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August 29 MLB DFS: Dozier Chain Hang Low?
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Welcome to August 29 MLB DFS action here at DailyRoto. Below you’ll find our Daily Fantasy Baseball Premium podcast for August 29 MLB DFS along with our LIVE Premium Chat and cliff notes. Make sure you’re using our customizable projections tool, you’re actively participating in the live chat, and you’re reviewing the cliff notes to supplement your research and roster construction process. Very best of luck in tonight’s action!

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August 29 MLB DFS Position Timestamps

01:15 Starting Pitcher

10:53 Catcher

13:19 First Base

16:02 Second Base

18:10 Third Base

20:43 Shorstop

23:22 Outfield

27:41 Stacks

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CUSTOMIZABLE PROJECTIONS WITH VALUE RATINGS CLICK HERE

  • In cash games, we recommend focusing on value plays to build your rosters (far right hand column of Projections page linked above). Value plays are those we feel have the highest probability of out-earning their current price tag. By packing value plays into your roster, you’re creating a team with a higher floor.
  • In tournaments, we recommend building a core of the best value plays and then complementing them with players who have a high ceiling. This combination is essentially turning up the variance on a strong foundation and we believe often is the best recipe for tournament success.

August 29 MLB DFS CLIFF NOTES

Starting Pitcher

For full SP rankings, see our projections: https://dailyroto.com/mlb-customizable-projections

Chris Sale (BOS) tops our starting pitcher projections in a full slate of games. The gap in projection is rather wide, which makes sense given the discrepancy in strikeouts. Sale’s K projection is approaching nine while our next best target has a K projection under 6.5. Sale is also the highest favorite in this slate (-225) with a tiny IRTA of 3.4 runs. He’s coming off a disaster start vs. the Indians where he allowed six ERs in three IP, but the Indians are a very tough matchup (especially for Ks) and they’ve gotten to him both times they’ve faced him this season. On the other hand, he’s dominated this particular matchup against the Blue Jays (two starts, averaged 39.3 DK points) and from a skills perspective he laps the rest of the field. He’s expensive but projects as your cash game anchor and that’s how we’d like to treat him on FD.

The next highest projected scorer at the position is Ervin Santana (MIN), who’s been on a roll of late (25.4% K rate over his L5 with bigger SwStr rates). One could argue that some favorable matchups over his L5 starts have certainly helped boost the K rate, but he’s facing the White Sox tonight. It’s another plus matchup for Santana, who’s at home as a -215 favorite with an IRTA under four runs. He will feel like an overspend on DK where the price tag is appropriate, but if you wanted to load up on hitters in a big slate, using Santana over Sale could prove to be a shrewd move. It’s not necessary to use Santana over Sale in cash games on FD where the pricing gap is less severe, but if you’d like extra funds for bats on that site using Santana is a viable route.

After Sale and Santana, we get a large tier of pitchers that project closely to one another. Rich Hill (LAD), Zack Godley (ARI), Mike Fiers (HOU), Matt Moore (SF), Jake Arrieta (CHC) and Luke Weaver (STL) is a big tier of pitchers, but there’s only a few we believe are truly cash game viable. Hill and Arrieta are viable GPP pitchers with improving K rates of late, but their price tags makes them better options in tournaments. Godley has an IRTA that’s approaching five runs, but he’s been incredible (26.4% K rate, 3.15 ERA/3.27 xFIP). We like him in tournaments on DK. That leaves us with Fiers, Moore and Weaver, who carry mid-tier price tags and represent better options for cash games as complements to one of Sale or Santana. Weaver has been phenomenal of late and he gets a matchup against a Brewers offense that leads the league in Ks vs. RHP (25.7%) and they’ve been scuffling of late. Fiers will pitch at Tropicana Field tonight, which could help his HR issues (19.9% HR/FB rate this season). Fiers also has a matchup against a K happy offense (Rangers – 23.9% K rate vs. RHP) that ranks middle of the pack in wRC+ vs. RHP. For run prevention, Moore likely gets the best matchup of the group as he’s facing the Padres (ranked dead last in wRC+ vs. LHP) in Petco. The Padres also K a bunch (25.6% K rate vs. LHP).

Catcher

Travis d’Arnaud (NYM) is the headlining catcher on a heavy offensive slate on Tuesday. Not only is d’Arnaud the bare minimum on FanDuel and $2,900 on DraftKings, but the Mets backstop has been moved up to the sixth spot of the order of the last week. A strong park upgrade coming for the Mets, and a matchup with Sal Romano (ZiPS rest of season ERA projection over 5) helps as well. He’s a key component to getting Chris Sale and some Coors Field.

