t require much. We’ll likely use this tier more for GPP exposure but Luke Weaver is the starter we feel most comfortable with from this group. Stewart might be the most talented but has some semblance of a pitch limit while Weaver flashed an above average K Rate in a brief major league stint last season and followed it up with an impressive year at AAA (27.3 K Rate, 1.91 ERA). These guys are also viable pivots from Arrieta-Keuchel in GPPs on FanDuel.

The slightly more established and substantially more expensive potential cash game pairing with Arrieta-Keuchel is JC Ramirez (LAA) who gets a great matchup at home against the Phillies (23rd in wRC+ with an above average 23.7 K Rate). Ramirez comes with one of the lower implied totals against (3.8) and he’s been one of the lower variance options available. Despite a string of difficult matchups (@CLE, BOS, TB, @TEX, @MIN, LAD, @BOS) he’s gone at least six innings in five of those seven starts and allowed four or fewer earned runs in all but one. He doesn’t have a ton of upside but at $7,200 he provides enough salary relief to still attack the offense and brings a bit more stability than the sub-$5,000 crew. Matt Moore (SF) is a cheaper version with a bit less stability but gets the best pitching environment on the slate and faces an Athletics’ offense that loses the DH and already ranks 24th in wRC+ against LHP with a 25.3 percent K Rate.

Zack Godley (ARI) has shown enough elite GB tendencies to shut down any offense. The Cubs aren’t a great matchup but it is a park improvement and Godley figures to be low owned with a less compelling price tag. He’s also a viable tournament target.

Catcher

With Coors Field and some top arms on the slate, our hope is to find some salary relief at the catching position tonight. Robinson Chirinos (TEX) fits that mold, priced at just $3,100 on DraftKings and $2,100 on FanDuel. With Lucroy out of the mix, Chirinos is the guy in Texas and he’ll get the platoon edge on fly ball oriented Ariel Miranda, in his home park. In limited playing time since 2015, Chirinos has posted a .236 ISO against LHP and though he won’t come with a great lineup spot, he’s our preferred cash game option.

Yasmani Grandal (LAD) rates just behind Chirinos as he’ll take advantage of the wide platoon splits of Julio Teheran, but the price tag is a bit less affordable than Chirinos. He’ll cost you $3,900 on DraftKings and $2,900 on FanDuel, fair price tags, but ones that offer just a bit less cap relief. Salvador Perez (KC) has posted an impressive power season this year and gets a park upgrade in his favor. Tony Wolters (COL) or Travis d’Arnaud (NYM) will give you exposure to Coors Field, and are not exorbitant spends.

First Base

Mike Napoli (TEX) headlines the first base values on both sites tonight. Like Chirinos, Napoli will take pleasure in getting the platoon edge on a fly ball oriented arm in Miranda who has struggled with the long ball (1.79 HR/9) and now will get an unfriendly park in Arlington. The lineup spot is important for Napoli, but he hit 5th in all of his starts but one this week (last night is lone exception). At $3,200 on DraftKings he stands out as an excellent value, but you might not need the savings at $2,700 on FanDuel.

Cody Bellinger (LAD) and Eric Thames (MIL) surround Napoli in the value rankings. Bellinger will draw the wide platoon splits of Julio Teheran (.207 ISO allowed since 2015 to LHB) and will be receiving a park upgrade in his favor. The salary is not restrictive on either site, but the matchup with Teheran on the whole is a bit more difficult and with Coors Field a priority, there is a chance you forego paying for him in cash games. Thames is an interesting conversation piece as well, having struggled a bit in the last month. The park is excellent, and Luke Weaver has shown a tendency to be fly ball prone but there is reason to have some distrust with Thames bat. At $4,200 on DraftKings and $3,400 on FanDuel, it’s reasonable that if you were paying for those price tags you would simply choose to pay up for Bellinger. With that being said, he’s a powerful tournament option.

Mark Reynolds (COL) is definitely in play against Chris Flexen (ZiPS projection of 5.18 FIP) as a piece of a Colorado offense that might go overlooked due to other good values at a loaded position.

Second Base

Robinson Cano (SEA) is not in Coors Field, but stands out above the rest at the second base position. The matchup with Andrew Cashner has been one we’ve been unsuccessful exploiting, but one we are not ready to walk away from. Cashner has posted a 5.02 xFIP and just a 12.1% K% but has gotten away with little damage thanks to a .273 BABIP and 75.3% LOB%. The park shift in Cano’s favor is just one piece of the puzzle, but the $3,400 on FanDuel and $4,200 on DraftKings are easily accessible price tags as well.

Eric Sogard (MIL) has lead off in three of the Brewers last four starts against RHP, and should he be in the top spot again he’s a great salary relief option. At just $2,100 on FanDuel and $3,000 on DraftKings he provides necessary cap relief at a shallow position, bringing a top of the order bat. There is no doubt that Sogard has played above his head thus far this season, but we’re not concerned with trying to extract a high upside anyway.

Neil Walker (NYM) is just $4,600 and is a “cheaper” way to get exposure to the middle of the order at Coors Field. Tyler Chatwood is the better of the arms in the game, but getting Walker from the left side provides us with the most upside. Jonathan Schoop (BAL) has been a monster all season and will get the platoon edge on Jason Vargas in his home park. At a similar price to Robinson Cano, he’s a viable pivot.

Josh Harrison (PIT) is very cheap on both sites and will get the wild Robert Stephenson. He’s not a high upside play, but a secondary cash game play.

