Welcome to August 27 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for August 27 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!
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August 27 MLB DFS Position Timestamps
01:01 Starting Pitcher
08:42 First Base
10:36 Second Base
12:27 Third Base
- In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
- In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.
August 27 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES
For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections
Chris Archer (TB) tops the SP position for Sunday’s slate, and it’s mostly due to his K upside. He’s surprisingly a small underdog with a 4.4 IRTA at the Cardinals, but we’re calling for 8.2 strikeouts – the most on the slate by a wide margin. Archer has a 30.1 K% on the season and 37.3% over this last three starts. The Cardinals have a middle of the pack K% against RHP and generally start 6 RHBs against RHP. Archer gets a positive league shift as well.
If you’re paying up for one of your SP spots on DK, it makes sense to go with Archer. However, Carlos Carrasco (CLE) is meaningfully cheaper than Archer on FD. Both rate as great values on that site and represent the SPs you should be picking from in cash games, but it might make sense to take Carrasco who we’re anticipating to be a large favorite with a much lower IRTA than Archer. Carrasco also has a plus K rate and has been cruising in that department recently, but the contact oriented Royals do keep the K rate projection in check.
Dan Straily (MIA) is the best mid-tier value across both sites. Ideally you can pay up for Archer or Carrasco on DK to pair with Straily, but if you can’t, Straily should still be a part of your SP combination. The ceiling for Straily is nice as we’ve seen several high K rate games, giving him a large standard deviation there. He’s cracked a 30% K rate in six starts this season, including twice over his last three (45.9% last start). The matchup provides the floor while making his ability to hit his ceiling a higher probability outcome than usual. The Padres have the second highest K rate against RHP and rank third last in wRC+. Straily is also an excellent value on FD. We don’t see the cap relief as necessary in cash games, but he should be on your short GPP list.
If you think Straily will be chalky, a cheaper pivot that makes it easier to get up to Archer as an SP1 is Lance Lynn (STL). He’s frustrating to watch with his inability to garner swing and misses against LHBs. And we are projecting four LHBs for the Rays in the lineup, but their high team K% (24.9) against RHP along with the loss of a DH gives Lynn one of the higher K projections you’ll see from a sub-$6,500 SP who isn’t a huge run prevention risk. If you really wanted to be aggressive on bats, a Straily-Lynn cash game combination isn’t out of the question.
Gary Sanchez (NYY) is an excellent spend at the C position. He’s a lock on FD and pretty easy to fit in on DK, although you have to sacrifice a bit more. Sanchez is at home against LHP Andrew Albers, who has a ZiPS projected 5.25 ERA and 1.40 HR/9.
The best pivots off of Sanchez are Alex Avila (CHC) and JT Realmuto (MIA). Avila continues to scorch the ball with a 15-day Hard% of 33.3 percent, slightly outpacing his seasonal mark. He’ll have the platoon edge against Nick Pivetta in hitter friendly Philadelphia. Realmuto faces the homer prone Tommy Milone and is one of the few dual threat catchers, offering up some minor SB upside to go with his power outbreak (.183 ISO).
Similar to most of the weekend series, there are three main plays at the first base position: Anthony Rizzo (CHC), Miguel Cabrera (DET), and Jose Abreu (CHW). Rizzo continues to face subpar RHP in Philadelphia. Nick Pivetta has flashed some nice K upside, but has yielded a ton of power due to a combination of a sub-40% GB rate and massive FanGraphs Hard% of 38.9%.
Cabrera is having a down season, but it’s tough not to want to utilize him at such discounted prices against a bad White Sox pitching staff with the big park upgrade.
Abreu is your split the difference play if you’re unwilling to pay up for Rizzo and unwilling to accept Cabrera’s current .149 ISO. Abreu has a huge positive delta in his 15-day Hard% (+12.6) and will face a homer prone LHP in Matt Boyd (.367 wOBA and .211 ISO allowed to RHBs since 2015).
Additional tournament options are Hanley Ramirez (BOS) (platoon edge against Wade Miley and access to slate high 5.6 IRT), Lucas Duda (TB) (should be low owned given environment but a hot hitter with tons of power, and Lynn struggles mightily against LHBs), and Kendrys Morales (TOR) (nice intersection of low ownership, low cost, great context).
If eschewing value and trying to nail the top overall 1B on the slate, Freddie Freeman (ATL) and Edwin Encarnacion (CLE) have the skills to do it while holding the platoon edge in their respective matchups.
On FD, the second base position is once again dominated by Jose Ramirez (CLE) who gives you access to a CLE team that we’re expecting to have a high IRT against Erik Skoglund, a LHP filling in for the injured Danny Duffy. Ramirez gives you a great matchup (Skoglund a 4.70 ZiPS projected ERA, poor numbers in minors and three MLB starts), a phenomenal lineup spot for a 2B (third), and some event upside out of the position. He’s the prototypical cash game play.
On DK, the tag on Ramirez changes things a bit. Ian Kinsler (DET) has a R/R matchup but a juicy road leadoff spot in a plus hitter’s park against a terrible White Sox bullpen and uncertain SP (Giolito). If you want to full punt the position, Brad Miller (TB) is in a bad park in a bad lineup spot but almost the bare minimum with some power upside against Lynn (.349 wOBA, .192 ISO against LHBs since 2015).
Eduardo Nunez (BOS) is a top four value on both sites. He gets lost in the shuffle a bit roster construction wise but is a fine play in all formats if you want more Boston exposure.