After d’Arnaud, Salvador Perez (KC) and Stephen Vogt (MIL) represent some similarly priced alternatives on DraftKings, albeit neither with as enticing overall context (Perez in Kauffman Stadium against Alex Cobb, Vogt against Luke Weaver). If paying up a bit more, J.T. Realmuto (MIA) also comes into the picture as a viable alternative. Realmuto gets a matchup with the overperforming Edwin Jackson, who has pitched to a 5.43 xFIP and allowed 1.88 HR/9 in his short work this season. Gary Sanchez (NYY) leads the way from a raw projection standpoint, but it’ll be difficult to spend for him in anything other than tournaments. Of course you can get access to Coors Field with James McCann (DET) and Jonathan Lucroy (COL) though we prefer the route of d’Arnaud in cash games.

First Base

Eric Thames (MIL) and Matt Carpenter (STL) square off as the two most valuable per dollar plays at the first base position. Neither comes with overwhelming batted ball data of late, but their price tags, especially on DraftKings are alluring given the option to spend on a top arm and the presence of Coors Field. Where the gap is only $300 on DraftKings, we’d prefer to spend on Carpenter who gets a matchup with Matt Garza (5.01 xFIP, 1.44HR/9) and will be the road leadoff hitter getting a nice positive park shift. Thames has not lived up to the impossible hype this early season presented, but he’s the cheaper of the two ($3,500 on DK, $3,000 on FD) and still possesses monstrous upside (.273 ISO this season). Miguel Cabrera (DET) could be removed at any time with a suspension appeal awaiting, but he’s still only $3,800 on DraftKings and is getting the Coors Field bump. Lucas Duda (TB) brings about another option at sub-$4,000 on DraftKings, as he’ll get the platoon edge on Jake Junis and has posted excellent recent batted ball data. If you need some cap relief on FanDuel, and aren’t in tune with Eric Thames, Hanley Ramirez (BOS) is $2,800 and will draw Tom Koehler (5.60xFIP, 2.23HR/9).

If spending, Mark Reynolds (COL), Freddie Freeman (ATL), and Joey Votto (CIN) lead the way, though our preference at this position is to take the value present with Thames or Carpenter.

Second Base

Brian Dozier (MIN) and Eduardo Nunez (BOS) lead the way at the second base position. Dozier is the top per dollar play on DraftKings where he’s just $4,500 and gets a matchup with James Shields in his home park (good for RHB power). Shields has actually been less than gas-can like in his last four starts, but continues to get crushed by the long ball (2.25HR/9). On FanDuel, our preference is Nunez, especially if paying up for Sale. Nunez should be leading off against Tom Koehler (previously noted as bad!) Koehler’s struggles with throwing strikes (4.75 BB/9) and Eduardo Nunez is a stolen base threat as well. He’s our preferred cash game option at $2,900 on FanDuel.

Robinson Cano (SEA) presents some middle ground in his matchup with Dylan Bundy. The Mariners are still taking advantage of a huge park upgrade and Dylan Bundy‘s GB% has cratered even lower, bringing about plenty of power upside for Cano who is $3,400 on FanDuel and $4,100 on DraftKings. Jose Ramirez (CLE) is still very cheap on FanDuel and gets a matchup with the aging Jaime Garcia, and Jose Altuve (HOU) would be a magical spend and great tournament option with the platoon edge on Martin Perez.

Third Base

We finally find another spot where we want to get a Coors bat in Nolan Arenado (COL). The Rockies are less of a must in their matchup with Michael Fulmer, but still have an implied run total nearing six runs and Arenado has been excellent of late (positive delta in Hard% over last fifteen days). On FanDuel, you’ll need to decide if he might be your “one spend” at the position, but on DraftKings we can find a way to fit him in with savings in other spots and through the second starting pitcher. After Arenado, Evan Longoria (TB) continues to rate well in our model where he is still very cheap on both sites. Anthony Rendon (WSH) is a cheaper, high upside option at 3B on FanDuel at $3,400. Furthermore, Rendon has posted a .367 wOBA and .176 ISO against LHP since 2015. Rafael Devers (BOS) will look to exploit the home run prone nature of Tom Koehler, he’s only $3,000 on FanDuel and gets you more access to the Red Sox. Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM), Jose Ramirez (CLE), and Freddie Freeman (ATL) all have dual positional eligibility that make them options at the position as well.