Third Base

Nolan Arenado (COL) is one of the Coors bats we are trying to prioritize tonight against Chris Flexen. The price tag is steep ($4,700 on FanDuel, $5,500 on DraftKings) but the Rockies hold an implied run total of 6.9 runs (nice!) and Arenado laps the field in raw projection by more than a full point. A positive delta in his recent batted ball data doesn’t hurt either, try to fit him in.

Arenado will be the likely chalk, and rightfully so, but there are some site specific values that follow after him. Jedd Gyorko (STL) is quite valuable on both sites, grabbing the platoon edge on Brent Suter in a positive park shift in his favor. Gyorko doesn’t fit in the upper echelon of powerful bats against LHP, but he’s posted a reasonable .183 ISO against LHP since 2015. Manny Machado (BAL) is still disgustingly cheap on DraftKings at just $4,000.  We’ve harped on the outstanding peripherals that haven’t been fairly compensated for Machado this season, but contextually things are in his favor as well. He’s in a great park and will get the platoon edge on Jason Vargas and has posted a positive delta in Hard% over the last fifteen days. If you’re not spending up for Arenado, he’s our preference on DraftKings.

On FanDuel there are a bunch of other clustered 3B. Freddie Freeman (ATL) will draw Brock Stewart (fly ball prone, RHP), Kyle Seager (SEA) brings a piece of the action against the aforementioned Andrew Cashner, and Adrian Beltre (TEX) and Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) will give you access to two of the highest sought after offenses on the slate.

Shortstop

Shortstop is another position dictated by the site you play on. On FanDuel, it’s Corey Seager (LAD) who is quite reasonably priced at $3,600 that stands out as our top value. Of course, the difficulty in paying for Seager remains that we are prioritizing other bats at different positions. Still though, the platoon edge on Julio Teheran is worthy of attacking. Instead, you might drop down to someone like Xander Bogaerts (BOS). Bogaerts does not offer much in the way of upside, and is no longer hitting third for the Red Sox, but comes at just $2,800 for an offense with an implied run total over five runs in a good macro environment. The Mets young prospect Amed Rosario (NYM) is priced at $3,100, not an overwhelming value, but a chance to get access to Coors Field for cheaper.

On DraftKings, you can take advantage of dual positional eligibility to grab Eric Sogard (MIL) for just $3,000. Otherwise, Bogaerts is just $3,200, a much smaller price to pay than the $4,200 required to take Jean Segura (SEA) or $4,500 for Elvis Andrus (TEX). We don’t expect Adam Rosales (ARI) to hit third again for ARI against a RHP, but at just $2,100 he’s a complete punt option that is viable to allow you to spend elsewhere.

Outfield

Charlie Blackmon (COL) headlines a bunch of Coors outfield bats that we’d like to grab some exposure to. He is our top projected raw scorer and a top three outfield value on both sites from a per dollar perspective as well. He remains a priority fit in cash games, and with some of the potential values around the league or at second SP on DK, it’s a reasonable ask.

Though we’d prioritize Blackmon in cash games, Mike Trout (LAA) is neck in neck in projection. In tournaments, he’s an excellent pivot away from Blackmon who will likely carry much more ownership.

Carlos Gonzalez (COL), Jay Bruce (NYM), Yoenis Cespedes (NYM), and Michael Conforto (NYM) all are on our radar in this Coors Field game. The way the price tags shake out, it’s Gonzalez and Cespedes who are the two most valuable, and the cheapest ways to get exposure outside of Blackmon.

There are still ways to get exposure to top offenses outside of Coors though. Kole Calhoun (LAA) is just $2,800 on FanDuel and DraftKings, and will give you access to an Angels lineup that carries an implied run total of 5.2 against Jake Thompson (5.49 xFIP). His lineup spot has been a bit more fluid of late, but for only $2,800 on DraftKings, any spot in the top six is compelling.

Andrew Benintendi (BOS) and Starling Marte (PIT) are two other ways to get good value near or at the top of other enticing offenses on this slate. Marte will come with the lesser context, but will also face a worse pitcher in Robert Stephenson. David Peralta (ARI) is just $2,800 on DraftKings, and while the matchup with Jake Arrieta isn’t drool worthy, Peralta has been more than serviceable against RHP since 2015 (.372 wOBA, .195 ISO).

Derek Fisher (HOU) is still sub $3,000 on FanDuel. John Jaso (PIT), Cody Bellinger (LAD), and Eric Thames (MIL) all are OF eligible on DraftKings and are excellent per dollar plays as well.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Colorado Rockies

Tier Two

2) New York Mets

3) Los Angeles Dodgers

 

4) Seattle Mariners

There is a rather big drop-off after our second tier of options. The Rangers, Cardinals, and Astros start a very deep third tier. This is a slate that ownership should condense easier on Coors Field without the really high-end starting pitching available for people to chase. This won’t be the case as much on FanDuel as it is on DraftKings. The Mariners figure to be chalky once again with silly price tags on both sites and another soft matchup in Texas. The Rangers don’t rate as well for us because of Miranda’s solid performance against LHBs but once again pieces of their offense make for good one-off targets (Napoli in particular). Among the stacks listed above, the Dodgers remain our favorite pivot off the chalky options. They get a nice park shift, face a bad bullpen, and face a starter who has really struggled with lefties. From a contrarian perspective, the Cardinals are an intriguing offense that should come with almost no ownership. Piscotty’s return strengthens the depth against LHP and it’s a big park shift in their favor.

 

Facebook Comments