If Tyler Saladino (CHW) leads off for the White Sox, he’s punt priced on both sites, and particularly useful on DK where he holds 2B eligibility as well (and would be a better per dollar value than Kinsler and Miller out of the leadoff spot).
On both sites though this is a position that carries a lot of firepower, so you may want to table Saladino usage outside of at 2B on DK. At least in cash games.
Kris Bryant (CHC) is a high risk/reward play given his elite power and fly ball orientation against a fly ball, homer prone SP. He’s worth a spend on both sites, but carries a touch more value on DK.
Part of the reason for that is we like Anthony Rendon (WAS) who is priced closer to the average cost of a roster spot after slotting in a top SP. Rendon has a large positive 15-Day Hard% delta and holds the platoon edge against Tommy Milone, who carries a high career 1.39 HR/9 (whopping 3.11 in a small sample size this season).
Josh Donaldson (TOR) is the Eduardo Nunez of the position – a high upside player on a high total team who happens to get lost in the shuffle just due to positional opportunity cost and salary. He’s usable in all formats but preferable in tournaments.
Francisco Lindor (CLE) is the clear cut top overall SS on the slate, but really this is a good position to save some money on a slate where you can make an argument for expensive spends on pitching and hitting.
The best two options to save money with are some top of the lineup speedsters facing poor LHPs in Tim Anderson (CHW) and Wilmer Difo (WAS). We prefer Anderson due to park and a lower cost. One minor concern for both of these hitters is a lack of power in matchups that inflate power more than anything else. Still the macro output for both hitters is favorable, and Anderson has surprised with a mid .140s ISO at the MLB level, leading to 14 HRs this season. Difo carries more stolen base upside.
If Jose Reyes (NYM) hits second, which he may given the Cespedes and Conforto injuries, he comes in near minimum salary on FD. Lineup spot and price alone would make him a viable option.
Jean Segura (SEA) is an excellent tournament play on DK where he’s underpriced for the positive park shift, leadoff spot, and facing Tanaka’s volatility. However, the price shouldn’t result in the correct amount of ownership.
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) against a LHP is not surprise the top hitter on the slate. Stanton is on an absolute power tear, and it’s reflected in a 40.5% 15-day hard%. The issue of course for Stanton (and Mike Trout (LAA) and Charlie Blackmon (COL) who lag behind him) is it’s tough to make the big spend, especially at a position with a lot of mid-tier upside.
That mid-tier upside is a result of a handful of teams boasting 5-plus IRTs on the slate. The Pirates fall just short of that, but the big positive park shift going into Cincinnati to face Tyler Mahle, a rookie RHP with a Steamer projected 4.62 ERA and 1.55 HR/9, make Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen (PIT) high upside mid-tier plays.
Jose Bautista (TOR) is having a down season but still at a .172 ISO that is rising in August is playable in plus home matchups, which he has against Kyle Gibson, who boasts a 5.14 FIP and is having major issues with the long ball the past two seasons.
Kyle Schwarber (CHC), despite his anemic batting average (.202), is a plus power play against a homer prone RHP. He holds a .240 ISO on the season.
Chris Young (BOS) is a lefty masher (.383 wOBA, .210 ISo against LHP since 2015) and a strong source of cap relief while simultaneously getting you Boston exposure.
Aaron Judge (NYY) has cooled off and doesn’t rate great in our model, but we still love the power upside in tournaments, especially if he’s meaningfully lower owned than Stanton.
1) Chicago Cubs
No surprise, the Cubs top our stack rankings in this slate. Nick Pivetta has surrendered a 38.2% Hard% over his L3 starts, and he has issues with the long ball (1.99 HR/9 allowed this season, 41.3% FB rate). They’ll be chalky, but the Cubs belong in a tier all by themselves in this slate.
2) Colorado Rockies
The Rockies were barely mentioned in our cliff notes, but they represent a good contrarian target in this slate. Mike Foltynewicz is more susceptible to LHBs (.367 wOBA, .211 ISO since 2015) and this park has played very friendly to LHBs. Arenado is a RHB, but he can be added to the stack as he’s priced correctly and won’t come with meaningful ownership. The main focus though in tournaments should be on LHBs like Blackmon-Parra-CarGo.
3) Houston Astros
4) Detroit Tigers
5) New York Yankees
6) Boston Red Sox
The New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox are going to carry ownership in this slate. They have the highest IRTs in the slate and they’re in great matchups. We like the Yankees more for upside as Sanchez-Judge carry massive power upside and Starlin Castro adds more depth to the lineup. The Astros and Tigers are getting guaranteed nine innings on the road.
7) Cleveland Indians
8) Baltimore Orioles
9) Cincinnati Reds
10) Washington Nationals
The Orioles have an IRT that’s approaching five runs, but it’s worth noting that Doug Fister has been trending in the right direction over his L3 starts. The Nationals are at home facing Tommy Milone, but their lineups have looked ugly of late. We prefer mini-stacking the Nats rather than using full stacks in tournaments.
Additional Tournament Stacks
-Pittsburgh Pirates: Facing rookie Tyler Mahle, who’s making his MLB debut, in a top five hitting environment. It’s a massive park shift as the Pirates play half of their games in a bottom five hitting environment.
-Toronto Blue Jays: They’ve been a thorn on our side all season, but Kyle Gibson and a terrible Twins pen are reasons to get behind the Blue Jays in tournaments.