Shortstop

Jean Segura (SEA), Paul DeJong (STL), and Jose Reyes (NYM) are the top trio at the shortstop position. Segura is the most stable, and is our preference for cash games where he is $3,800 on DraftKings and $2,900 on FanDuel. He’s taking advantage of a big park shift in his favor, and will be the road leadoff hitter against Dylan Bundy. DeJong and Reyes will both be getting big park upgrades as well, but both have some flaws. DeJong struggles with putting the ball in play, luckily his matchup with Matt Garza pits him against an opposing K% of just 15.6%. At $4,000 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel he’s your best upside play at the position. Reyes is a bit of an unknown, an option because of the potential savings he presents at $2,500 on FanDuel. He has lead off a few different times this week, and we are currently anticipating he hits there again, but if he does not he’ll be removed from the conversation. After this group, Zack Cozart (CIN) and Didi Gregorius (NYY) follow just behind as far as per dollar plays. They come with less upside overall, but are in great parks for damage.

Outfield

A handful of names come before Charlie Blackmon (COL) today in the per dollar rankings. Nevertheless, Blackmon’s terrorizing ability against RHP (.397 wOBA, .247 ISO since 2015) makes him an excellent option if getting exposure to Coors Field. A handful of options though rank ahead of him on both sites in the per dollar category: Mike Trout (LAA), Eric Thames (MIL) (DK Only), Billy Hamilton (CIN), Ryan Braun (MIL), and Mookie Betts (BOS) all rate better overall. Trout needs little justification, with a matchup with journeyman right-hander Chris Smith. Billy Hamilton is just $2,800 on FanDuel and $3,900 on DraftKings. The Reds have an implied run total greater than five runs and the allure for Hamilton comes with Flexen’s inability to throw strikes (6.43 BB/9, 6.57 xFIP). One time on base is all it takes to ensure a valuable night. Braun is absurdly cheap at just $3,200 on DraftKings. The right-right matchup with Luke Weaver isn’t overly enticing and the batted ball data is poor, but a great lineup spot and park for a hitter with a .214 ISO against RHP since 2015 is enough to pull us in. Betts is just another Red Sox option against the homer prone Tom Koehler in Toronto.

Justin Upton (DET) brings into play absurd batted ball data, and is getting a huge park shift to Coors Field. You will certainly have to pay to utilize his services, but he makes for an excellent tournament pivot where Trout or Blackmon might generate more ownership. Carlos Gonzalez (COL) remains a very cheap way to get exposure to Coors Field, but is coming off a night where he was scratched after lock – so we’re unsure of his status at this time. Max Kepler (MIN) and Eddie Rosario (MIN) are ways to attack James Shields in their home park, and Boog Powell (OAK) has been leading off against RHP for Oakland, bringing about a pure punt option.

Stacks

Tier One

1) Colorado Rockies

The Rockies once again project well ahead of everyone else in this slate, but this time they draw a more of a difficult matchup against Michael Fulmer. Fulmer’s run prevention has been great (though the xFIP and HR/FB rate continue to point towards regression), but the K rate is down (17% this season) and if anything does him in in the best hitting environment in all of baseball it will be a below average K rate. Behind Fulmer is one of the worst bullpens in the league, too.

Tier Two

2) Detroit Tigers

3) Minnesota Twins

4) Cincinnati Reds

We realize that the Tigers are the road equation of Coors Field tonight, but in reality we’re more excited to roster the Twins and Reds. The Twins are getting a massive IRT at home (5.7 runs) as they take on James Shields. Shields is allowing 2.22 HR/9 this season and that’s backed up by 45% FB rate. In other words, he sucks and we love to pick on pitchers that suck and allow HRs. The Reds are at home (top five hitting environment and very friendly for HRs) facing Chris Flexen. The latter has a 6.75 xFIP through six starts. We like the addition of Scott Schebler to the Reds lineup as it gives us another power upside bat that’s unlikely to carry big ownership given his lineup spots (usually sixth or seventh).

Tier Three

5) Chicago Cubs

6) Boston Red Sox

7) Baltimore Orioles

8) Miami Marlins

9) Seattle Mariners

10) New York Yankees

This is a large tier of teams and outside of the Cubs and Red Sox, they all project very similarly. You can make an argument for any of these teams as stacks in tournaments, but the Cubs project ahead of the pack for a reason (upside, particularly at the top of the lineup with Schwarber-Bryant-Rizzo). The Red Sox have let us down from an upside perspective, but they draw Tom Koehler in a much better hitting environments for their LHBs.

Contrarian Stacks

Houston Astros: What will win out? The Trop or an offense that’s stacked vs. LHP? We’ll go with the latter, especially when that SP is Martin Perez.

Milwaukee Brewers: You know what you’re getting out of the Brewers when you stack them. They’ll either K a bunch or hit for power and run. Luke Weaver has pitched well, but the price tags on these Brewers hitters are ridiculously low.